Climate Change Risk Assessment Report: Portland Bight Protected Area Prepared by Climate Studies Group, Mona (Jamaica) University of the West Indies For: Caribbean Coastal Areas Management Foundation (C-CAM) April 2013 ABOUT THIS DOCUMENT This report will form one of five deliverables of a consultancy awarded by the Caribbean Coastal Areas Management Foundation (C-CAM) to the Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM). It is an assessment of the physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities of the Portland Bight Protected Area (PBPA) due to climate threats. The analysis was carried out through reviews of existing relevant literature, limited analysis of climate variables for the region and surveys conducted among some residents of the PBPA. The original Terms of Reference is provided in the appendices. Within the context of the Terms of Reference, the objectives of this report are interpreted to be: (a) To describe what is known about the climatic conditions of the Portland Bight Protected Area. (b) To describe the climatic hazards to which the PBPA is exposed and the impact of climate change. (c) To examine the risk posed by the climatic hazards to the biodiversity of the PBPA. (d) To do the above, where possible for the entire PBPA, but with an emphasis on the two dry forest regions of Hellshire Hills and Portland Ridge. (e) To provide any additional climatic data as appropriate to support vulnerability analyses of the PBPA and the creation of a robust long term and sustainable adaptation management plan for the PBPA. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This project was implemented by the C-CAMF with funding from the Critical Ecosystems Partnership Fund. The CSGM acknowledges the lead of Dale Rankine and the oversight of Dr. Michael Taylor on this deliverable. Our sincerest gratitude is also extended to all the other individuals who participated in the compilation of this report. They include researchers, fieldworkers and students from the University of the West Indies, Mona. These include: Pietra Brown Roxann Brown Javian Malcolm Kimberly Stephenson Tannecia Stephenson Rochelle Walters We express thanks to Richard Sutherland who supervised the conduct of the field survey and analysed the results obtained. Thanks also to those who conducted the surveys and to the local guides for their invaluable help especially as it relates to accompanying our fieldworkers to the sites which were surveyed. We extend gratitude to Andri Williams for assisting with the training of the interviewers. Above-all, we would like to thank all the participants of the survey including the members of the focus groups for answering our many questions with patience and courtesy. Without the above mentioned individuals and agencies, this project would never have moved beyond its conceptual stage. ii Contents ABOUT THIS DOCUMENT .......................................................................................................................... i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ............................................................................................................................ ii LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... vi LIST OF TABLES ...................................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ACRONYMS ...............................................................................................................................viii 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Overview of the PBPA .............................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 Extent ............................................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Settlements and Infrastructure ......................................................................................... 2 1.1.3 Ownership and Management ........................................................................................... 3 1.2 Ecological and Biological Importance ........................................................................................ 4 1.2.1 Ecosystems of the PBPA.................................................................................................... 4 1.2.2 The Hellshire Hills and Portland Ridge ............................................................................... 8 1.2.3 Economic Value of the PBPA ............................................................................................. 9 2. PHYSICAL VULNERABILITY .............................................................................................................. 11 2.1 Present climate of the PBPA ................................................................................................... 11 2.1.1 Rainfall ........................................................................................................................... 11 2.1.2 Temperature .................................................................................................................. 14 2.1.3 Wind Speed and Humidity .............................................................................................. 16 2.1.4 Hurricanes ...................................................................................................................... 17 2.2 Climate Trends and Future Projections ................................................................................... 17 2.2.1 Temperature .................................................................................................................. 17 2.2.2 Rainfall ........................................................................................................................... 20 2.2.3 Hurricanes ...................................................................................................................... 23 2.2.4 Sea Levels ....................................................................................................................... 25 2.2.5 Other Variables .............................................................................................................. 26 2.2.6 Summary of Projected Changes ...................................................................................... 26 iii 2.3 Climate Hazards ..................................................................................................................... 27 2.3.1 Floods ............................................................................................................................ 27 2.3.2 Storm Surge.................................................................................................................... 30 2.3.3 Location ......................................................................................................................... 32 2.3.4 Maximum Surge Height (m) ............................................................................................ 32 2.3.5 Run-Up Distance (m) ...................................................................................................... 32 2.3.6 Forest Fires ..................................................................................................................... 32 2.3.7 Sea Level Rise (Inundation) ............................................................................................. 34 2.3.8 Summary of Impact of climate change on Climate Hazards ............................................. 35 3. CLIMATE RISKS ............................................................................................................................... 36 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 36 3.2 Mangrove Wetlands ............................................................................................................... 36 3.2.1 Climate Risks .................................................................................................................. 36 3.3 Dry Forests ............................................................................................................................. 39 3.3.1 Climate Risks .................................................................................................................. 39 3.4 Cays and Sandy Beaches ......................................................................................................... 43 3.4.1 Climate Risks ......................................................................................................................... 43 3.5 Coral Reefs ............................................................................................................................. 44 3.5.1 Climate Risks .................................................................................................................. 44 3.6 Seagrass ................................................................................................................................. 46 3.6.1 Climate Risks .................................................................................................................. 46 3.7 Freshwater Ecosystems .......................................................................................................... 48 3.7.1 Climate Risks .................................................................................................................