Proceedings of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference, February 11–14, 2008: Painting the Big Picture Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5013 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey Cover: Graphic depicting the four U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) science disciplines (Water, Geology, Geography, and Biology) was taken from the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference logo. Proceedings of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference, February 11–14, 2008: Painting the Big Picture Edited by Shailaja R. Brady Scientific Investigations Report 2008–5013 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior KEN SALAZAR, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2009 For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment, visit http://www.usgs.gov or call 1-888-ASK-USGS For an overview of USGS information products, including maps, imagery, and publications, visit http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod To order this and other USGS information products, visit http://store.usgs.gov Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Abstracts in this volume written by U.S. Geological Survey authors have been reviewed and approved for publication by the USGS. Abstracts submitted by researchers from academia and from other State, Federal, and international agencies are published as part of these proceedings but do not necessarily reflect the Survey’s policies and views. Suggested citation: Brady, S.R., ed.., 2009, Proceedings of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference, February 11–14, 2008—Painting the Big Picture: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2009–5013, 70 p., available only online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2009/5013. iii Preface The Second USGS Modeling Conference was held February 11–14, 2008, in Orange Beach, Ala. Participants at the conference came from all U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) regions and represented all four science disciplines—Biology, Geography, Geology, and Water. Representatives from other Department of the Interior (DOI) agencies and partners from the academic community also participated. The conference, which was focused on “painting the big picture,” emphasized the following themes: Integrated Landscape Monitoring, Global Climate Change, Ecosystem Modeling, and Hazards and Risks. The conference centered on providing a forum for modelers to meet, exchange information on current approaches, identify specific opportunities to share existing models and develop more linked and integrated models to address complex science questions, and increase collaboration across disciplines and with other organizations. Abstracts for the 31 oral presentations and more than 60 posters presented at the conference are included here. The conference also featured a field trip to review scientific modeling issues along the Gulf of Mexico. The field trip included visits to Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Grand Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, the 5 Rivers Delta Resource Cen- ter, and Bon Secour National Wildlife Refuge. On behalf of all the participants of the Second All-USGS Modeling Conference, the conference organizing committee expresses our sincere appreciation for the support of field trip organizers and leaders, including the managers from the various Reserves and Refuges. The organizing committee for the conference included Jenifer Bracewell, Sally Brady, Jacoby Carter, Thomas Casadevall, Linda Gundersen, Tom Gunther, Heather Henkel, Lauren Hay, Pat Jellison, K. Bruce Jones, Kenneth Odom, and Mark Wildhaber. This page intentionally left blank. v Contents Preface ...........................................................................................................................................................iii Monitoring Snow Water Status With a Distributed Snowmelt Model (Poster) ...................................1 Three-Dimensional Circulation and Transport Modeling in Devils Lake, North Dakota (Oral Presentation) ...........................................................................................................................1 Addressing the Vulnerability of Western Mountain Ecosystems and Water Resources to Climate Change With RHESSys, the Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (Oral Presentation) ..........................................................................................................................2 The Puget Sound Integrated Landscape Monitoring Project (Poster) .................................................2 A New Method of Multiscale Topographic Analysis: Extracting Landforms (Poster) ........................3 Taking SPARROW Predictions to the Web: A Tool For Research and Resource Management (Poster) ..............................................................................................................................................3 Strategic Habitat Conservation (SHC) and the Importance of Ecosystem Models (Oral Presentation) ...........................................................................................................................4 Numerical Simulation of Ground-Water Flow Within the Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifers of North Carolina and South Carolina (Poster) ...........................................................................4 MOAB: Modeling Individual Movement and Behavior Using an Expert System Approach (Poster) ..............................................................................................................................................5 Modeling Nutria (Myocastor coypus) Invasions Across Regional and National Landscapes (Poster) ...............................................................................................................................................5 Communicating Remote Sensing Requirements and Working Together to Satisfy Project Needs (Poster) ....................................................................................................................6 Data Management and Interoperability in the USGS Volcano Hazards Program (Oral Presentation) ...........................................................................................................................6 Cost-Benefit Analysis of Computer Resources for Machine Learning (Poster) .................................7 EdGCM: An Interactive Climate Modeling Framework for Educators and Scientists (Oral Presentation) ..........................................................................................................................7 Mutually Interactive State-Parameter Estimation of a Carbon Cycle Model Using a Smoothed Ensemble Kalman Filter (Poster) ...............................................................................7 Hydrodynamic and Water Quality Modeling of the A.R.M. Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, North Everglades, Florida (Poster) .................................................................................8 Toward a National Land-Change Community Model (Oral Presentation) ............................................8 Application of a Multimodeling Framework to Linking Ecosystem Pattern and Process Across Scales: A Tale of Two Ecosystem Models (Oral Presentation) ...................................9 Modeling Natural Resource Management Decision Scenarios Using Decision Analysis: The Flow of Selenium in Appalachian Watersheds from Rocks to Ducks (Oral Presentation) ..........................................................................................................................9 A Proposed Ecosystem Simulation Model to Predict the Effects of Common Carp and Zebra Mussels in Shallow Lake Ecosystems (Poster) ........................................................................10 Integrating 3-D Hydrodynamic Transport and Ecological Plant Models of the Savannah River Estuary Using Artificial Neural Network Models (Poster) .....................................................10 Using Data Mining Techniques and Artificial Neural Network Models to Integrate Hydrology, Ecology, and Biology—Two Case Studies (Oral Presentation) ..........................10 Animation and Publication of Three-Dimensional and Four-Dimensional Physical Models (Poster) ............................................................................................................................................11 vi Modeling an Aquatic Trophic Chain in a Two-Dimensional Topography in a Seasonally Varying Wetland (Poster) ..............................................................................................................12 The Land Use Portfolio Model: A Tool for Natural-Hazards Risk Analysis (Oral Presentation) ......12 Forecasting the 21st Century World-Wide Status of Polar Bears Using a Bayesian Network Modeling Approach (Poster) ........................................................................................................13 Modeling Past, Present, and Future Polar Bear Habitats (Oral Presentation) .................................13 HURASIM: Hurricane Simulation Model for Reconstructing Wind Fields and Landfall Frequencies of Historic Storms (Poster) ....................................................................................14