12 December 2018 Analysis of informal voting 2016 House of Representatives elections Analysis of informal voting – 2016 House of Representatives elections Page 0 Contents Executive summary ............................................................................................................................ 5 Key findings ........................................................................................................................................ 9 Informal voting at House of Representatives elections .................................................................... 9 Improvements made for the 2016 Informal Ballot Paper Study ...................................................... 10 Categories of informal ballots ........................................................................................................ 11 Assumed unintentional and intentional informality ..................................................................... 12 Factors influencing informal voting ................................................................................................ 12 Socio-demographic factors ........................................................................................................ 13 Number of candidates ................................................................................................................ 13 Differences between electoral systems ...................................................................................... 14 Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 15 Methodology ................................................................................................................................. 15 Voting requirements ................................................................................................................... 16 Categorisation of informal ballot papers ..................................................................................... 17 Comparing 2016 Informal Ballot Paper Study results with previous years .................................. 19 Analysing the demographics of informal voting .......................................................................... 20 Informal voting at House of Representatives elections ...................................................................... 22 Informal votes by vote type ........................................................................................................... 24 Informal votes by division .............................................................................................................. 26 Informality rates by polling place ................................................................................................ 27 Categories of informal ballots ........................................................................................................ 30 National and state/territory summary ......................................................................................... 30 Categories of informal ballots by state and territory ................................................................... 33 Categories of informal ballots in high informality divisions.......................................................... 37 Assumed unintentional and intentional informality ......................................................................... 45 Definitions .................................................................................................................................. 45 National and state/territory summary ......................................................................................... 46 Intentionality in high and low informality divisions ...................................................................... 49 Factors influencing informal voting .................................................................................................... 53 Analysis of informal voting – 2016 House of Representatives elections Page 1 Informal voting as a deliberate choice ........................................................................................ 53 Socio-demographic correlations................................................................................................. 54 Social exclusion and disadvantage ............................................................................................ 58 Number of candidates ................................................................................................................ 62 Differences between electoral systems and proximity between electoral events ........................ 64 By-elections since 2016 .................................................................................................................... 68 The 45th Parliament ................................................................................................................... 68 By-elections in general .............................................................................................................. 68 The Fremantle and Longman by-elections ................................................................................. 69 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................... 72 Trends in informality ...................................................................................................................... 72 Types of informal voting ................................................................................................................ 72 High informality divisions ............................................................................................................... 73 Factors influencing informal voting ................................................................................................ 73 Appendices ....................................................................................................................................... 75 Appendix A. Key terms .................................................................................................................. 75 Appendix B. Explanation of informality categories in the 2016 Informal Ballot Paper Study ........... 77 Appendix C. Informality rates and relative socio-economic advantage/disadvantage, 2016 House of Representatives elections ............................................................................................................. 81 Appendix D. Informal votes by category and state/territory, 2016 House of Representatives elections ........................................................................................................................................ 86 References ....................................................................................................................................... 91 End notes ......................................................................................................................................... 96 Tables Table 1. Informal ballot papers by category, 2016 House of Representatives elections ...................... 7 Table 2. Informal voting by state/territory, 2016 House of Representatives elections ........................ 10 Table 3. Main informality categories, 2016 House of Representatives Informal Ballot Paper Study .. 19 Table 4. Comparability of broad informality categories used for the 2016 Informal Ballot Paper Study ......................................................................................................................................................... 20 Analysis of informal voting – 2016 House of Representatives elections Page 2 Table 5. Informal votes, total votes and informality rates by state/territory, 1984–2016 House of Representatives elections ................................................................................................................. 23 Table 6. Informality rates by vote type, 2001–2016 House of Representatives elections .................. 25 Table 7. Informality history of divisions with the highest and lowest levels of informality in 2016, 2001–2016 House of Representatives elections ............................................................................... 29 Table 8. Proportion of total informal votes by category and state/territory, 2001–2016 House of Representatives elections ................................................................................................................. 34 Table 9. Informality rates by category and state/territory, 2001–2016 House of Representatives elections ........................................................................................................................................... 36 Table 10. Proportion of informal votes by category in the highest informality divisions, 2001–2016 House of Representatives elections .................................................................................................. 41 Table 11. Informality rates by category in the highest informality divisions, 2001–2016 House of Representatives elections ................................................................................................................. 43 Table 12. Assumed unintentional and intentional informal voting by category, 2013–2016 House of Representatives elections ................................................................................................................