Munich Personal RePEc Archive EDB Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2013 Vinokurov, Evgeny EDB Centre for Integration Studies 2013 Online at https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/61618/ MPRA Paper No. 61618, posted 04 Feb 2015 05:14 UTC Eurasian intEgration YEarBook annual publication of the Eurasian Development Bank Eurasian Integration Yearbook 3 annual publication of the Eurasian Development Bank УДК 339.9 ББК 65.428 Е 91 Eurasian Integration Yearbook 2013. – Almaty, 2013. – p. 394 ISBN 978-601-7151-39-3 Annual publication of the Eurasian Development Bank Edited by Evgeny Vinokurov the Eurasian Development Bank is an international financial institution established to promote economic growth and integration processes in Eurasia. the Bank was founded by the intergovernmental agreement signed in January 2006 by the russian Federation and the republic of kazakhstan. tajikistan, Belarus, armenia and kyrgyzstan joined the Bank in 2009-2011. Electric power, transportation infrastructure and high-tech and innovative industries are key areas for Bank’s financial activity. in line with its Сharter, the Bank views economic integration in the post-soviet space and greater Eurasia as the top-priority of its research work. ISBN 978-601-7151-39-3 УДК 339.9 ББК 65.428 © Eurasian Development Bank, 2013 Eurasian Development Bank Address: 220, Dostyk ave., almaty, 050051, republic of kazakhstan, telephone: +7 (727) 244 40 44, Fax: +7 (727) 244 65 70, 291 42 63 E-mail: [email protected] http://www.eabr.org Coordinator: gulnaz imamniyazova, EDB Design, layout, and printing: ruan Publishing Company the EDB’s special acknowledgements go to tatyana ossennikova, Botakoz kassimova, stas Myong, Ekaterina kopylova, Hannah Dyson, Jonathan Elliot and stephany Droop for translating and editing materials for the Yearbook in English. no part of this publication may be reprinted or reproduced or utilised in any form, including reprinting and recording of any kind, without due reference to this publication. the views expressed in this publication are those of author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Eurasian Development Bank. 3 Eurasian Integration Yearbook annual publication of the Eurasian Development Bank Edited by Evgeny Vinokurov, EDB Advisory Council: Sailau Baizakov, Insitute for Economic Research, Astana Michael Emerson, Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels Valery Geets, Institute for Economic Forecasting, Kyiv Ruslan Grinberg, Insitute of Economy RAS, Moscow Ivan Korolev, Institute for World Economy and International Relations RAS, Moscow Luk Van Langenhove, United Nations University, Bruges Johannes Linn, Brookings Institute, Washington Liu Huaqin, Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, Beijing Katlijn Malfliet, Catholic University of Leuven Ivan Samson, University of Grenoble II Leonid Vardomskiy, Institute of Economy RAS, Moscow Vladimir Yasinskiy, EDB, Almaty ContEnts Contents List of Figures and Tables 6 List of Abbreviations 12 GREEtINGS igor Finogenov, Chairman of the EDB 14 EuRASIAN ECoNoMIC uNIoN-2015: DEEpENING AND WIDENING REGIoNAL INtEGRAtIoN 1. pragmatic Integration 15 Evgeny Vinokurov 2. Eurasian partnership: potential Instruments for External Relations of the Eurasian Economic union 28 alexander knobel, Vladimir Pereboyev 3. tajikistan and the Customs union: Challenges and opportunities 50 Michael Demidenko 4. Labour Migration and Human Capital in Kyrgyzstan and tajikistan: Impact of Accession to the SES 68 Evgeny Vinokurov, Vladimir Pereboyev 5. Integrated Foreign Exchange Market in CIS: From theory into practice 89 alexei kuprin, Victoria Mishina 6. Analysis of trade and production Linkages between Border Regions of Russia and Kazakhstan: Impact of Customs union and Single Economic Space 102 Leonid Limonov, nina oding, Denis kadochnikov, Lev savulkin and andrei anisimov MoNItoRING INtEGRAtIoN pRoCESSES 7. Integration Sentiment in post-Soviet Countries: Status and Dynamics 127 igor Zadorin, Victor Moisov 4 EDB Eurasian integration Yearbook 2013 ContEnts 8. Shifts in Sector Structure of Mutual Direct Investments of the CIS Countries 148 alexey kuznetsov 9. Belarusian Commodity Distribution Companies in CIS Countries 158 Yuriy kvashnin ADVANCING FuNCtIoNAL ECoNoMIC CoopERAtIoN 10. Energy Security and Water Resources Management in transboundary River Basins in Central Asia 168 Vladimir Yasinskiy, alexander Mironenkov, tulegen sarsembekov 11. Grain Sector: potential of Eurasian Integration and objectives of Economic policy 181 andrei anisimov, arkadyi Zlochevskiy, rudolf Bulavin, Evgeny gan, irina kobuta, alexander korbut 12. Developing Commodity Exchange trading in the Single Economic Space 196 natalia Maximchook 13. Mechanical Engineering in the Single Economic Space of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus 233 ardak tashenov 2012: DAtA AND REVIEWS 14. CIS Region Countries: A Slowdown in 2012 and the prospects for Moderate Acceleration in the Medium term 253 kairat Beisenov, Elvira kurmanalieva 15. Chronicle of Eurasian Regional Integration 2012 271 natalia Maqsimchook 16. Multilateral Development Banks: overview of Activities in 2012 329 Yulia sterligova information for authors 377 index 379 Eurasian Development Bank 5 List oF FigurEs anD taBLEs List of Figures and tables FIGuRES Figure 2.1. trade balance deficit: armenia, Moldova and tajikistan 36 Figure 2.2. global Competitiveness index 37 Figure 2.3. Ease of Doing Business: Fsu countries’ rankings on trading across borders 38 Figure 2.4. Ease of Doing Business: Fsu countries’ rankings on investor protection 39 Figure 3.1. Dynamics of inflation, real gDP growth, capital investment and domestic savings of the republic of tajikistan 51 Figure 3.2. Ministry of Finance of the republic of tajikistan 52 Figure 3.3. gDP structure by sectors 54 Figure 3.4. industrial output structure in 2010 55 Figure 3.5. additional gDP growth potential from the accession of tajikistan to the Cu-sEs 60 Figure 3.6. gDP growth in percentage vs. growth in factor productivity 64 Figure 4.1. External migration of kyrgyzstan’s population in 2011 70 Figure 4.2. reasons for labour migration 72 Figure 4.3. sources of assistance and support 73 Figure 4.4. Labour migration and the broader economy: multiple channels of impact 74 Figure 4.5. net inflow of money transfers into kyrgyzstan 75 Figure 4.6. average monthly income of kyrgyz labour migrants in russia and kazakhstan 75 Figure 4.7. occupations of labour migrants 76 Figure 4.8. Education level 77 Figure 4.9. Plans with respect to labour migration 78 Figure 4.10. Main problems for labour migrants 80 Figure 4.11. the distribution of tajik workers by occupation 83 Figure 5.1. Moscow Exchange’s FX market average daily trading volume 93 Figure 5.2. geographical breakdown of russian interbank (a) usD/ruB spot transactions and (b) Eur/usD swap transactions, by non-resident counterparty’s location 94 6 EDB Eurasian integration Yearbook 2013 List oF FigurEs anD taBLEs Figure 5.3. Client transactions and the number of clients registered in the Moscow Exchange’s currency market 97 Figure 5.4. Foreign exchange market turnover by categories of participants/clients 2012 97 Figure 5.5. average daily trade in CnY/ruB at the Moscow Exchange 98 Figure 6.1. Bilateral trade between russia and kazakhstan 104 Figure 6.2. the significance of bilateral trade for russia and kazakhstan 105 Figure 6.3. the volumes of foreign trade of the russian and kazakh border areas, as a percentage of the overall foreign trade of russia and kazakhstan 106 Figure 6.4. Foreign trade, in percent of gDP/grP of russia, kazakhstan and their border areas 107 Figure 6.5. the commodity structure of exports by region in 2010 108 Figure 6.6. the commodity structure of imports, by region in 2010 109 Figure 6.7. the commodity structure of exports and imports of the border areas of russia and kazakhstan in 2010 110 Figure 6.8. the number of migrants from kazakhstan to russia and from russia to kazakhstan 111 Figure 6.9. the regional structure of the grP of the border regions of russia and kazakhstan 112 Figure 6.10. two-way investment between russia and kazakhstan 113 Figure 6.11. Fixed capital investment by entities involving foreign capital 114 Figure 6.12. the December-over-December consumer price index 115 Figure 6.13. Electricity prices 116 Figure 6.14. Changes in average annual prices of 95-octane gasoline 116 Figure 6.15. Per capita money income 117 Figure 7.1. Countries grouped by priority geopolitical vector 132 Figure 7.2. Dependence of migration preferences on age (ukraine’s data) 133 Figure 7.3. to which of the listed countries would you go to study (or send your children to study)? 134 Figure 7.4. With which countries should our state or companies cooperate in the scientific and technical fields, e.g. conduct joint studies and exchange findings, technology and scientific ideas? 135 Eurasian Development Bank 7 List oF FigurEs anD taBLEs Figure 7.5. From which countries should our country receive capital and investment, and invite companies and business people to set up businesses in our country? 136 Figure 7.6. Which of the listed countries, in your opinion, are friendly to our country (i.e. could be expected to support us in times of need)? (three directions) 137 Figure 7.7. Which of the listed countries, in your opinion, are friendly to our country (i.e. could be expected to support us in times of need)? 138 Figure 7.8. isolationist sentiment in the countries covered by the projects (average sums of the “no such country exists” and “Difficult to say” boxes for questions asked in each country) 139 Figure 7.9. Belarus, kazakhstan and russia formed the Customs union, which eliminated customs duties between these three countries, and the single Economic space (effectively a common market). What is your assessment of this decision? 141 Figure 7.10. Belarus, kazakhstan and russia formed the Customs union, which eliminated customs duties between these three countries, and the single Economic space (effectively a common market). Do you think our country should join them? 141 Figure 7.11. attitude towards the Cu and the sEs and answers to the question about preferred goods 142 Figure 7.12.