European Commission ■■■■ Community research Conference proceedings Sea level change and coastal processes Implications for Europe Research results and recommendations mm ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT EUR 19337 Interested in European research? RTD info is our quarterly magazine keeping you in touch with main developments (results, programmes, events etc.). It is available in English, French and German. A free sample copy or free subscription can be obtained from: Directorate-General for Research Communication Unit European Commission Rue de la Loi/Wetstraat 200 B-1049 Brussels Fax (32-2) 29-58220 E-mail: [email protected] Internet: http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/rtdinfo.html EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Research Unit D. 1.1 — Environment and sustainable development Contact: Dr lb Troen Address: European Commission, rue de la Loi/Wetstraat 200 (SDME 7/40), B-1049 Brussels — Fax (32-2) 29-63024; E-mail: [email protected] European Commission Sea level change and coastal processes Implications for Europe Edited by David Smith Coventry University United Kingdom Sarah B. Raper University of East Anglia United Kingdom Susanna Zerbini Università degli Studi di Bologna Italy Augustin Sánchez-Arcilla Universität Politècnica de Catalunya Spain Directorate-General for Research 2000 EUR 19337 LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. A great deal of additional information on the European Union is available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa server (http://europa.eu.int). Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2000 ISBN 92-828-9023-6 © European Communities, 2000 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Printed in Belgium PRINTED ON WHITE CHLORINE-FREE PAPER Sea Level Change and Coastal Processes: Implications for Rumpe :ÍVSÜAÜ Frontispiece l^is kenlyre head), looking out at the North Harris i lilis, ¡sie of Hams, Outer Hebrides, western Scot/and, United Kingdom, (Photographer: Jason Jordan). Ill Sea Level Change and Coastal Pmœsses: Implications for Europe CONTENTS List of contributors VI Foreword IX Preface DA VID E. SMITH XI Recommendations ROBERT J.N. DEVOY, THOMAS A. DE GROOT, SASKIA JELGERSMA, 1-8 IGINIOMARSON, ROBERT/. NICHOLLS, ROLAND PASKOFF & HANS PETER PLAG. Chapter one 9-80 GLOBAL CHANGES IN THE VOLUME AND MASS OF THE OCEAN Chapter editor SARAH RAPER. Chapter two 81-133 REGIONAL AND LOCAL SEA LEVEL VARIATIONS Chapter editor SUSANNA ZERBINI. Chapter three 134-172 EXTREME COASTAL FLOODING Chapter editor DA VID E. SMITH. Chapter four 173-213 CLIMATE CHANGE IMPLICATIONS FOR COASTAL PROCESSES Chapter authors AGUSTÍN SÁNCHEZ ARCILLA, PIET HOEKSTRA, ¡OSEA. JIMÉNEZ, EIGIL KAAS & ANDRÉS MALDONADO. Chapter five 214-242 IMPLICATIONS FOR COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT Chapter authors THOMAS A. M. DE GROOT AND JULIAN D. ORFORD. Index of Place Names 243-244 Subject Index 245-247 V Sea Levd Change and Goastal Processes: Implications for Europe LIST OF CONTRIBUTORS Dr. Cesar Andrade Centro de Geologia, Universidade de Lisboa, Bloco C2, 5o Piso­Campo Grande, 1700 Lisboa, Portugal. Prof. Trevor F. Baker Centre for Coastal and Marine Science, Proudman Océanographie Laboratory, Bidston Observatory, Birkenhead, Merseyside, L43 7RA, United Kingdom. Dr. Anny Cazenave Groupe de Recherche de Geodesie Spatiale, 18 Av. E. Belin, 31401 Toulouse, Cedex 4, France. Dr. Michele Capobranco TECNOMARE s.p.a., 3584 San Marco, 30124 Venezia, Italy. Dr. A.M. Cocard Dip. Mineralogia, Univ. Bologna, Italy Prof. Alastair G. Dawson Centre for Quaternary Science, School of the Natural and Environmental Scienece, Coventry University, Priory Street, Coventry, CV1 5FB, United Kingdom. Dr. Thomas A. De Groot Netherlands Institute of Applied Geoscience TNO­National Geological Survey, Geo­Marine and Coast Department, Coastal Research Section, PO Box 80015, 3508 TA Utrecht, The Netherlands. Dr. Robert J. N. Devoy Coastal Resources Centre, Department of Geography, University College Cork, College Road, Cork, Ireland. Dr. Collum R. Firth Department of Geography and Earth Sciences, Brunei University, Uxbridge, Middlesex. UB8 3PH, United Kingdom. Dr. Conceçáo Freitas Centro de Geologia, Universidade de Lisboa, Bloco C2, 5o Piso­Campo Grande, 1700 Lisboa, Portugal. Dr. Massimo Frezzotti Dip. Ambiente, ENEA, AMB/CLIM, Casaccia C Ρ 2400, 00100 Roma, Italy. Dr. Piet Hoekstra Department of Physical Geography, Institute for Marine and Atmosphere Research, University of Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. Dr. Saskia Jelgersma Applied Geoscience Consultant, Office for International Co­operation, Geological Survey of the Netherlands, P.O. Box 157, Elsenlaan 6, 1865 BM Bergan aan Zee, The Netherlands. Dr. José A. Jiménez Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima (LIM/UPQ, Universität Politècnica de Catalunya, c/ Jordi Girona, 1­3 , Campus Nord ­ UPC ­ Mod, DI 08034, Barcelona, Spain. Prof. Hans-Gert Kahle Dpt. Geodesy, Geodesy and Photogrammetry, ΕΤΗ Honggerbert, HPV G52, CH­8093, Zurich, Switzerland. Dr. Eigil Kass Research Department, Danish Meteorological Institute, Lyngbyvej 100, DK­2100, Copenhagen, Denmark. Dr. Antony J. Long Department of Geography, Universtity of Durham, South Road, Durham, DH1 3LE, United Kingdom. Dr. Ignacio Lozano Qima Marítimo, Puertos del Estado, Antonio Lopaz 81, 28026, Madrid, Spain. VI Sea Levd Change and Coastal Processes: Implications for Europe Prof. Andrés Maldonado CSIC, Instituto Andaluz de Gencias de la Tierra, Universidad de Granada, Facultad de Ciencias, Campus Fuentenueva, s/n 18002 Granada, Spain. Prof. Iginio Marson D.I.NMA., University of Trieste, Via Valerio, 10 34127, Trieste, Italy. Dr. Robert J. Nicholls Flood Hazard Research Centre, School of Geography and Environmental Management, Middlesex University, Queensway, Enfield, EN3 4SF, United Kingdom. Prof. Julian D.Orford School of Geosciences, Queen's University, County Antrim, Belfast, BT6 INN, United Kingdom. Prof. Roland Paskoff Univerisité Lumière de LyonlO, Square Saint-Florentin, 78150 Le Chesnay, France. Dr. Hans Peter Plag Institute of Geophysics, University of Kiel, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Olshausenstr., 40-D-24118, Kiel, Germany. Dr. Sarah C.B. Raper Climate Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, NR4 7TJ, United Kingdom. Dr. C. Romagnoli Dip. Mineralogia, Univ. Bologna, Italy. Dr. Niels Reeh Danish Centre for Remote Sensing, Technical University of Denmark, B 348, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark. Prof. Agustín Sánchez-Arcilla Laboratori d'Enginyeria Marítima (LIM/UPC), Universität Politècnica de Catalunya, c/ Jordi Girona, 1-3, Campus Nord - UPC - Mod. Dl 08034, Barcelona, Spain. Dr. Shaozhong Shi Environmental Science, Inverness College, 3 Longman Road, Inverness, IVI 15A, United Kingdom. Prof. David E. Smith Centre for Quaternary Science, School of the Natural and Environmental Sciences, Coventry University, Priory Street, Coventry, CV1 5FB, United Kingdom. Prof. Michael J. Tooley School of Geography and Geology, Kingston University, Penrhyn Road, Kingston upon Thames, KT1 2EE, United Kingdom. Dr. Hans Von Storch Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e.V., Institute fur Meteorologie, DE- 20146, Hamburg, Germany. Dr.JandeWolde Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research, University of Utrecht, IMAU, Princetonplein 5, 3584 CC Utrecht, The Netherlands. Dr. Philip Woodworth Centre for Coastal and Marine Science, Proudman Océanographie Laboratory, Bidston Observatory, Birkenhead, Merseyside, L43 7RA, United Kingdom. Prof. Susanna Zerbini Dipartimento di Fisica, Settore di Geofísica, Università degli Studi di Bologna, Viale, Berti Pichat, 8 I- 40127, Bologna, Italy. VII Sea Levd Change and Goastal Processes: Implications for Europe FOREWORD This book is one of the outcomes of the expert workshop "Climate change and Sea level research in Europe: State of the art and future research needs" held at Mataro, Spain, in April 1997, organised under the auspices of the European Commission's Research Directorate General. As the workshop tide indicates its aim was to review the state of sea level research in Europe and to identify the most important needs for future research. After many years of sea-level research under the European Commission's Environment and Climate programmes it was thought timely to summarise the main achievements, to identify gaps and needs and to reinforce links to application and management. This is also consistent with the objectives of EC's Fifth Framework Programme, which stresses the need for multidisciplinary approaches and of the stronger involvement of users and stakeholders in the research effort. The book reflects these new requirements and describes recent developments in the understanding and prediction of changes in sea level, its effects on the European coastline and its consequences for coastal zone management. The latest scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) indicate an increase in global mean sea level of some 18cm per century. The book discusses the concept of sea level change in response to global warming. Very importandy it stresses the need to consider local sea level changes, as sea levels will evolve differendy in different parts of the world. Equally important, it underlines an integrative view of coastal processes and development,