Predictive Modeling of Archaeological Site Location in Cuba by April A. Watson A Thesis Submitted to the Faculty of the Dorothy F. Schmidt College of Arts and Letters in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Arts Florida Atlantic University Boca Raton, Florida May 2011 Copyright by April Watson 2011 ii Predictive Modeling of Archaeological Site Location in Cuba by April Watson This thesis was prepared under the direction of the candidate's thesis advisor, Dr. Clifford T. Brown, Department ofAnthropology, and has been approved by the members of her supervisory committee.1t was submitted to the faculty of the Dorothy F. Schmidt ColJege of Arts & Letters and was accepted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master ofArts. MM1'REE: C· ord rown, Ph.D. ~S;"'''f) ~ ~/. Michael Harris, Ph.D. Chair, Department of Man]una Pendakur, Ph.D. Dean, The Dorothy F. Schmidt College ofArts & Letlers 13~ (. 1?,.~"........ Barry T. ossnn, Ph.D. Dean, Graduate College III Acknowledgements I would like thank my committee chair, Dr. Clifford Brown. Without his input and guidance this thesis would not have been possible. I would also like to thank my thesis committee, Dr. Charles Roberts, Dr. Michael Harris, and Bruce Larson, M.A., R.P.A., as well as the Departments of Anthropology and Geosciences. The kindness and support given me by these departments was invaluable. Acknowledgements are also due to Dr. Jago Cooper of the University of Leicester, for kindly sharing his work, and Marisa Montesino for photographing the artifacts from Guantánamo Bay. Finally, I would like to thank my family and friends, for their encouragement and humor over the last three years. iv Abstract Author: April Watson Title: Predictive Modeling of Archaeological Site Location in Cuba Institution: Florida Atlantic University Thesis Advisor: Dr. Clifford Brown Degree: Master of Arts Year: 2011 This work aimed at aiding academic and CRM professionals in archaeology by developing a predictive model of prehistoric sites on the southeastern coast of Cuba. The variables in this model were identified by previous archaeological research at Guantánamo Bay Naval Station. Both GIS analysis and weights of evidence testing were conducted on the model. The results of the GIS and statistical analysis allowed for refinement of the model. Cuba is central to understanding the prehistoric settlement of the Caribbean. The model explored not only site occurrence and environmental correlations, but also looked at intersite correlations. It was determined that site occurrences are strongly linked to low elevation, proximity to other sites, south-facing areas, mangroves, and geologic formations. This model may add to the understanding of the prehistoric settling of Cuba, as well as the interactions between native groups. v Dedication To Monty and Jack My light in dark places. Predictive Modeling of Archaeological Site Location in Cuba Table of Contents .............................................................................................................. vii List of Figures .................................................................................................................... xi List of Tables ................................................................................................................... xiv Chapter One: Introduction .................................................................................................. 1 Preface............................................................................................................................. 1 Significance of Research................................................................................................. 3 Environmental Background ............................................................................................ 3 Caribbean environment ............................................................................................... 4 Cuban environment ..................................................................................................... 7 Geology. ...................................................................................................................... 9 Paleo-environment .................................................................................................... 10 Theoretical Background ................................................................................................ 11 Predictive modeling .................................................................................................. 11 Chapter Two: Archaeological Background ...................................................................... 15 Cultural Overview ......................................................................................................... 15 Cuban Archaeology .................................................................................................. 15 vii Cuban site classification system ................................................................................... 16 Preagroalfarero (recolocetores cazadores). ............................................................ 16 Protoagricola ............................................................................................................ 18 Agroalfarero ............................................................................................................. 19 North American site classification system .................................................................... 21 Lithic Period.............................................................................................................. 21 Archaic period ........................................................................................................... 22 Ceramic period .......................................................................................................... 24 Historic period .......................................................................................................... 28 Previous Archaeological Research ............................................................................... 29 Chapter Three: Methodology ............................................................................................ 40 Research question ......................................................................................................... 40 Data collection: defining predictive factors .................................................................. 41 Preprocessing of GIS Data ............................................................................................ 45 Methods for Laboratory Analysis ................................................................................. 53 Methods for GIS Analysis ............................................................................................ 58 Methods for Statistical Analysis ................................................................................... 59 Chapter Four: Analysis ..................................................................................................... 63 Laboratory Analysis: Guantánamo Bay Naval Station sites 1, 3, 7, and 40 ................. 63 GTMO 1 .................................................................................................................... 63 viii GTMO 3 .................................................................................................................... 73 GTMO 7 .................................................................................................................... 77 GTMO 40 .................................................................................................................. 79 Summary ................................................................................................................... 82 GIS Analysis by Time Period ....................................................................................... 83 Preagroalfarero period: (Guayabo Blanco/Cayo Redondo) Ciboney ...................... 84 Protoagricola period: Mayari ................................................................................. 100 Agroalfarero period: Sub-Taino and Taino ............................................................ 112 Study Area Sites ...................................................................................................... 128 Summary ................................................................................................................. 141 Statistical Analysis ...................................................................................................... 147 Chapter Five: Results and Conclusions .......................................................................... 162 Discussion of other settlement patterns: The West Indies .......................................... 162 Local Settlement Pattern Studies ............................................................................ 162 National settlement patterns: Cuba ......................................................................... 165 Regional Settlement Patterns: The Antilles ........................................................... 167 Discussion of Results: GIS, Statistical Analysis, and Comparisons to ...................... 170 other settlement patterns ............................................................................................. 170 Avenues for Further Research .................................................................................... 176 Appendix