Institut für Raumplanung Fakultät Raumplanung · Universität Dortmund Berichte aus dem Institut für Raumplanung 54 Johannes Bröcker, Artis Kancs, Carsten Schürmann, Michael Wegener Methodology for the Assessment of Spatial Economic Impacts of Transport Projects and Policies Deliverable 2 of the project IASON (Integrated Appraisal of Spatial Economic and Network Effects of Transport Investments and Policies) of the 5th RTD Framework Programme of the European Commission Kiel and Dortmund, February 2002 Institut für Raumplanung Fakultät Raumplanung, Universität Dortmund D-44221 Dortmund Tel. 0231-7552291, Fax 0231-7554788 Contents 3 Contents Page 1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 5 2 The Extended SASI Model ............................................................................................... 8 2.1 Theoretical Approaches ............................................................................................ 8 2.2 Model Overview ....................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Model Extensions ...................................................................................................... 12 2.4 Submodels ................................................................................................................. 14 2.4.1 European Developments ................................................................................. 14 2.4.2 Regional Accessibility .................................................................................... 15 2.4.3 Regional GDP ................................................................................................. 17 2.4.4 Regional Employment .................................................................................... 19 2.4.5 Regional Population ........................................................................................ 20 2.4.6 Regional Labour Force ................................................................................... 22 2.4.7 Socio-economic Indicators ............................................................................. 23 2.4.8 Cohesion Indicators ........................................................................................ 24 2.5 Other Model Output ................................................................................................. 25 2.6 Data Requirements .................................................................................................... 27 2.6.1 Simulation Data................................................................................................ 27 2.6.2 Calibration/Validation Data ............................................................................ 29 3 The New CGEurope Model ............................................................................................. 30 3.1 Modelling the Spatial Dimension of Transport Benefits .......................................... 31 3.2 Extending CGEurope for the IASON Project .......................................................... 31 3.3 Non-Formal Description of the New CGEurope ...................................................... 33 3.4 The Mathematical Structure of the New CGEurope Model ..................................... 36 3.4.1 The Equations of the Equilibrium .................................................................. 36 3.4.2 Household Behaviour and Welfare Measurement ......................................... 39 3.4.3 Transport Costs ............................................................................................... 39 3.4.4 Calibration ....................................................................................................... 41 3.4.5 Model Results to be Used in Project Assessment ......................................... 44 3.5 The CGEurope Model Data Requirements ............................................................... 45 3.5.1 Regional Data .................................................................................................. 46 3.5.2 National Accounting Data .............................................................................. 48 3.5.3 Economic Sectors ............................................................................................ 49 3.5.4 Transport Costs ............................................................................................... 51 3.5.5 Passenger Transport Flows .............................................................................. 51 4 Regions and Networks ...................................................................................................... 52 4.1 System of Regions .................................................................................................... 52 4.2 Trans-European Networks ........................................................................................ 52 4.3 Future Work .............................................................................................................. 62 Contents 4 5 Possible Scenarios .............................................................................................................. 64 5.1 Transport Infrastructure Scenarios ............................................................................ 64 5.2 Socio-Economic Scenarios ....................................................................................... 65 5.3 Scenario Applications ............................................................................................... 66 6 Conclusions ........................................................................................................................ 67 7 References .......................................................................................................................... 69 8 Annex ................................................................................................................................. 75 IASON Regions ..................................................................................................................75 Introduction 5 1 Introduction The goal of the IASON project is to improve the understanding of the impact of transportation policies on short- and long-term spatial development in the EU by developing a unified as- sessment framework for transport project and transport policies at the European level inte- grating network, regional economic and macro-economic impacts. The project responds to Subtasks 2, 4 and 5 of Task 2.1.2/4 of the Cluster 'Socio-economic Impacts of Transport Investments and Policy and Network Effects' of Key Action 2 'Sustain- able Mobility and Intermodality' of Objective 2.1: 'Socio-Economic Scenarios for Mobility of People and Goods' of the Thematic Programme 'Promoting Competitive and Sustainable Growth' of the 5th Framework Programme for Research and technology Development of the European Union. At the heart of the IASON project lie the following activities: - improvement of existing assessment frameworks by ensuring that direct and indirect im- pacts are clearly distinguished within the appraisal, and that the incidence of benefits and costs, and sources of additionality and/or double-counting are transparent. - a systematic and quantitative analysis of the network, spatial and socio-economic impacts of transport investments and policies by refining existing EU-level models and carrying out scenario simulations. - building up and maintaining a discussion platform for the cluster in order to facilitate inter- actions between Subtask 5, the other subtasks of the cluster and the scientific community. - building guidelines and recommendations for project analysis of transport investments and policies and for the development of supporting tools and databases, in order to improve the applicability of the outputs of the project in policy analysis. The main innovations of the IASON project lie in the field of the methodological research on project assessment, its further development in order to allow applications at the EU level and the proposed modelling approach, which has not yet been applied in this conjunction before. Based upon this structure, at the end of the project an effective tool to evaluate in a coherent way the aspects of sustainability, cohesion, environmental-friendliness and efficiency of transport policies and projects will exist. The consortium of IASON consists of partners from six countries: Christian-Albrechts Uni- versity of Kiel (D), University of Dortmund (D), University of Karlsruhe (D), NETR (F), VTT (FIN), TRANSMAN (H), NEA (NL), Free University of Amsterdam (NL), University of Groningen (NL), ME&P (UK) and University of Leeds (UK) under the co-ordination of TNO Inro (NL). Objectives of Work Package 2 The general goal of Work Package 2 is to perform a systematic and quantitative analysis of the spatial, network and socio-economic impacts of transport investments and policy by re- fining existing EU-level models and carrying out scenario simulations in order to improve the understanding of the impact of transportation policies on short- and long-term spatial devel- opment in the EU. The specific objectives of the Task 2.1 are following: Introduction 6 1. Extension and refinement of specification of the SASI model: new indicators of location advantages; new accessibility indicators taking account of interaction costs and price lev- els; test of forecasting rates of growth; incorporation of wage levels and production costs;