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This electronic representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-commercial use only. Unauthorized posting of RAND electronic documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND electronic documents are protected under copyright law. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of our research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please see RAND Permissions. This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series. RAND monographs present major research findings that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono- graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity. United States and Mexico Ties That Bind, Issues That Divide Emma Aguila, Alisher R. Akhmedjonov, Ricardo Basurto-Davila, Krishna B. Kumar, Sarah Kups, Howard J. Shatz INVESTMENT IN PEOPLE AND IDEAS This monograph results from the RAND Corporation’s Investment in People and Ideas program. Support for this program is provided, in part, by the generosity of RAND’s donors and by the fees earned on client-funded research. The authors of this monograph are listed in alphabetical order. Library of Congress Control Number: 2012937838 ISBN: 978-0-8330-5106-6 The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. R® is a registered trademark. © Copyright 2012 RAND Corporation Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND documents to a non-RAND website is prohibited. RAND documents are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND permissions page (http://www.rand.org/publications/ permissions.html). Published 2012 by the RAND Corporation 1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138 1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050 4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665 RAND URL: http://www.rand.org To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact Distribution Services: Telephone: (310) 451-7002; Fax: (310) 451-6915; Email: [email protected] Summary The purpose of this study was to assess ways to strengthen the alliance between the United States and Mexico. In this monograph, we pro- vide objective analysis of issues relevant to this unique international relationship. It is our belief that both Mexican and U.S. policymakers would benefit from a detailed discussion of immigration and the social and economic development of Mexico, interrelated issues connecting both countries. Understanding the concerns that drive the debate on immigration in the United States might better enable Mexican poli- cymakers to engage in a constructive dialogue that helps support and reform U.S. immigration policy. In addition, U.S. policymakers might benefit from understanding the social and economic achievements of, as well as challenges faced by, Mexico. Such factors influence many Mexicans’ decisions to emigrate across the border every year. Although we recognize that there are other issues of mutual interest to both countries, immigration to the United States and the social and eco- nomic backdrop of Mexico are topics complex enough to illustrate the progress made by and the challenges that remain for both countries.1 The United States and Mexico have always shared a complicated bilateral relationship, which is clearly evidenced by the heavy migra- tion flows and trade agreements of the past 20 years. A major issue of contention between both countries is that of immigration from Mexico to the United States. The September 11 attacks promulgated a tighten- ing of immigration restrictions, which led to the Secure Fence Act of 1 The issue of security in Mexico is dealt with in a companion piece to this monograph (Schaefer, Bahney, and Riley, 2009). xv xvi United States and Mexico: Ties That Bind, Issues That Divide 2006 (Pub. L. 109-367), supporting the construction of a 700-mile- long fence along the Mexico–United States border. On the other hand, with the elimination of tariffs and other economic trade barriers in the mid-1990s, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) has served as a multilateral platform for cooperation between both countries, as well as Canada. In March 2011, U.S. President Barack Obama met with Mexican President Felipe Calderón to discuss work- ing together on issues ranging from drug-related violence, immigration reform, and cross-border trucking to climate change and international politics. Objectives and Approach of the Monograph The project had three objectives. First, we described the conditions pre- cipitating the large immigration flow of Mexican citizens to the United States, especially during the 1990s and early part of this century. Second, we examined specific social reforms and challenges faced by Mexican citizens in the period before the U.S. recession that started in 2007 and the global crisis that commenced in 2008. Although detailed statistical and economic analyses of the recession continue to be pro- duced, our aim is to analyze secular trends over the past few decades that relate to structural issues. Toward this end, we do make note of data available since 2007 that highlight noteworthy patterns that hold true across previous economic crises to understand their impact on Mexico’s socioeconomic development. Finally, we studied the prevail- ing opinions that U.S. citizens have of Mexican immigration. Our multidisciplinary approach entailed the following: • reviewing and documenting contemporary and historical policy contexts of Mexican immigration to the United States • collecting and analyzing information on the economic condi- tions, social structures, and government programs in Mexico • interviewing U.S. and Mexican policymakers about factors influ- encing Mexican migration and U.S.-Mexican relations Summary xvii • describing U.S.-Mexican policy up to 2011, and assessing popular public opinion on U.S.-Mexican relations and migration. To the best of our knowledge, the information presented is the most recent available as of March 2011, by which date the data for this monograph were gathered, but we must caution that the subject matter concerns a fast-moving policy area, and there are constant changes. The manuscript is designed as a binational reference for both U.S. and Mexican policymakers. We define binational as a way of examining an issue while taking into account the concerns and interests of both Mexico and the United States. More clearly, the monograph presents Mexican immigration to the United States and the economic and social development of Mexico as interrelated issues. Differences in economic growth, wages, and the employment situation between the two coun- tries are critical determinants of immigration. Migration of labor out of Mexico, in turn, affects Mexico’s economic and social development. Policymakers of both countries should be cognizant of the connections between immigration and economic and social development in order to design policies that address these complex issues. Moreover, because Mexico is an important economic partner of the United States, a better comprehension of the barriers and challenges to Mexico’s economic growth can provide U.S. decisionmakers with insights into determin- ing which future policies might be beneficial to both countries. The Mexican Migration Situation During the 20th and 21st centuries, the United States and Mexico have simultaneously promoted and discouraged migration from Mexico to the United States through their migration policies. Although the United States has mostly attempted to limit the volume of Mexican immigration, it actively promoted the immigration of Mexican work- ers in response to labor shortages during World Wars I and II. Simi- larly, Mexico has, at different times, encouraged labor migration to the United States, tried to control the number of emigrants, or instead xviii United States and Mexico: Ties That Bind, Issues That Divide simply taken a laissez-faire approach to the flow of illegal migrants through its northern border. Our review of the research literature, immigration policy docu- ments, and statistical and economic data yielded the composite pic- ture, described next, of the state of Mexican immigration to the United States. The Number