Return on Capital Employed Review of 2019 Returns Armillary Private Capital Return on Capital Employed – Review of 2019 Returns 2 Contents Foreword ......................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary ....................................................................................... 4 Top Performers ................................................................................................ 5 Market ............................................................................................................. 6 Listed Companies – Performance by Sector .............................................. 7 International Comparisons ............................................................................ 8 Crown Entities ................................................................................................. 9 Distribution of Results .................................................................................... 10 Spotlight: Transport & Logistics .................................................................... 11 Individual Entities ...........................................................................................15 About Armillary Private Capital ...................................................................19 Sources of Data ............................................................................................ 20 Appendix 1 – Detailed Results .................................................................... 21 Appendix 2 – ROCE explained ................................................................... 29 Disclaimer The information contained in this report has been prepared by Armillary Private Capital (‘Armillary’). While the intention is to provide accurate information based on historical performance and market information, Armillary accepts no liability for any errors or inaccuracies in this report. The reader is advised to perform their own research to confirm the accuracy of the information contained in this report before relying on it for any investment decision making. This report has been prepared as a ‘class service’ as defined by the Financial Advisers Act and is general in nature. Armillary Private Capital Return on Capital Employed – Review of 2019 Returns 3 Foreword We are delighted to present the tenth Armillary Private Capital Return on (but not limited to) gains/losses on asset sales, revaluations, and Capital Employed (‘ROCE’) report. This year the total number of entities unrealised gains. Previous years’ reports were compiled using the CapIQ in our data set of NZX, USX, and selected Crown entities is 142. data base, and so prior year results may differ slightly to previously published results. The ROCE methodology we use in this report was developed by Du Pont Corporation and is therefore not proprietary to us, although we We continue to advocate the ROCE methodology in our work with are proponents. As it is simple to apply, anyone who understands the businesses as a simple to use and easily understood tool for measuring methodology can use it. We regularly use this methodology as a tool in business performance, identifying improvement strategies, creating our client engagements and in our financial training curriculum. incentive remuneration programs, and for testing budgets and forecasts, especially those applied in valuations. We also see the data A benefit of the ROCE methodology is that the performance of an and results in this report as providing useful benchmarks for business entity can be broken down into its components of Profitability and performance in the New Zealand market. Activity, for deeper analysis. Profitability, as measured by EBIT margin, provides an indication of operational efficiency; Activity, as measured We trust that the insights contained in this report provide value to by asset turnover, provides an indication of balance-sheet efficiency. investors, business owners and managers alike. Combined the two ratios give overall ROCE. A full explanation is provided in Appendix 2. Again, this year’s report includes an overview of the major sectors in the economy to demonstrate the effect that differences in business models have on profitability, activity and overall ROCE performance. Analysis has primarily been conducted using the Pitchbook financial platform and where data was not available, information was entered from annual reports. EBIT has been calculated on a normalised basis, adjusting for non-recurring items and non-trading items, including Armillary Private Capital Return on Capital Employed – Review of 2019 Returns 4 Executive Summary Median ROCE (NZX, USX & Crown) 10% 9% 8.62% 8% 6.92% 7% 6.58% This year’s ROCE review of the 2019 financial results included 114 6% companies with primary listings on the NZX, 14 companies from 5% ROCE USX, and 14 Crown Entities. This has resulted in a total sample size 4% of 142 Crown and Listed (“NZX and USX”) firms which is 2 less than 3% last years’ report. 2% 1% Companies have been categorised by eight sectors: Business Products 0% and Services (B2B), Consumer Products and Services (B2C), Energy (incl. 2017 2018 2019 Utilities), Financial Services (incl. Investments), Property, Healthcare, Information Technology and Materials and Resources. • The top 10 performers in 2019 were primarily from the Consumer The median 2019 ROCE performance across all Listed and Crown Products and Services and Business Products and Services sectors, entities has increased to 6.92% from 6.58% in 2018 1. This result remains comprising 7 of the 10 top performers. Consumer Products and shy of common estimates for the market average weighted cost of Services was the best performing sector (median ROCE of 11.9%) capital (WACC) of around 8%. whilst the Healthcare sector recorded the lowest median ROCE of 0.9%. In large part this reflects the sector including several retirement • Zespri Group, listed on the USX, was the top performer with a ROCE village operators and the way normalised EBIT is calculated, which of 234%. This result was due to an improvement in profit margins while excludes fair value gain on properties. also maintaining high Activity. Of all listed firms analysed, Zespri Group strikes the best combination of high Activity and high margins and is • The median ROCE of NZX50 constituent companies was 7.5%, consistently a top performer in our analysis. remaining well behind the median for companies in the S&P500 (15.4%), the ASX200 (13.6%), and the S&P EURO 350 (12.6%). • For the Crown Entities the 2019 median ROCE was 5.0% (down from 8.8% in 2018), with AsureQuality recording the best performance in 1 Please note that we have changed data providers and historic results may well differ from previously published results. that group with a ROCE of 33.4%. Armillary Private Capital Return on Capital Employed – Review of 2019 Returns 5 Top Performers The top 10 entities by 2019 ROCE performance are dominated by businesses that optimise high levels of Activity (Revenue/ Average Net Operating Assets) and high profitability (EBIT (norm.)/Revenue). The top performer was Zespri Group, which had a ROCE of 234% Top 10 ROCE 2019 made up of an 8.1% Profitability Ratio (up from 5.8% in 2018 and 4.5% in 2017) and a 28.9 × Activity Ratio (up from 24.0 × in 2018). This was 2017 2018 2019 also the highest Activity Ratio of our sample. The a2 Milk Company and Hallenstein Glasson both recorded strong ROCE results in 2019 with 240% 156.4% and 71.6%, respectively – albeit that both of these were slightly below their respective 2018 ROCE results. 200% Both Briscoe Group and Fisher & Paykel Healthcare feature again in 160% the top ten with ROCE of 44.6% and 40.7% respectively. QEX Logistics returns for the third year in a row while AsureQuality, Syft Technology, 120% NZX and Plexure are all newcomers to the top 10 with Plexure improving ROCE performance from negative ROCE in each of the last 2 years to a 80% positive 30.9% in 2019. 40% The top three ROCE performers in 2019 for each of the three markets analysed were as follows: 0% • NZX market: The a2 Milk Company (156.4%), Hallenstein Glasson NZX (71.6%) and Briscoe Group (44.6%). Zespri Plexure • USX market: Zespri Group (234.0%), Syft Technologies (33.0%) and AsureQuality QEX Logistics Briscoe Group Briscoe Pharmazen (18.8%). Syft Technology Syft Hallenstein Glasson Hallenstein The a2 Milk Company • Crown Entities: AssureQuality (33.4%), Airways Corporation (17.0%) and Meteorological Service (16.2%). Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Armillary Private Capital Return on Capital Employed – Review of 2019 Returns 6 Market Median Annual ROCE by Market 2017 2018 2019 12% The median result for USX companies improved markedly compared to 10% the previous two years with a 10.6% median ROCE for 2019 up from 3.9% in 2018. With a small sample size of 14, even medians of this segment 8% are prone to be skewed by outliers and Windflow Technology2, Martin Aircraft3 and Sports & Education4 were not included in the 2019 sample. 6% Three newcomers to the market include Palliser Estate, TMP and Future ROCE Mobility Solutions which all posted negative ROCE in 2019. 4% The NZX5 companies posted a median ROCE of 7.2%, being a 0.7% increase from 2018. 93 companies (81.6% of the NZX listed companies) 2% recorded positive ROCE (21 companies recorded negative ROCE), which is in line with 2018 results. 0% USX NZX Crown The Crown entities fell from an 8.8% ROCE in 2018 to 5.0% in 2019. This Market decline firmly places the median ROCE