DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT Draft Helderberg District Baseline and Analysis Report 2019 State of the Population and Environment DRAFT Version 1.1 28 November 2019 Page 1 of 61 DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT Contents 1 DEMOGRAPHICS .......................................................................................................... 6 Overview .................................................................................................................... 6 Population .................................................................................................................. 7 District Trends ...................................................................................................... 7 Spatial Distribution ............................................................................................. 8 Population Structure ........................................................................................ 13 Households ............................................................................................................... 16 District Trends .................................................................................................... 16 Spatial Distribution ........................................................................................... 17 Employment............................................................................................................. 19 District Trends .................................................................................................... 19 Spatial Distribution ........................................................................................... 20 Income ..................................................................................................................... 22 District Trends .................................................................................................... 22 Spatial Distribution ........................................................................................... 23 2 NATURAL AND HERITAGE ENVIRONMENT .................................................................. 25 Status Quo, Trends and Patterns ........................................................................... 25 Geology, Topography, Soils & Mineral Resources .............................................. 25 Geology ............................................................................................................ 25 Topography ...................................................................................................... 26 Soils .................................................................................................................... 26 Mineral Resources ........................................................................................... 27 Hydrology ................................................................................................................. 29 Hydrology ......................................................................................................... 29 Estuaries............................................................................................................. 31 Wetlands ........................................................................................................... 32 Dams ................................................................................................................. 32 Groundwater/ Aquifers ................................................................................... 33 Biodiversity ............................................................................................................... 36 Vegetation ....................................................................................................... 36 Conservation .................................................................................................... 37 Fauna ................................................................................................................ 39 Coastal Areas and Dunes ...................................................................................... 42 Page 2 of 61 DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT Coast ................................................................................................................. 42 Dunes................................................................................................................. 44 Erosion ............................................................................................................... 44 Agriculture and Mineral Resources ............................................................... 45 Air Quality ........................................................................................................................ 45 Green Infrastructure ....................................................................................................... 45 Heritage and cultural resources ........................................................................... 46 Key Development Pressure and Opportunities .................................................. 58 Development Pressures and Constraints ...................................................... 58 Spatial Implications for Helderberg District Plan ................................................. 60 Page 3 of 61 DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT Page 4 of 61 DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT STATE OF THE POPULATION Page 5 of 61 DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT 1 DEMOGRAPHICS Overview As of 2018, the Helderberg District comprises the second smallest proportion of the overall metropolitan population at 6.39%. Despite its small size, the district population nearly doubled (increasing by 87.06%) from 150 257 to 281 077 between 2001 and 2018. This translates to an annual average growth rate of 5.12% – the third highest of all 8 districts and significantly greater than the metropolitan rate of 3.06%. Figure x: Overview of key demographics statistics in the Helderberg District (Census, 2001; Census, 2011; 2018 estimates; HIS Markit, 2019) In contrast to the overall metropolitan trend, the rate of household growth in the district has remained fairly consistent with population growth, reflecting relatively more stability in average household sizes. Thus, the greater demand for housing due to households splitting into smaller units seen in the metropolitan area as a whole is not as significant a pressure in Helderberg. Page 6 of 61 DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT Despite the rapid increase in population, the district unemployment rate has decreased considerably, from 25.40% in 2001 to 20.26% in 2011. All the while, the labour force participation rate has remained relatively unchanged, representing a tangible and absolute (as opposed to relative) increase in the number of employment opportunities to which people have access. At 0.62, Helderberg has the highest Gini Coefficient of all 8 districts and thus has the largest degree of income inequality – on par with the metropolitan and national averages of 0.62 and 0.63, respectively. The highest unemployment rates as well as the lowest median household incomes are concentrated in areas straddling the boundary between Strand and Gordon’s Bay, most prominently Lwandle, Nomzamo and Broadlands. The former two are also home to the largest informal settlements in the district. Two further vulnerable areas (combining relatively high unemployment, low household income and the presence of informality) are Macassar and Sir Lowry’s Pass Village. Population District Trends As of 2018, based on past growth trends, the population of the Helderberg District is estimated at 281 077 (Table X below). In effect, it comprises a mere 6.39% of the city’s total population of 4 400 240 – the second lowest proportion above Table Bay’s 5.76%. In contrast with its small population size, the district has experienced the third largest population growth rate between 2001 and 2018. In that time, the district’s population nearly doubled (increasing by 87.06%) from 150 257 to 281 077, equating to an average annual growth rate of 5.12%. This was significantly higher than the average annual metropolitan population growth rate of 3.06% (Table X & Figure X below) and was comparable to the Northern District (5.49%) and Blaauwberg (6.54% per annum). This high growth rate relative to other districts means that Helderberg has come to comprise a greater share of metropolitan population over time, from 5.19% in 2001 to 5.96% in 2011 and, finally, 6.39% in 2018. However, Hekderberg has seen a decrease in annual average population growth rate over time, from 4.83% in the 2001–2011 period to 3.74% in the 2011–2018 period, suggesting that population growth in the district may be reaching a plateau (Table X below). Page 7 of 61 DRAFT HELDERBERG DISTRICT BASELINE AND ANALYSIS REPORT 2019 – STATE OF THE POPULATION AND STATE OF THE ENVIRONMENT Table x: District versus metropolitan population trends 2001–2018 (Census 2001, 2011 & 2018 estimates)