CHARLOTTE COUNTY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN CHARLOTTE COUNTY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN 2016 Danielle St. Louis & Donald Killorn PUBLISHED BY: Eastern Charlotte Waterways Inc. 881 Main Street Blacks Harbour, NB E5H 1E5 Tel: (506) 456-6001 Email: [email protected] YOUR ENVIRONMENTAL TRUST FUND AT WORK - VOTRE FONDS EN FIDUCIE POUR L’ENVIRONNEMENT AU TRAVAIL This project has been made possible by the generous inancial support of the New Brunswick Environmental Trust Fund 3 CHARLOTTE COUNTY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY II 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 3 1.2 WHAT ARE MUNICIPALITIES ADAPTING TO? 4 1.3 ADAPTATION PLANNING PROCESS 10 2.0 ST. STEPHEN 14 2.1 IMPACTS 15 2.2 ACTIONS 17 2.3 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 20 3.0 SAINT ANDREWS 26 3.1 IMPACTS 27 3.2 ACTIONS 28 3.3 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 32 4.0 ST. GEORGE 36 4.1 IMPACTS 36 4.2 ACTIONS 38 4.3 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 42 5.0 BLACKS HARBOUR 46 5.1 IMPACTS 46 5.2 ACTIONS 47 5.3 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 51 6.0 GRAND MANAN 56 6.1 IMPACTS 56 6.2 ACTIONS 57 6.3 IMPLEMENTATION SCHEDULE 60 APPENDIX A - SEA-LEVEL RISE & WET AREAS MAPPING 64 4 CHARLOTTE COUNTY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN GLOSSARY ADAPTATION: millions of years. The classical period for averaging In human systems, adaptation is the process of these variables is 30 years, as defined by the adjustment to actual or expected climate and World Meteorological Organization. The relevant its effects, in order to moderate harm or exploit quantities are most often surface variables such as beneficial opportunities. temperature, precipitation, and wind. VULNERABILITY: CLIMATE CHANGE RISK: The degree to which a system (e.g., community, Climate change risk is a combined function of individual, and ecosystem) is susceptible to, or the probability of a hazard (an event with the unable to cope with a particular climate change potential to cause harm, e.g. floods) occurring impact. It is a function of the character, magnitude and the magnitude and severity of its potential and rate of climate variation to which a system is consequences (e.g. injury, property damage, loss of exposed; its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity. habitat, etc.). EXPOSURE AND SENSITIVITY: CONTINGENCY PLANNING: Exposure and sensitivity are almost inseparable Additional measures undertaken by emergency properties of a system (or a community). For management officials in determining an effective example, a coastal community like St. Stephen is response to a particular type of hazard incident, exposed to sea-level rise. Sensitivity is the degree as opposed to using a non-specific set of plans / to which the system is affected. procedures. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY: RISK ASSESSMENT: The ability of systems, institutions, humans, and The process to prioritize climate change risks other organisms to adjust to potential damage, focusing on the potential consequences of an to take advantage of opportunities, or to respond impact. to consequences. Adaptive capacity is context specific and varies from community to community DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT: and among social groups and individuals, and over Improving the understanding of disaster risk; time. fostering disaster risk reduction and transfer; and promoting continuous improvement in disaster VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT: preparedness, response and recovery practices, The process to prioritize climate change risks with the explicit purpose of increasing human focusing on where we are the most susceptible. security, well-being, quality of life, resilience, and Vulnerability is a key determinant of potential sustainable development. impacts and disasters. RESILIENCE: CLIMATE: Resilience is the ability of a system and Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as its component parts to anticipate, absorb, the average weather, or more rigorously, as the accommodate, or recover from the effects of a statistical description in terms of the mean and hazardous event in a timely and efficient manner, variability of relevant quantities over a period including ensuring the preservation, restoration, or of time ranging from months to thousands or improvement of its essential basic structures and functions. 5I CHARLOTTE COUNTY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In Charlotte County, the impacts of climate change this document, a suite of adaptation actions has been have already begun to appear. Temperatures are rising, identified to minimize the impacts of climate change high intensity precipitation events are becoming more and build more resilient communities in Charlotte common, sea levels are rising, the ocean is warming County. The actions range from low cost and easy and inland and coastal areas are experiencing to implement, to larger, more complex projects. The greater rates of erosion and more frequent flooding. actions were chosen through recommendations Recognizing the need and opportunity to adapt to a made by the working groups in the vulnerability changing climate, the St. Croix Estuary Project and assessment, risk assessment, and in consultation Eastern Charlotte Waterways collaborated in 2013- with municipal and provincial officials. The actions fall 2014 to begin the process of creating a climate change under five categories: modifying policies, procedures, adaptation action plan for five communities in Charlotte standards; emergency planning; protecting, enhancing County – St. Stephen, Saint Andrews, St. George, or restoring green space; improving community Blacks Harbour and Grand Manan. awareness and education; and research, monitoring and priority setting. Following the ICLEI Canada five-milestone framework for adaptation planning, a vulnerability assessment Actions are listed with timing, and accountability was conducted using extreme total sea-level information in a comprehensive implementation flooding scenario maps and depth to water maps to schedule. Some actions signal necessary collaboration determine the sensitivity and adaptive capacity of with the regional and provincial governments, as it is each community, and then a risk assessment to gauge recognized that local adaptation is reliant on close the consequence and likelihood of impacts, which ties and joint actions with other levels of government, provided a numerical score to assist with prioritization. residents, the private sector, and community groups. The next step was the creation of an action plan. In II6 CHARLOTTE COUNTY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN 1.0 INTRODUCTION he Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) define climate change as “a change in the state of the Tclimate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties that persist for an extended period of time, typically decades or longer” (2014). In other words, climate change refers to a long term shift in weather patterns. It is measured by changes in a variety of climate indicators such as temperature and rainfall. limate change is clearly supported by both observed trends and peer reviewed scientific research. Human activity Chas dramatically increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere, and the evidence for human-induced climate change is now undeniable. Multiple studies published in peer-reviewed scientific journals show that 97 percent or more of actively publishing climate scientists agree: climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities (Cook et al., 2013; Anderegg, 2010). Reflecting the body of climate science research, the IPCC state that “it is extremely likely that more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to 2010 was caused by the anthropogenic increase in greenhouse gas concentrations and other anthropogenic forcings together” (2014). WHAT IS MITIGATION? Understandably, much attention has been focused to date on climate change mitigation. Climate change mitigation refers to the ongoing attempts to prevent significant climate change through the reductions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. Mitigation is an extremely important aspect of dealing with climate change. Between 2005 and 2010, New Brunswick’s GHG emissions declined by 17 per cent, while the province’s economy grew by 19 per cent. The New Brunswick Climate Change Action Plan 2014–2020 builds on this success and establishes 2020 and 2050 provincial GHG emissions reduction targets of 10 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 and 75 to 85 per cent below 2001 levels by 2050 (Province of New Brunswick, 2014). Municipalities can play a role in helping to reach these targets. The starting point for most municipalities involves an energy use and greenhouse gas emissions inventory. The inventory allows municipalities to determine where they consume energy and the amount of GHG they emit. This baseline information is critical for implementing policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and develop energy conservation programs. However, despite genuine efforts to mitigate climate change, leading scientists tell us that a changing climate is inevitable. We still face climate change impacts linked to past and ongoing GHG emissions that will be present in the atmosphere for many years to come and we can expect increasing temperatures, more frequent storms and sea level rise. Preparing for these changes – adapting to climate change – is a warranted and complementary strategy to mitigation. 1 CHARLOTTE COUNTY CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ACTION PLAN WHAT IS ADAPTATION?