PICES Sixteenth Annual Meeting The changing North Pacific: Previous patterns, future projections, and ecosystem impacts October 26 – November 5, 2007 Victoria, British Columbia, Canada Table of Contents Victoria Conference Centre (floor plan) ..............................................................................................................iv Notes for guidance................................................................................................................................................ v Keynote Lecture..................................................................................................................................................vii Schedules and Abstracts S1 Science Board Symposium............................................................................................................... 1 S2 BIO/POC Topic Session................................................................................................................. 15 S3 CCCC/FIS Topic Session............................................................................................................... 33 S4 FIS Topic Session........................................................................................................................... 45 S5 FIS/CCCC/BIO Topic Session....................................................................................................... 63 S6 MEQ Topic Session........................................................................................................................ 81 S7 MEQ/FIS Topic Session................................................................................................................. 89 S8/S10 MONITOR/TCODE Topic Session ............................................................................................... 97 S9 POC/CCCC/MONITOR Topic Session ....................................................................................... 119 S11 BIO/FIS/POC Topic Session........................................................................................................ 129 BIO Contributed Paper Session............................................................................................................ 141 CCCC Contributed Paper Session............................................................................................................ 161 FIS Contributed Paper Session............................................................................................................ 171 POC Contributed Paper Session............................................................................................................ 195 Observer Posters ........................................................................................................................................ 221 W1 BIO Workshop ............................................................................................................................. 223 W2 FIS Workshop .............................................................................................................................. 227 W3 FIS/MEQ Workshop..................................................................................................................... 235 W4 MEQ Workshop........................................................................................................................... 243 W5 MONITOR/BIO Workshop.......................................................................................................... 253 W6 POC/CCCC Workshop................................................................................................................. 259 WG-21 Scientific Presentations ................................................................................................................ 263 Author Index..................................................................................................................................................... 265 Registrants ........................................................................................................................................................ 281 PICES Structure................................................................................................................................................ 310 Abstracts for oral presentations are sorted first by session and then by presentation time. Abstracts for posters are sorted by paper ID number. Presenter name is in bold-face type and underlined. The Author Index lists all authors and co-authors in alphabetical order and includes their paper ID numbers and page numbers. Some abstracts in this collection are not edited and printed in the condition they were received. iii iv Notes for guidance Presentations In order to allow the sessions to run smoothly, and in fairness to other speakers, please note that all presentations are expected to adhere strictly to the time allocated. (On average, time slots for contributed oral presentations are 20 minutes. All authors should allocate at least 5 minutes for questions.) Authors should provide their presentations on CDs or USB memory sticks, preferably a day before their presentations to PICES staff for uploading, in the registration area. PowerPoint is the preferred media for oral presentations. If complications occur due to incompatibilities between PCs and Macs, Macintosh owners may use their own computers to make presentations. Posters Posters will be on display from October 29 (a.m.) until the end of the Wine & Cheese Poster Session on the evening of November 1, when poster presenters are expected to be available to answer questions. Posters must be removed in the morning of November 2. The location for poster displays is at the Courtyard Pavilion, Victoria Conference Centre (VCC). Internet access Internet access via wireless LAN will be available in the VCC, lobby area ONLY. A few desktop computers will also be available for participants to use. Social activities 29 October (18:00-20:30) Welcome Reception hosted by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (Royal BC Museum) 31 October (20:00-23:00) Canada Games: Curling (Juan de Fuca Curling Club; a bus will be provided at 19:30) 1 November (18:30-20:30) Wine & Cheese Poster Session (Courtyard Pavilion, VCC) v K eynote Lecture The North Pacific, human activity, and climate change Kenneth Denman1,2 1 Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, c/o University of Victoria, P.O. Box 1700 STN CSC, Victoria, BC, V8W 2Y2; Canada 2 Institute of Ocean Sciences, 9860 West Saanich Road, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada. E-mail: [email protected] Humans are profoundly altering the oceans – by changing the climate through the burning of fossil fuels, by overfishing, and by physical and chemical alteration of the coastal zone. Human-induced warming of the oceans can be detected to depths of thousands of meters. The rate of sea level rise, due to the warming expansion of seawater and freshwater input from glacial and snow melt, has accelerated over the last two decades. Nearly half the CO2 that has been emitted into the atmosphere through human activities, primarily fossil fuel and biomass burning, now resides in the oceans. This ‘anthropogenic’ CO2 can be detected to the bottom of the ocean, and has already made it more acidic, further reducing the ocean’s ability to accept more CO2 from the atmosphere. In Canada, in 2006 we marked 50 years of sampling along Line P and at Ocean Station Papa, and this year marks 100 years of sampling fisheries ecosystems by the Pacific Biological Station. From these and sustained sampling programmes by other PICES member nations, we have determined that the subarctic North Pacific represents the state of future global oceans. It is more stratified. Subsurface dissolved oxygen is decreasing. And the depth below which calcareous organisms are subjected to dissolution is already only a few hundred metres in some areas. By 2100 this increasing acidity in the North Pacific risks the dissolution and disappearance of calcareous organisms such as coccolithophorids, pteropods and the cold water corals found in some British Columbia fjords. More frequent harmful algal blooms seem to occur in some coastal regions, and ‘dead zones’ with anoxic conditions that kill large numbers of benthic invertebrates may be more frequent in others. To what extent are these findings caused by human activities and climate change? From coupled carbon-climate models we can forecast future CO2-related changes in the North Pacific seawater for different scenarios of human development, but we cannot yet predict how the community structure of marine planktonic foodwebs will change, and what the possible feedbacks will be, both to ocean biogeochemical cycles and to higher trophic levels including living marine resources. We need to develop such ‘end-to-end’ foodweb and biogeochemistry models and embed them in comprehensive climate models. This modelling requires sustained sampling and focused scientific studies in both the coastal and open ocean. PICES collaboration is essential to address this challenge. vii Schedules and Abstracts PICES Sixteenth Annual Meeting Science Board Symposium The changing North Pacific: Previous patterns, future projections, S1 and ecosystem impacts Co-convenors: Kuh Kim (SB), John E. Stein (SB), Michael J. Dagg (BIO), Gordon H. Kruse (FIS), Glen Jamieson (MEQ), Jeffrey J. Napp (MONITOR), Michael G. Foreman (POC), Igor I. Shevchenko (TCODE), Harold P. Batchelder (CCCC), Michio J. Kishi (CCCC), Fangli