TRACK-ONE DIPLOMACY AND POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION: KENYA’S MEDIATION OF THE SOMALI CONFLICT AND STRATEGIC INTERVENTION AVENUES PHILIP ARTHUR NJUGUNA MWANIKA Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor Philosophiae (D.Phil) in the Faculty of Business and Economic Sciences, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, Port Elizabeth, South Africa April 2013 SUPERVISOR: DR LYN SNODGRASS 1 DEPARTMENT OF ACADEMIC ADMINISTRATION EXAMINATION SECTION SUMMERSTARND NORTH CAMPUS PO Box 77000 Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University Port Elizabeth 6013 Enquiries: Postgraduate Examination Officer DECLARATION BY CANDIDATE NAME: PHILIP ARTHUR NJUGUNA MWANIKA STUDENT NUMBER: S209080295 QUALIFICATION: DOCTOR PHILOSOPHIAE (D.PHIL) TITLE OF THESIS: TRACK-ONE DIPLOMACY AND POST-CONFLICT RECONSTRUCTION: KENYA’S MEDIATION OF THE SOMALI CONFLICT AND STRATEGIC ________________INTERVENTION AVENUES___________________________________________________ DECLARATION: In accordance with Rule G4.6.3, I hereby declare that the above-mentioned treatise/ dissertation/ thesis is my own work, and that it has not previously been submitted for assessment to another University or for another qualification. SIGNATURE: ________________________________________________________ DATE: _____________________________________________________________ 2 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page DECLARATION BY CANDIDATE--------------------------------------------------------2 TABLE OF CONTENTS----------------------------------------------------------------------3 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS------------------------------------------------------------------11 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS --------------------------------------------------12 ABSTRACT------------------------------------------------------------------------------------17 CHAPTER 1: GENERAL INTRODUCTION-----------------------------19 1.0 Introduction----------------------------------------------------------------------------19 1.1 Understanding Somalia, its politics and conflict----------------------------------20 1.1.1 Brief geographical context--------------------------------------------------------20 1.1.2 The Somali people-----------------------------------------------------------------22 1.1.3 The balkanization of Somalia----------------------------------------------------24 1.1.4 Early Somali-Horn of Africa relations and border politics-------------------25 1.1.5 Tracing the Somali conflict-------------------------------------------------------26 1.1.6 Interventions, diplomatic engagement and interests pertaining to the conflict---------------------------------------------------------28 1.1.7 Ethiopia’s interests----------------------------------------------------------------29 1.1.8 Kenya’s interests------------------------------------------------------------------30 1.1.9 Djibouti’s interests----------------------------------------------------------------34 1.2 Eritrea’s interests------------------------------------------------------------------35 1.3 Background to the problem----------------------------------------------------------37 1.3.1 Problem statement---------------------------------------------------------------------40 1.3.2 Aims and objectives-------------------------------------------------------------------41 1.3.3 Research questions--------------------------------------------------------------------41 1.3.4 Study motivation----------------------------------------------------------------------42 1.3.5 Significance of the study-------------------------------------------------------------43 1.3.6 Limitations of the study--------------------------------------------------------------45 1.4 Structure of the study-----------------------------------------------------------------46 1.5 Conclusion------------------------------------------------------------------------------49 3 CHAPTER 2: PROTRACTED CONFLICT, THIRD-PARTY INTERVENTION AND PEACE BUILDING 2.1 Introduction------------------------------------------------------------------------------50 2.2 Section 1: Unpacking principal concepts and terms used in the study--------51 2.2.1 Conflict-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------52 2.2.2 Protracted or intractable conflict------------------------------------------------------57 2.2.3 Conflict management-------------------------------------------------------------------63 2.2.4 Human security--------------------------------------------------------------------------65 2.2.5 Track-one diplomacy-------------------------------------------------------------------66 2.2.6 Track-two diplomacy-------------------------------------------------------------------67 2.2.7 Track-three diplomacy-----------------------------------------------------------------67 2.2.8 Multi-track diplomacy------------------------------------------------------------------68 2.2.9 Small states------------------------------------------------------------------------------68 2.3 Post-conflict reconstruction-----------------------------------------------------------69 2.3.1 Peace-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------73 2.3.2 Peace building--------------------------------------------------------------------------74 2.3.3 Transitional order----------------------------------------------------------------------78 2.3.4 Failed states-----------------------------------------------------------------------------80 2.3.5 Summary of section 1------------------------------------------------------------------81 2.4 Section 2: Conflicts or wars of a third kind-------------------------------------82 2.5 Section 3: Mediation strategies in wars and conflicts of a third kind--------84 2.6 Section 4: Small-state utilization of soft power in track-one diplomatic activities, and in reality to conflicts of a third kind----------------88 2.7 Section 5: Conflict management, development and peace building----------93 2.8 Conclusion------------------------------------------------------------------------------96 CHAPTER 3: INTERMEDIARY ROLES AND CO-OPERATION THEORY 3.0. Introduction ----------------------------------------------------------------------------97 3.1 Contemporary intervention dynamics-----------------------------------------------99 3. 2 Intermediary co-operation in conflict management and development --------------------------------------------------------------------100 3.3. Intermediaries: Track-one (official) and non-official actors-------------------102 3.4. Mediation and intermediary activities---------------------------------------------103 4 3.4.1 Disinterested mediators--------------------------------------------------------------106 3.4.2 Interested mediators------------------------------------------------------------------107 3.4.3 Acceptability and mediation---------------------------------------------------------111 3.4.4 Contemporary mediation------------------------------------------------------------112 3.4.4.1 Mediator appointments and evaluation-------------------------------------------118 3.4.4.2 Collaborative support to mediators------------------------------------------------119 3.4.4.3 A mediation-learning culture------------------------------------------------------120 3.4.4.4 Mediation success through confidence-building approaches-----------------121 3.5 Tracing intermediary processes, activities and roles---------------------------123 3.6 Intermediary co-operation and role theory in peace building-----------------129 3.7 Intermediary roles in the ‘new-governance, development and security environment’-------------------------------------------------------------------------132 3.8 Roles constructs of conflict management, peace building and development-----------------------------------------------------------------------135 3.8.1 Intermediary role theory and human security------------------------------------136 3.8.2 Intermediary roles, co-operation theory and symbiotic track diplomacy-----137 3.8.3 Symbiosis diplomacy----------------------------------------------------------------139 3.9 Conclusion----------------------------------------------------------------------------144 CHAPTER 4: A BACKGROUND TO THE SOMALI CONFLICT AND ITS DYNAMICS 4.0. Introduction---------------------------------------------------------------------------145 4.1. Pre-colonial and colonial status of Somalia--------------------------------------164 4.1.1. Early-development and economic-determinism activities----------------------165 4.1.2. The Somali social matrix and early stages of State collapse-------------------166 4.1.3. Westphalianism: its centrifugal effect on social and political order----------168 4.1.4. The historicity of conflict in Somalia: 1888 – 1960-----------------------------170 4.2. Post-colonial Somalia: 1960 onwards---------------------------------------------172 4.3. Structural violence-------------------------------------------------------------------172 4.3.1. From the ‘happy slave state of affairs’ to ‘overt violence/ hostilities’: 1969 – 1991---------------------------------------------------------------------------174 4.3.2. The collapsed- State phenomenon and its politics:1991 onwards-------------177 4.3.3. Effects of development or humanitarian aid on protracted conflict: 1992-1996------------------------------------------------------------------178 5 4.3.4. Early international initiatives and intervention----------------------------------179 4.4. Conclusion----------------------------------------------------------------------------182 CHAPTER 5