Appendix SIR-2 Climate Change Dixie National Forest Oil & Gas Leasing Environmental Impact Statement Climate Change Report Prepared for: US Forest Service Dixie National Forest 1789 North Wedgewood Lane Cedar City, UT 84721-7769 Prepared by: JBR Environmental Consultants, Inc. 8160 South Highland Drive Sandy, UT 84093 Contact: Brian Buck 801.943.4144 February 2010 Table of Contents Introduction ................................................................................................................................ vi 1.0 Climate Change Literature Overview ............................................................................... 1 1.1 The Greenhouse Effect (Science / Process) ................................................................ 1 1.2 Historical Study of and Concern for Earth‟s Climate Change ....................................... 2 1.3 Global Community Action ............................................................................................. 3 1.3.1 Establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ....................... 3 1.3.2 First Assessment Report ....................................................................................... 3 1.3.3 Supplementary Reports ........................................................................................ 5 1.3.4 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and Conference of the Parties ……………………………………………………………………………………………...5 1.3.5 Second Assessment Report .................................................................................. 5 1.3.6 Second Conference of the Parties ........................................................................ 6 1.3.7 Kyoto Protocol ...................................................................................................... 7 1.3.8 Third Assessment Report...................................................................................... 7 1.3.9 Fourth Assessment Report ................................................................................... 9 1.3.10 Fifteenth Conference of the Parties ......................................................................12 1.3.11 Fifth Assessment Report ......................................................................................12 1.4 Anthropogenic Contributions and Relationship to Climate Change .............................13 1.4.1 Carbon Dioxide ....................................................................................................13 1.4.2 Methane ...............................................................................................................14 1.4.3 Nitrous Oxide .......................................................................................................14 1.4.4 Halocarbons ........................................................................................................14 1.4.5 Indirect Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols ............................................................14 1.5 Effects of Anthropogenic Contributions to Climate ......................................................15 1.5.1 Temperature ........................................................................................................15 1.5.2 Climate ................................................................................................................15 1.5.3 El Niño/La Niña ....................................................................................................15 1.5.4 Tropical Storms ....................................................................................................16 2.0 Potential Environmental Impacts of Climate Change on Resources ..............................17 2.1 Global .........................................................................................................................18 2.2 North America .............................................................................................................18 2.2.1 Climate ................................................................................................................18 2.2.2 Water Resources .................................................................................................19 Appendix SIR-2 - Climate Change i Dixie National Forest Oil and Gas Leasing EIS 2.2.3 Ecosystem ...........................................................................................................19 2.2.4 Socioeconomics and Health .................................................................................19 2.3 Regional (Southwest / Arid West / Rocky Mountains) .................................................20 2.3.1 Climate ................................................................................................................20 2.3.2 Water Resources .................................................................................................21 2.3.3 Ecosystem ...........................................................................................................22 2.3.4 Socioeconomics and Health .................................................................................23 2.4 Utah ............................................................................................................................23 2.4.1 Climate ................................................................................................................24 2.4.2 Water Resources .................................................................................................24 2.4.3 Ecosystem ...........................................................................................................24 2.4.4 Socioeconomics and Health .................................................................................25 3.0 Emissions Estimates for Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions .............................25 3.1 Methodology and Uncertainty .....................................................................................25 3.2 Quantitative Analysis ..................................................................................................27 3.2.1 Dixie NF Oil and Gas Activities: Greenhouse Gas Emission Profile .....................27 3.2.2 Baseline Condition ...............................................................................................30 3.2.3 Greenhouse Emissions in Utah and Regionally ...................................................32 3.2.4 United States .......................................................................................................34 3.2.5 Global ..................................................................................................................37 3.2.6 Summary .............................................................................................................38 4.0 Impacts Analysis ............................................................................................................38 4.1 Connected Actions on Global Warming .......................................................................38 4.1.1 Connected Actions GHG Emissions Compared to Existing US and Global emissions ...........................................................................................................................38 4.1.2 Effects of Connected Actions on Foreseeable Impacts of Climate Change ..........39 4.2 Effects of Climate Change on the Dixie NF and the Cumulative Effects Area..............39 5.0 Foreseeable Future Responses .....................................................................................40 5.1 Electric Energy Supply ................................................................................................40 5.1.1 Nuclear Energy ....................................................................................................40 5.1.2 Renewable Energy ..............................................................................................40 5.1.3 Increased Efficiency .............................................................................................42 5.1.4 Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) .......................................................42 5.2 Transportation .............................................................................................................42 5.2.1 Road Transport ....................................................................................................43 Appendix SIR-2 - Climate Change ii Dixie National Forest Oil and Gas Leasing EIS 5.2.2 Rail Transport ......................................................................................................43 5.2.3 Aircraft .................................................................................................................43 5.2.4 Biofuels ................................................................................................................44 5.2.5 Public Transportation ...........................................................................................44 5.3 Residential and Commercial Buildings ........................................................................44 5.4 Industry .......................................................................................................................44 5.5 Agriculture ..................................................................................................................45 5.6 Forestry ......................................................................................................................45 5.7 Waste Management ....................................................................................................46