NUREG/CR-6622 Probabilistic Liquefaction Analysis U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Washington, DC 20555-0001 AVAILABILITY NOTICE Availability of Reference Materials Cited in NRC Publications series, NRC regu NRC Public Document Room NRC publications in the NUREG 2120 L Street, N.W., Lower Level 10, energy, of the Code of Federal lations, and Title Washington, DC 20555-0001 may be purchased from one of the fol Regulations, <http://www.nrc.gov/NRC/PDR/pdrl.htm> lowing sources: 1-800-397-4209 or locally 202-634-3273 1. The Superintendent of Documents Microfiche of most NRC documents made publicly Government Printing Office U.S. available since January 1981 may be found in the PO. Box 37082 Local Public Document Rooms (LPDRs) located in Washington, DC 20402-9328 the vicinity of nuclear power plants. 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E. Hynes U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 3909 Halls Ferry Road Vicksburg, MS 39180-6199 E. G. Zurflueh, NRC Project Manager Prepared for Division of Engineering Technology Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555-0001 NRC Job Code W6246 Probabilistic Liquefaction: ;nalysis ABSTRACT This document provides a technical basis for formulating probabilistic approaches to liquefaction evalu ation. The three basic elements of probabilistic liquefaction analysis are described: (1) uncertainty in the earthquake load, (2) uncertainty in the available resistance, and (3) uncertainty in the method of analysis. The probabilistic approach is built from the steps in a deterministic liquefaction analysis; however, the input parameters, such as penetration resistance, site stratigraphy, acceleration, and magnitude, are treated as random variables and the accuracy of the method of analysis is factored in as part of a capacity-demand model. Uncertainty in the earthquake load is generally treated with a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis which introduces time as a parameter. The site stratigraphy and engineering properties are generally treated as one-, two-, or three-dimensional random fields. Uncertainty in the method of analysis is generally estimated with logit regression analysis of the field performance data base. It is assumed that the reader has a working knowledge of probability theory, stochastic processes, liquefaction evaluation, and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis calculations. iii N NUREG/CR-6622 Probabilistic Liquefaction Analysis TABLE OF CONTENTS A B STR A C T ........................................................................ iii PREFA CE ......................................................................... vi 1 IN TRODU CTION ................................................................. 1 2 UNCERTAINTY IN EARTHQUAKE LOAD ........................................... 1 2.1 A pparatus .................................................................... 1 2.2 Probabilistic Site Response ...................................................... 2 2.3 Artificial Earthquake Records .................................................... 3 3 UNCERTAINTY IN LIQUEFACTION RESISTANCE .................................... 3 3.1 Calculation of Liquefaction Resistance ............................................ 3 3.2 Spatial M odeling of the Soil Deposit ............................................... 5 4 UNCERTAINTY IN METHOD OF LIQUEFACTION ANALYSIS .......................... 6 4.1 Uncertainty in the Seed-Idriss Chart ............................................... 6 4.2 Other Types of Analysis and Inputs ............................................... 13 4.2.1 Cone Penetration Test .................................................... 13 4.2.2 Shear Wave Velocity, Becker and Large Penetrometer Tests ..................... 13 4.2.3 Arias Intensity and SPT .................................................. 13 4.2.4 Liquefiable Fine-Grained Soils ............................................. 14 4.2.5 Steady-State Liquefaction Evaluation ........................................ 14 4.2.6 Advanced Constitutive Models and Deformation Codes ......................... 14 5 CAPACITY-DEMAND MODEL .................................................... 16 6 DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE ..................................................... 19 REFERENCES ..................................................................... 22 APPENDIX A BIBLIOGRAPHY .................................................... A-1 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 4.1. Logit results for sands with <12 percent fines after Liao et al. (1988) and Liao (1996) (figure from Youd and Noble 1997) ................................................. 8 Figure 4.2. Logit results for sands with >12 percent fines after Liao et al. (1988) and Liao (1996) (figure from Youd and Noble 1997) ................................................. 8 Figure 4.3. Logit results from Youd and Noble (1997) ...................................... 9 Figure 4.4. Liao et al. (1988) and Youd and Noble (1997) logit results plotted against Seed et al. (1985) curve for clean sands (after Youd and Noble 1997) ............................... 10 Figure 4.5. Interim logit results from Dr. Seed (1998) for clean sands ......................... 11 Figure 4.6. Interim logit results from Dr. Seed (1998) for <5, 15, and >35 percent fines ........... 12 Figure 4.7. Logit results for Arias Intensity (this study) from data by Kayen and Mitchell (1997) .... 15 V NUREG/CR-6622 Probabilistic Liquefaction Analysis Figure 5.1. Triggering combination of peak ground acceleration and magnitude given N,,,o . 17 Figure 5.2. Deaggregated PSHA hazard curves for example problem .......................... 18 Figure 5.3. Approach to determine annual probability of liquefaction using Arias Intensity ........ 21 LIST OF TABLES Table 5.1 Probability of Liquefaction Calculation for Example Problem ....................... 20 NUREG/CR-6622 vi Probabilistic Liquefaction Analysis PREFACE The study described in this report was performed by the U.S. Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station (WES) for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) under Inter-Agency Agreement RES-95-008 during the period June, 1995, to January, 1999. The study was directed by Mr. Robert