Regulatory Analysis Proposed Rulemaking to Address Mitigation of Beyond-Design-Basis Events U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission October 2015 Regulatory Analysis: Page i Proposed Rulemaking to Address Mitigation of Beyond-Design-Basis Events Table of Contents Executive Summary ...................................................................................................................................... 1 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................................ 3 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................................... 5 1.2 Statement of the Problem and Nuclear Regulatory Commission Objectives for the Rulemaking ... 8 2. Identification and Preliminary Analysis of Alternative Approaches ....................................................... 9 2.1 Option 1: Take No Action (Considered-Not Selected) .................................................................... 9 2.2 Option 2: Undertake Rulemaking to Require SAMGs and Make Order EA-12-049, Order EA-12- 051, and Industry Initiatives Generically Applicable (Considered-Not Selected) .................................... 10 2.3 Option 3: Undertake Rulemaking to Make Order EA-12-049, Order EA-12-051, and Industry Initiatives Generically Applicable (NRC Selected) .................................................................................. 11 2.4 Non-rulemaking Alternatives .......................................................................................................... 11 3. Estimation and Evaluation of Benefits and Costs: Presentation of Results ...................................... 11 3.1 Methodology and Assumptions ...................................................................................................... 12 Affected Universe ................................................................................................................................. 12 Cost Estimation .................................................................................................................................... 16 Time Period of Analysis ....................................................................................................................... 18 Present Value Calculations .................................................................................................................. 18 3.2 Summary of Costs and Benefits of the Regulatory Options .......................................................... 19 3.3 Costs of the Proposed Rule ........................................................................................................... 22 3.3.1. Industry Implementation ........................................................................................................... 25 3.3.2 Industry Operation ..................................................................................................................... 30 3.3.3 NRC Implementation ................................................................................................................. 38 3.3.4 NRC Operation .......................................................................................................................... 41 3.4. Benefits of the Proposed Rule ....................................................................................................... 43 3.4.1 Benefits Associated with Public Health (Accident), Occupational Health (Accident), Offsite Property, Onsite Property, and Environmental Considerations ........................................................... 43 3.4.2 Benefits Associated with Regulatory Efficiency ......................................................................... 47 3.5. Disaggregation ............................................................................................................................... 48 3.6. Sensitivity Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 48 4. Decision Rationale for Selection of Proposed Action ......................................................................... 48 4.1 Safety Goal Evaluation ................................................................................................................... 49 4.2 Committee to Review Generic Requirements (CRGR) .................................................................. 49 References .................................................................................................................................................. 51 Regulatory Analysis: Page ii Proposed Rulemaking to Address Mitigation of Beyond-Design-Basis Events List of Exhibits Exhibit 3-1. List of Operating PWR and BWR Sites ................................................................................... 14 Exhibit 3-2. Operating Site Counts by SAMGs and Reactor Type............................................................. 15 Exhibit 3-3. COL Applications that Reference Reactor Designs ................................................................ 15 Exhibit 3-4. Number of COL Applications that Reference New Reactor Designs ...................................... 16 Exhibit 3-5. Wage Rate Estimates by Labor Category .............................................................................. 17 Exhibit 3-6. Summary of Incremental Costs and Benefits for Option 1: No Action Baseline ..................... 19 Exhibit 3-7. Summary of Total Costs for Option 2: Undertake Rulemaking to Require SAMGs and Make the Orders and Industry Initiatives Generically Applicable ................................................................. 20 Exhibit 3-8. Summary of Incremental Costs and Benefits for Option 2 ..................................................... 20 Exhibit 3-9. Summary of Total Costs for Option 3: Undertake Rulemaking to Make the Orders and Industry Initiatives Generically Applicable .......................................................................................... 21 Exhibit 3-10. Summary of Incremental Costs and Benefits for Option 3 ................................................... 21 Exhibit 3-11. Summary of Industry and NRC Total Costs for Option 2 ...................................................... 24 Exhibit 3-12. Summary of Industry and NRC Total Costs for Option 3 ...................................................... 25 Exhibit 3-13. Present Value of Industry’s Implementation Cost for Option 2 ............................................. 26 Exhibit 3-14. Industry Implementation Cost: SAMGs ................................................................................. 27 Exhibit 3-15. Industry Implementation Cost: Integration of Emergency Procedures with SAMGs ............ 27 Exhibit 3-16. Industry Implementation: SAMGs Command and Control .................................................... 28 Exhibit 3-17. Industry Implementation Cost: SAMGs Training ................................................................... 28 Exhibit 3-18. Industry Implementation Cost: SAMGs Drills and Exercises ................................................ 29 Exhibit 3-19. Industry Implementation Cost: SAMGs Change Control ...................................................... 30 Exhibit 3-20. Present Value of Industry’s Implementation Cost for Option 3 ............................................. 30 Exhibit 3-21. Present Value of Industry’s Operations Cost for Option 2 .................................................... 31 Exhibit 3-22. Industry Operations Cost: SAMGs (During the Operating Term) ......................................... 32 Exhibit 3-23. Industry Operations Cost: SAMGs (During the First 2 Years of Decommissioning) ............ 32 Exhibit 3-24. Industry Operations: SAMGs Training (During the Operating License Term) ...................... 34 Exhibit 3-25. Industry Operations: SAMGs Training (During the First 2 Years of Decommissioning) ....... 35 Exhibit 3-26. Industry Operations Cost: SAMGs Drills and Exercises ....................................................... 36 Exhibit 3-27. Industry Operations Cost: SAMGs Change Control (During Operating License Term) ...... 37 Exhibit 3-28. Industry Operations Cost: SAMGs Change Control (During the First 2 Years of Decommissioning) .............................................................................................................................. 38 Exhibit 3-29. Present Value of NRC Implementation Cost ........................................................................ 39 Exhibit 3-30. NRC Implementation Cost: Developing and Issuing the Final Rule ..................................... 39 Exhibit 3-31. NRC Implementation Cost: SAMGs ...................................................................................... 40 Exhibit 3-32. NRC Implementation Cost: SAMGs Drills and Exercises ..................................................... 40 Exhibit 3-33. NRC Implementation Cost: SAMGs Change Control ........................................................... 40 Exhibit 3-34. Present Value of NRC’s Operations Cost ............................................................................. 41 Exhibit 3-35. NRC Operations Cost: SAMGs ............................................................................................