Stronger than Justice Armed Group Impunity for Sexual Violence ANGELA MUVUMBA SELLSTRÖ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ill Tor Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................. 11 1. Introduction ......................................................................................... 15 Overview ............................................................................................ 17 Definitions .......................................................................................... 18 Positioning the study: previous research ............................................ 20 Liberal peacebuilding .................................................................... 20 Research on sexual violence .......................................................... 23 The research design ............................................................................ 25 Findings .............................................................................................. 30 Outline ................................................................................................ 32 2. The Setting: Liberal Peacebuilding and Impunity .............................. 34 Fundamentals: rule-based, non-arbitrary accountability .................... 35 Classical roots of justice and accountability .................................. 35 The International Bill of Rights ..................................................... 36 Rule of law and post-war accountability ....................................... 37 Ending impunity for sexual violence .................................................. 48 Defining impunity .......................................................................... 48 Sexual violence and impunity ........................................................ 51 Limiting amnesties ......................................................................... 54 Toward social science inquiry: issues for the study ........................... 56 3. The Propositions: Theorizing Impunity .............................................. 59 Key concepts ...................................................................................... 60 What is impunity? .......................................................................... 61 What is sexual violence in armed conflict? ................................... 64 Previous research: The building blocks of this study ......................... 65 Processes leading to armed group impunity for sexual violence ... 66 The theoretical framework ................................................................. 70 Explanatory Factor I: Flawed Prohibitions .................................... 70 Explanatory Factor II: Negligent Authorities ................................ 72 Explanatory Factor III: Amnesties ................................................. 73 Summarizing the theoretical framework ............................................ 74 4. The Road Ahead: Research Design and Methods ............................... 76 Research strategy ................................................................................ 76 Multi-methods strengths and weakness ......................................... 77 Case selection ................................................................................ 78 Method I: Quantitative Component .................................................... 84 Dependent variable ........................................................................ 85 The main independent variable: amnesties .................................... 87 Additional variables ....................................................................... 87 Sources and limitations .................................................................. 88 Description and analysis ................................................................ 91 Method II: Qualitative Study .............................................................. 92 The dependent variable .................................................................. 92 The independent variables ............................................................. 93 Empirical analyses ......................................................................... 95 Sources and limitations .................................................................. 98 About the focus groups .................................................................. 99 Ethics ................................................................................................ 103 5. Amnesty and Post-Settlement Sexual Violence ................................ 106 The data ............................................................................................ 107 Conflict and settlement background ............................................ 108 Patterns of post-settlement sexual violence ...................................... 116 Variation ...................................................................................... 116 Victims ......................................................................................... 117 Intensity ....................................................................................... 118 Location ....................................................................................... 119 Change over time ......................................................................... 120 Hypotheses ....................................................................................... 120 Results .............................................................................................. 124 Amnesty ....................................................................................... 124 Reputation .................................................................................... 126 The state ....................................................................................... 127 Limitations ....................................................................................... 129 Conclusions ...................................................................................... 131 6. The Conflict: Burundi’s War and its Postponed Peace ..................... 133 A history of violence ........................................................................ 133 Independence and a failed coup ................................................... 134 The rebels .................................................................................... 136 Postponed peace ............................................................................... 139 “Ruled by the street” .................................................................... 139 Embargoed ................................................................................... 140 The Arusha peace process ........................................................... 141 Final settlements ............................................................................... 143 CNDD-FDD’s negotiations ......................................................... 143 2005 elections .............................................................................. 144 The difficulties of securing peace with Palipehutu-FNL ............. 144 Return to conflict, renewed settlement and uneasy peace ........... 145 Settlement terms .......................................................................... 146 Sexual violence ................................................................................ 150 Sexual violence in the broader context ........................................ 150 The rebel groups and sexual violence .......................................... 152 7. The Rebels: CNDD-FDD and Impunity for Sexual Violence .......... 155 CNDD-FDD ..................................................................................... 155 Armed group impunity for sexual violence ...................................... 161 Explanatory factors .......................................................................... 162 Flawed prohibitions ..................................................................... 162 Negligent authorities .................................................................... 166 Amnesty ....................................................................................... 171 Within-case analysis ......................................................................... 175 A flawed prohibition .................................................................... 175 Authorities that didn’t punish ...................................................... 178 Amnesty does not apply to sexual violence ................................