Data Collection Survey on the Comprehensive Transport Plan between Dhaka and Chittagong Final Report November 2017 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY PADECO Co., Ltd. The exchange rates applied in this study are; USD1.0 = BDT80.0 (November, 2017) BDT: Bangladesh TAKA Data Collection Survey on the Comprehensive Transport Plan between Dhaka and Chittagong Final Report Executive Summary Background and Objectives Dhaka and Chittagong are the two largest cities in Bangladesh, accounting for 13% of the national population and 50% of gross domestic product (GDP). Strengthening the linkages between the two cities (250 km by road, 320 km by rail, and 300 km by waterway) by infrastructure development is essential for the national economic growth. The objectives of the Survey are as follows: To review ongoing/planned transport projects and urban development plans for strengthening major intercity (mainly between Dhaka and Chittagong) and regional cross-border transport networks in Bangladesh; To analyze transport demand that would result from future economic growth; and To examine project plans for unleashing the development potential along the Dhaka– Chittagong corridor by means of enhancing multimodal transport including rail, inland water, and road. Current Situation of Transport Development Transport and Related Infrastructure Road In 2009, the Roads and Highways Department (RHD) prepared the Bangladesh Road Master Plan to guide road sector investment over the 20 years. Nevertheless, RHD in collaboration with LGED is planning to update the road master plan due to various changes of the existing master plan scenario, including the recent government promotion of developing economic zones and the increasing importance of regional connectivity, road maintenance, and traffic safety. There are two overlapped expressway projects for the Dhaka–Chittagong corridor. One is the Dhaka–Chittagong Expressway proposed by RHD, and its F/S was done as of October 2017, while the other is the Dhaka–Chittagong Multimodal Transport Corridor proposed by Bangladesh Bridges Authority (BBA), and its EOI has been called as of October 2017. Another major projects under implementation are the Kanchpur, Meghna, and Gumti 2nd Bridge Construction and Exiting Bridge Rehabilitation Project (I) (II). Rail In 2013, the Bangladesh Railway (BR) prepared the Railway Master Plan with the support of the UK Department for International Development (DFID). The master plan proposes a total of 235 projects costing Taka 23 billion ($30 billion) over the 2010–2030 period. BR has been undertaking the activities under the ADB-funded SASEC Railway Connectivity Investment Program including the updating the existing master plan. The revised master plan looks at the next 30 years until 2045. There are two overlapped high-speed railway projects for the Dhaka– Chittagong corridor, one proposed by BR and the other by BBA Inland Water Developments There are various development plans and projects. Seventh Five Year Plan was prepared over the 2016-2020 period, covering the development of Inland Water Transport. Annual Development Program was also prepared over the 2016–2017 period and includes various development projects. There is also Inland Water Transport Master Plan studied in 2009. The World Bank conducted their study in 2016 and formulated the Bangladesh Regional Inland Water Transport Project 1. i Data Collection Survey on the Comprehensive Transport Plan between Dhaka and Chittagong Final Report Summary of Major Issues Road Lack of integrated planning and coordination among relevant agencies Insufficient road capacity and traffic congestion Lack of a transport hierarchy and connectivity Inadequate maintenance of damaged roads and bridges Low level of road safety, prevalent vehicle overloading, and inadequate traffic management Rail Insufficient rail track and structure Insufficient capacity of ICD and rolling stock. Operational inefficiency Inland Water Shortening of navigable route length Inadequate river ports and jetties Shortage of facilities and services for international trade Management of increasingly large vessels Inadequate container transport Lack of navigational aids Deficient access road to river ports Transport Survey By gathering information on actual transport services from administrators/operators of i) railway and (ii) inland waterway, the JICA Study Team clarified movements of passengers and goods between Dhaka and Chittagong. Source: JICA Study Team Figure 1: Transport Demand in 2015 between Dhaka and Chittagong Interview Survey on User Preferences The JICA Study Team conducted interview surveys about users’ preference on transport mode between Dhaka and Chittagong. Based on the result of the survey, two mode choice models were developed, one for passengers another for cargoes. Using the model, likely outcome of the introduction of a High Speed Rail (HSR) service to this corridor was also analyzed. The result indicates that the air transport users have a high time value and have high willingness to pay for the reduction of travel time. Passenger car users have the second highest time value, ii Data Collection Survey on the Comprehensive Transport Plan between Dhaka and Chittagong Final Report but passenger car users are highly preferable to passenger cars as their mode of transport. Therefore, the passenger demand for the HSR would fluctuate greatly depending on its travel time and fare. Future Transport Demand Transport Demand by Transport Mode in 2031 and 2041 Figure 2 shows the future transport demand by transport mode in Dhaka-Chittagong in 2031 and 2041. Different colored lines indicate each mode of transport. The National highway is shown in light green, toll-expressway in dark green, existing railway in red, high-speed railway in purple, and inland water transport in blue. The thickness of the line indicates the traffic volume per day. 1000 passengers/ day /日 1000 ton/day Passenger Traffic Flow in 2031 Cargo Traffic Flow in 2031 1000 passengers/ day /日 1000 ton/day Passenger Traffic Flow in 2041 Cargo Traffic Flow in 2041 Source: JICA Study Team Figure 2: Future Transport Demand in 2031 and 2041 by Transport Mode between Dhaka and Chittagong iii Data Collection Survey on the Comprehensive Transport Plan between Dhaka and Chittagong Final Report Figure 3 shows the comparisons between the planned supply of transport services and the forecasted transport demand by transport mode. For several sections of the road and the rail, the traffic demand is expected to be larger than the planned capacity in the long term, where it is expected that traffic congestion and the deterioration of transport services are expected to take place. Road in 2031 Present Passenger Rail in 2031 Cargo Rail in 2031 Road in 2041 Present Passenger Rail in 2041 Cargo Rail in 2041 Source: JICA Study Team Figure 3: Planned Supply of Service and Forecasted Demand Comparison Prioritization of Projects and Phased Development Program The projects at the planning and proposed stage were prioritized based on common criteria applied across individual projects in different transport sectors. The four indicators used for evaluation include (i) urgency, (ii) (potential) effect, (iii) implementability, and (iv) environmental and social considerations. The phased development plan for each mode was formulated the careful evaluation of the planned and proposed projects based on the above criteria as shown in Figure 4. iv Data Collection Survey on the Comprehensive Transport Plan between Dhaka and Chittagong Final Report Source: JICA Study Team Figure 4: Phased Multimodal Transport Development Plan on the Corridor v Data Collection Survey on the Comprehensive Transport Plan between Dhaka and Chittagong Final Report Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... i 1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 1-1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Objectives ................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.3 Survey Area .............................................................................................................. 1-2 1.4 Survey Tasks............................................................................................................. 1-2 2. Overview of Transport Development in Dhaka–Chittagong Region and Related Areas ...................................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Socio-Economic Conditions ..................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Population......................................................................................................... 2-1 2.1.2 Economy........................................................................................................... 2-3 2.1.3 International Trade ........................................................................................... 2-4 2.2 Transport and Related Infrastructure ........................................................................ 2-7 2.2.1 Roads ................................................................................................................ 2-7 2.2.2 Rail ..................................................................................................................