HOW CAN CONGRESS LEGISLATE FOR THE LONG RUN? A MULTIPLE STREAMS EXPLORATION by Thomas V. Fehsenfeld A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Government Baltimore, Maryland August, 2020 © 2020 Thomas Fehsenfeld All Rights Reserved Abstract This exploration of four case studies develops a theory of how the United States Congress can enact forward-looking legislation. The theory is set in the multiple streams framework developed by John Kingdon and modified with insights of subsequent scholars. A case study of the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection and Consumer Protection Act (P.L 111-203) was employed to test the usefulness of the framework. A case study of the Washington DC-based Bipartisan Policy Center’s lobbying strategy and insights from the literature of forward-looking policymaking were then used to develop ten propositions for a theory. The propositions were evaluated by examining the enactment of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (P.L. 91-604), and the failed 2009-2010 effort to address climate change with legislation for capping and trading greenhouse gas emission credits. Six of the ten propositions found good support. It is recommended that these six be developed into hypotheses and used in quantitative empirical studies of forward-looking policymaking. Keywords: multiple streams, policymaking, forward-looking policy, Congress, Dodd-Frank, Bipartisan Policy Center, Clean Air Act, Climate Change, Cap and Trade, Waxman-Markey, Global Warming. Advisor: Dr. Kathryn Wagner Hill ii Foreword This study began with the conviction that policymakers in democratic countries have a strong bias towards the present concerns of constituents to the detriment of future generations. As a person in his 70s, I wonder what type of legacy we are leaving for our children and grandchildren. My hope is that this work may spark ideas–and motivation–to improve the policy balance between the needs of the present and the needs of future generations. I would like to thank my life partner Carolyn for her emotional support and editing help during my years with Johns Hopkins. Jonathan Boston, Alan Jacobs, Kathryn Wagner Hill, Jacob Straus, and Douglas Harris provided excellent criticism and suggestions. This work is much better for their input. iii Table of Contents Abstract....................................................................................................................................... ii Foreword .................................................................................................................................... iii List of Tables .............................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ........................................................................................................................... vii Chapter 1 Forward-Looking Policy in Democracies ...................................................................... 1 Chapter 2 Multiple Streams in the Enactment of The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (P.L 111-203)....................................................................................... 5 Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework for Policy Change........................................... 6 Modifications Based On Subsequent Contributions .................................................... 10 Examining the Modified Framework ........................................................................... 14 Narrative of the Case ................................................................................................ 15 2009 1st Quarter ..................................................................................................... 17 2009 2nd Quarter .................................................................................................... 19 2009 3rd Quarter..................................................................................................... 20 2009 4th Quarter ..................................................................................................... 22 2010 1st Quarter ..................................................................................................... 25 2010 2nd Quarter .................................................................................................... 26 Discussion................................................................................................................. 29 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 36 Chapter 3 The Bipartisan Policy Center: Lobbying for the Future ............................................... 38 Literature Review ...................................................................................................... 39 Case Study: Strategies of the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) .................................... 43 iv Background ............................................................................................................... 45 Findings .................................................................................................................... 47 Discussion: Comparing BPC’s Strategies on a Current and Long-term Issues............ 51 Conclusion and Next Steps ....................................................................................... 54 Chapter 4 A Tale of Two Bills .................................................................................................... 56 The Work of Forward-Looking Problem Brokers......................................................... 57 The Work of Forward-Looking Policy Entrepreneurs .................................................. 59 The Work of Forward-Looking Political Entrepreneurs ............................................... 61 Propositions .............................................................................................................. 62 Findings: The Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 (91-604) ....................................... 63 Problem Brokers .................................................................................................... 64 Policy Entrepreneurs .............................................................................................. 66 Political Entrepreneurs ........................................................................................... 68 Findings: Cap and Trade Legislation 2009-2010 ........................................................ 71 Problem Brokers .................................................................................................... 73 Policy Entrepreneurs .............................................................................................. 74 Political Entrepreneurs ........................................................................................... 77 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 82 Chapter 5 One Investigation Ends, Others Begin ....................................................................... 86 Bibliography .............................................................................................................................. 98 Curriculum Vita........................................................................................................................ 103 v List of Tables Table 1 Comparison of Communication Efforts……………………………………..……48 Table 2 Infrastructure Communication and Lobbying Efforts - November 1, 2014 – October 31, 2019……………………………………………………………………………...48 Table 3 Energy Communication and Lobbying Efforts - November 1, 2014 – October 31, 2019…………………………………………………………………………………………….50 vi List of Figures Figure 1 Kingdon’s Multiple Streams Framework……………………………………………..9 Figure 2 Modified Multiple Streams Framework……………………………………………..13 Figure 3 Modified Multiple Streams Framework……………………………………………..35 vii Chapter 1 Forward-Looking Policy in Democracies In 2019, the Pew Research Center asked a representative panel of U.S. citizens what issues should be top, important, or low priorities, “in order for the federal government to improve the quality of life for future generations.” Strong majorities raised issues that Congress has not been able to address as top priorities: climate change, immigration reform, Social Security viability, healthcare access and affordability, technology-driven unemployment, the growth of government debt, energy security, and income inequality.1 Why does Congress find it difficult to face long-term and emerging problems? Jonathan Boston summarizes general reasons why democratic governments find it difficult to enact forward-looking policies including, “…incomplete information, disputed evidence, deep uncertainty, scarce resources, vigorous distributional conflicts, competing moral imperatives, impatient voters, powerful and well-organized interests, multiple veto points, and many unwelcome surprises.”2 Other scholars have added a number of ideas about the difficulty of enacting forward- looking policies. Creating policies to address emerging problems often requires careful thinking about the future, but Alan Jacobs argues that projecting the effects of a policy decades into the future involves the interaction of complex causal chains that are often beyond our intellectual capabilities.3 Some issues are not addressed because they are