DART Expansion Programme Business Case 24th April 2015 WORKING DRAFT REVISION 5 DART Expansion Programme AECOM / Volterra Partners TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive Summary 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Background ................................................................................................................ 2 1.3 Consideration of Options ............................................................................................ 2 1.4 Transport Planning ..................................................................................................... 3 1.5 Scheme Costs ............................................................................................................ 4 1.6 Scheme Appraisal ...................................................................................................... 5 1.7 Financial Appraisal ..................................................................................................... 6 1.8 Risk, Procurement and Implementation ..................................................................... 6 2 Introduction 7 2.1 General ....................................................................................................................... 7 2.2 Methodology ............................................................................................................... 7 2.3 Project Overview ........................................................................................................ 8 2.4 Background to the Programme ................................................................................ 10 2.5 Business Case ......................................................................................................... 11 3 Programme Context 12 3.1 Dublin’s Heavy Rail Network .................................................................................... 12 3.2 Project Needs & Objectives ..................................................................................... 14 4 Policy Background 19 4.1 European Policy ....................................................................................................... 19 4.2 National Policy .......................................................................................................... 19 4.3 Regional Policy ......................................................................................................... 22 4.4 Local Policy .............................................................................................................. 24 4.5 Future Policy ............................................................................................................ 25 4.6 Policy Conclusions ................................................................................................... 25 5 Consideration of Options 26 5.1 Options Overview ..................................................................................................... 26 5.2 Heavy Rail ................................................................................................................ 27 5.3 Light Rail .................................................................................................................. 33 5.4 Bus & BRT ................................................................................................................ 35 5.5 Assessment of Alternatives ...................................................................................... 37 Business Case – Working Draft DART Expansion Programme AECOM / Volterra Partners 5.6 Options Summary..................................................................................................... 41 6 The Preferred Scheme 42 6.1 Overview of the Scheme .......................................................................................... 42 6.2 Programme Development ........................................................................................ 43 6.3 DART Expansion Ancillary Elements ....................................................................... 46 7 Transport Planning 48 7.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 48 7.2 The NTA Transport Model ........................................................................................ 48 7.3 Model Scenarios....................................................................................................... 51 7.4 Model Results ........................................................................................................... 57 7.5 Differences from Previous Business Case ............................................................... 72 8 Scheme Costs 74 8.1 Cost Overview .......................................................................................................... 74 8.2 Capital Cost .............................................................................................................. 74 8.3 Operation & Maintenance Cost ................................................................................ 76 8.4 Cost Profile & Escalation .......................................................................................... 77 8.5 DART Underground Project ..................................................................................... 78 8.6 Cost Summary .......................................................................................................... 79 9 Scheme Appraisal 80 9.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 80 9.2 Economy .................................................................................................................. 80 9.3 Safety ....................................................................................................................... 90 9.4 Environmental .......................................................................................................... 90 9.5 Accessibility and Social Inclusion ............................................................................. 90 9.6 Integration ................................................................................................................ 90 9.7 Project Appraisal Balance Sheet .............................................................................. 90 9.8 Appraisal Summary .................................................................................................. 93 10 Wider Economic Benefits 94 10.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 94 10.2 Application of WEBs ................................................................................................. 94 10.3 Move to More Productive Jobs ................................................................................. 95 10.4 Results ..................................................................................................................... 95 10.5 Sensitivity Test ......................................................................................................... 96 Business Case – Working Draft DART Expansion Programme AECOM / Volterra Partners 10.6 Summary .................................................................................................................. 96 11 Financial Appraisal 97 11.1 Overview .................................................................................................................. 97 11.2 Fare Revenue ........................................................................................................... 97 11.3 Exchequer Impact .................................................................................................... 99 11.4 Iarnród Éireann Financial Appraisal ....................................................................... 100 11.5 DART Underground Project ................................................................................... 101 11.6 Financial Appraisal Summary ................................................................................ 102 12 Risk Assessment 103 12.1 Technical ................................................................................................................ 103 12.2 Economic ................................................................................................................ 103 12.3 Third Party .............................................................................................................. 104 12.4 Project Management .............................................................................................. 104 12.5 Operation & Maintenance ...................................................................................... 104 12.6 Health & Safety ...................................................................................................... 104 13 Procurement 105 13.1 Procurement Overview ........................................................................................... 105 13.2 Funding .................................................................................................................. 105 13.3 Procurement Options ............................................................................................. 105 13.4 Procurement Summary .......................................................................................... 106 14 Proposals for Implementation 107 14.1 Implementation ......................................................................................................