Systems Modeling Approaches to Physical Resource Management An Industrial Ecology Perspective Rajib Sinha Doctoral Thesis Industrial Ecology Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED) KTH Royal Institute of Technology Stockholm, Sweden 2016 Title: Systems Modeling Approaches to Physical Resource Management: An Industrial Ecology Perspective Author: Rajib Sinha Copyright: Copyright c 2016 Rajib Sinha All rights reserved. Papers I-V are reprinted with permission. Paper I c 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. and ERP Environment Paper II c 2016 Elsevier B.V. Paper III c 2010 Elsevier B.V. Paper IV c 2015 Elsevier Ltd. Paper V c 2016 Elsevier Ltd. Registration: TRITA-IM-PHD 2016:04 ISBN: 978-91-7729-077-3 Contact information: Industrial Ecology Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering (SEED) School of Architecture and the Built Environment, KTH Royal Institute of Technology Teknikringen 34, SE-100 44 Stockholm, Sweden Email: [email protected] www.kth.se Printed by: Universitetetsservice US-AB, Stockholm, Sweden, 2016 ii Preface This doctoral thesis1 attempts to capture specific, but also diverse, research interests in the field of industrial ecology. It therefore has a broader scope than a normal PhD thesis. Here, I would like to share my academic journey in composing this thesis to guide the reader in understanding the content and the background. At secondary and higher secondary school (9th-12th grade), I was most interested in mathematics and physics. This led me to study engineering and I completed my BSc in Civil Engineering at BUET, Dhaka, Bangladesh. During my undergraduate studies, I developed a great interest in structural engineering. As a result, I chose finite element analysis of shear stress as my Bachelor's degree project. The title of the dissertation was Analysis of Steel-Concrete Composite Bridges with Special Reference to Shear Connectors. With my interest in environmental engineering and sustainable development, I com- pleted my MSc in Sustainable Technology at the Division of Industrial Ecology, KTH, Stockholm, Sweden. The title of my Master's thesis was Modelling Source and Copper Fate in Lake R˚ackstaTr¨ask,Stockholm: Sediment Copper Content as an Indicator of Urban Metal Emissions. I was then given the opportunity to continue working on the study to help to publish the work, after which I worked as a research engineer at KTH (September 2009-February 2012) in consecutive small projects on: (i) radionuclide sorption onto soil samples, (ii) reactive transport modeling for radionuclide migration, (iii) modeling the effects of mixing and spreading on biodegradable benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes (BTEX) in groundwater, (iv) household metabolism in a global perspective, and (v) energy systems modeling. During that period, I became interested in research methodologies rather than a specific research topic, in particular systems analysis, dynamic modeling, and computer simulation, especially systems dynamics and agent-based modeling. I enrolled as a post-graduate student on March 2012. The project focused on modeling a decentralized energy system for future cities and evaluating how the system can respond to different optimization criteria, such as economy, renewables, greenhouse gas emissions, low carbon, resilience, etc. An agent-based modeling approach was chosen for the systems modeling. After studying for six months, I moved to another research group, Sustainable 1A doctoral thesis can be written either as a dissertation manuscript (monograph) or as a compi- lation thesis with a summarizing chapter (kappa) followed by a compendium of articles. I chose the latter version. iii Production and Consumption, with a broader systems perspective. This group was working with production and consumption systems including a broader systems approach from two different angles: the design perspective and the waste management perspective. Through my interest in systems modeling, I combined the two approaches by modeling energy and material metabolism. During my post-graduate studies, my research specifically focused on the modeling aspects of industrial ecology described in this thesis. This cover essay is based on the results presented in the appended papers (Papers I-V) and briefly describes the most important findings of the work. The modeling approaches used in Papers I-V are discussed in relation to understanding complex systems and accounting to monitor environmental performance. In this synthesis of the tools and modeling approaches used in Papers I-V, it was challenging to present a consistent storyline due to the applications in different environmental management contexts. However, this multi-application background information enriched the dis- cussion of a broader systems approach and the significance of understanding complex systems and monitoring the environmental performance of management actions. The pressure-based, driver-oriented approach that I developed in my licentiate thesis, following the work of Prof. Frostell and Dr. Song, helped me synthesize the modeling approaches into a unified narrative. In addition, the pressure-based, driver-oriented approach showed tremendous potential to disseminate proactiveness in environmental management. As a result, this approach became one of the key messages in the thesis. I hope that the reader will agree! Rajib Sinha, Stockholm, May 2016 iv Acknowledgments I am grateful to Industrial Ecology, KTH for financial support to conduct the research and complete this thesis. I acknowledge financial support from the City Of Stockholm to conduct the research on environmental load profile. My deepest gratitude to my supervisor, Prof. Bj¨ornFrostell, for his inspiration and support in conducting this research and broadening my perspective on sustainability thinking. He gave me freedom to explore; at the same time, he held me on track. Without his guidance, I would not have been able to produce this thesis. I am also grateful to my co-supervisor, Assoc. Prof. Maria Malmstr¨omfor her guidance and continuous support with constructive comments and suggestions. She literally taught me how to write a good scientific article. At the end of my PhD, I had the privilege to obtain a different perspective on my research from my new co-supervisor, Assoc. Prof. Miguel Brand~ao. I would like to thank him for his suggestions, advice, and guidance. Thank you my dear friends, colleagues, and co-authors of the appended pa- pers, Dr. Jagdeep Singh and Dr. Rafael Laurenti, for all your support in our team work. I would like to thank my internal quality reviewer, Prof. Per Lundqvist, for taking the time to read my cover essay and the appended papers. His comments and suggestions helped me enormously to improve the quality of the thesis. I also thank Assoc. Prof. Nils Brandt (Retired), Assoc. Prof. Getachew Assefa, Assoc. Prof. Lars Olsson, Maria Lennartsson, Dr. Qing Cui, Dr. Jiechen Wu, and Guanghong Zhou, co-authors of my papers. Thank you Dr. Daniel Franzen for reviewing the sammanfattning (abstract in Swedish) of my thesis. I am also very thankful to the anonymous reviewers of the paper. I thank Prof. Ronald Wennersten for giving me the opportunity to continue my research career by accepting me as a post-graduate student. Special thanks goes to Karin Orve and Monika Olsson for their support and inspiring conversations throughout the year. I also wish to thank Per Jakobsson, Dr. Asa˚ Moberg, Prof. Jos´e Poting, Assoc. Prof. Cecilia Sundberg, Dr. Annika Carlsson-Kanyama, Assoc. Prof. Fredrik Grndahl, Larsgran Strandberg, Dr. Olga Kordas, Kosta Wallin, Dr. Markus Rob´ert,Per Olof Persson, Prof. Saiful Amin, Assoc. Prof. Koustuv Dalal, and Manik Lal Mandal for their encouragement, support, and good discussions during my research. I would like to express my deepest gratitude to all my teachers. I thank all my friends and colleagues at KTH who helped me make this memorable journey: Joseph, JB, Graham, Hossain, Anders, Louise, David, Hongling, Mauricio, Olekssi, Kate, Mohammad, Aram, Olena, Linus, Sofia, and Yevgeniya. I thank my friends and class mates, Indranil, Sujan Sikder, and Sujan Dutta, for inspiring me to v environmental engineering during my Bachelor's degree. Thank you all, my dear friends, for your help and support during my student life: Topu, Ranjan, Sudip, Koushik, Nayan, Bichitro, Ashis, Surajit, Rima, Lakshmi, Nipa, Biplob Da, Anup Da, Tuhin, Rubel, Fatik, Suman, Shovon, Tanjil, Rezaul, Sushmita, Subarna, Madhumita Dalal, Apu Da, and many more (please count yourself in this list!). On a personal note, it would not be possible for me to have reached my current position without the unconditional love and support of my parents (Ranajit Sinha and Rekha Sinha) and my younger brother (Raju Sinha). I also would like to thank all my relatives for supporting and inspiring me. Thank you ... Snigdha! Rajib Sinha, Stockholm, May 2016 vi Abstract Many of the present problems that we are facing arise as unanticipated side-effects of our own actions. Moreover, the solutions implemented to solve important problems often create new problems. To avoid unintended consequences, understanding complex systems is essential in devising policy instruments and in improving environmental management. Thus, this thesis investigated systems modeling approaches to under- stand complex systems and monitor the environmental performance of management actions. The overall aim of the work was to investigate the usefulness of different systems modeling approaches