uc 875 DEPARTMENT OF TFPN^ORTATION .067 JUN 1 4 1974 v . 3 LU'.CU'Ulf MARINE WEATHER DISSEMINATION SYSTEMS STUDY Prepared for UNITED STATES COAST GUARD 400 7th Street, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20590 by COMPUTER SCIENCES CORPORATION 16 August 1971 DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION • UNITED STATES COAST GUARD VOLUME III - SYSTEMS EFFECTIVENESS MEASUREMENT tv c [ DEPABT^^frW^ f mz ; TJUJ*S»ORTA PJ§|f . C (s 7 i /. s l JVN14W4 t i. MARINE WEATHER DISSEMINATION -* — '"'"‘""I" SYSTEMS STUDY t/.j. VOLUME ill SYSTEMS EFFECTIVENESS MEASUREMENT Prepared for UNITED STATES COAST GUARD 400 7th Street, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20591 16 AUGUST 1971 COMPUTER SCIENCES CORPORATION 6565 Arlington Boulevard Falls Church, Virginia 22046 Major Offices and Facilities Throughout the World . TECHNICAL REPORT STANDARD TITLE PAGE 1. Report No. 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. DOT-CG-00579A-2 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Dissemination Marine Weather 16 August 1971 Systems Study 6. Performing Organization Code Volume 3 - Systems Effectiveness Measurement r. Author(s) Performing Organization Report No. 13. 12. B. J. Crowe, G. M. Fereno, E. Holliman DOT-CG-00579A-2 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Unit No. 14. Work Computer Sciences Corporation 15. 6565 Arlington Boulevard 11. Contract or Grant No. Falls Church, VA 22046 DOT-CG-OO 5 79A Type of Report and Period Covered 16. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address Final Report, Volume 3 U. S. Coast Guard August 19 70-Auqust 19 71 400 7th Street, S.W. Sponsoring Agency Code Washington, DC 20591 Supplementary Notes Abstract Systems effectiveness of marine weather dissemination systems is 17.measured against carefully established criteria. First level effective- ness, accessibility, is measured in terms of coverage, audience, and system schedule. Second level effectiveness is examined in terms of timeliness. The analysis addresses systems operated by the U.S. Coast Guard, the National Weather Service, public coast stations and commercial broadcasters The work described was performed in the second phase of a study aimed at improving the dissemination of weather information to marine users and at establishing guidelines for future Coast Guard research and development efforts in this field. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement WEATHER DISSEMINATION BOATING SAFETY Unlimited SYSTEMS EFFECTIVENESS 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages Unclassified Unclassified 323 22. Price : FOREWORD This is the second of four reports prepared by Computer Sciences Corporation for the U.S. Coast Guard during the course of a Study of How Best to Utilize Coast Guard Communication Facilities for Weather Dissemination to Marine Users. The study was performed under Contract DOT-CG-OO , 579-A, which was awarded to CSC on August 31, 1970 and completed August 16, 1971. The study was divided into four phases • Task 1 - Familiarization of the study team with existing marine weather dissemination systems, and the character- ization of these systems in terms of their facilities, policies and procedures. • Task 2 - Measurement of effectiveness of existing and planned weather dissemination systems, following the development of standards and criteria against which to measure this effectiveness. • Task 3 - Formulation of recommendations for changes in the facilities, policies and procedures of the U.S. Coast Guard and other government and nongovernment agencies considered necessary to improve the dissemination of weather information to marine users. • Task 4 - Generation of guidelines for future USCG research and development effort in the area of weather dissemina- tion and alerting techniques in terms of operational con- straints, performance requirements and cost data. CSC wishes to acknowledge the assistance of CDR B. F. Hollingsworth, USCG, as Technical Representative to this study and also of LCDR E. Jones and CWO R. J. Williams in making data available for the study. CSC would also like to take this oppor- tunity to thank Mr. Max Mull, Mr. William J. McKee, Jr., and li Mr. Warren Hight of the National Weather Service, NOAA, for their valuable contributions during the study. It should be noted that the conclusions presented in this report are solely those of CSC and do not necessarily reflect the views of the above mentioned representatives of the USCG and NWS. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Section Page FOREWORD . ii SUMMARY xiii 1 STUDY RATIONALE AND METHODOLOGY 1-1 1.1 Introduction 1-1 1.2 Scope of the Analysis 1-1 1.3 Characterizing the System 1-2 1.3.1 The System - A Disseminator 1-2 1.3.2 System Interfaces 1-9 1.4 Defining Effectiveness of the MWD System.. 1-11 1.4.1 General 1-11 1.4.2 Criteria for Defining System Effective- ness 1-12 1.5 Methodology for MWD System Effectiveness Measurement. 1-14 1.5.1 Level 1 Effectiveness - Accessibility... 1-14 1.5.2 Level 2 Effectiveness - Timeliness 1-16 2 COVERAGE 2-1 2.1 Introduction 2-1 2.2 Commercial Broadcast Coverage 2-1 2.3 National Weather Service, 162.55-MHz Continuous Broadcast Coverage 2-7 2.4 Coast Guard VHF/FM System Coverage 2-11 2.5 Public Coast Class IIIB (VHF-FM) Radiotelephone Coverage 2-12 2.6 Public Coast Class IIB Radiotelephone Stations 2-20 2.7 Coast Guard Stations Available for Weather Broadcast in the 2-MHz Band 2-21 2.8 Environmental Channel Coverage 2-21 2.9 Consideration of Citizens Band Radio Service 2-25 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Section Page 3 AUDIENCE 3-1 3.1 Introduction 3-1 3.2 Development of the Model 3-1 3.3 Interpretation of the Data 3-3 3.4 Structure of the Model 3-4 3.5 Application of the Model 3-17 3.6 Simplification of the Model 3-37 3.7 Modification of the Model 3-38 3.7.1 Validation of the Model 3-38 3.7.2 Marine Radiotelephone Distribution 3-39 3.7.3 NWS Receiver Distribution 3-4 3 4 SYSTEM SCHEDULE EFFECT 4-1 4.1 Introduction 4-1 4.2 Development of Schedule Model 4-1 4.3 Application to Asynchronous Multi-Schedule Systems 4-6 5 TIMELINESS 5-1 5.1 Introduction 5-1 5.2 Development of the Model 5-1 5.3 Weather Data 5-2 5.4 Conclusions 5-5 6 NONBROADCAST SYSTEMS 6-1 6.1 Introduction 6-1 6.2 Coastal Warning Display System 6-1 6.3 Telephone Systems 6-3 I 7 OFFSHORE AND HIGH-SEAS SYSTEMS 7-1 7.1 Introduction 7-1 7.2 Effectiveness Criteria 7-1 7.3 Offshore and High-Seas Application 7-2 7.4 Dissemination Responsiveness 7-3 7.5 Evaluation of the Systems 7-4 v 3 TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Section Page 8 ANALYSIS RESULTS 8-1 8.1 Coverage 8-1 8.2 Audience 8-1 8.3 Schedule.... 8-2 8.4 Summary of Results 8-2 9 CONCLUSIONS 9-1 9.1 General Performance 9-1 9.2 Validity of the Results 9-2 9.3 Future Study 9-3 Appendix A CHARACTERIZATION OF RECEIVER TYPES A-l A . 1 Introduction A-l A. 2 Scope A-l A. 3 Test Procedure A-2 A. 4 Performance of the Tests A-3 A. 5 Results... A-8 A. 6 Conclusions ••••••••••• A- 1 B EXTERNAL AND MANMADE RADIO NOISE B-l B. l Introduction B-l B.2 Portable Receivers B-6 B.3 Installed Receivers B-7 B.4 Conclusions B-8 C RECEIVER DISTRIBUTION DATA C-l D RECEIVER DISTRIBUTION - ZONE SELECTION ERROR ANALYSIS D-l D.l Introduction D-l D.2 Parametric Analysis D-l D . 3 Errors in Practical Calculations D-6 E REFERENCES E-l F BIBLIOGRAPHY F-l VI LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS Figure Title Page 1-1 Scenario Area #1 - New Jersey Coast 1-3 1-2 Scenario Area #2 - Chesapeake Bay 1-4 1-3 Scenario Area #3 - Florida Coast 1-5 1-4 Scenario Area #4 - Gulf Coast 1-6 4-1-5 Scenario Area #5 - North Pacific Coast 1-7 5- 1-6 Scenario Area #6 - Great Lakes Region 1-8 4-1 Regular Broadcast Schedule 4-1 4-2 User Attempt to Access Broadcast 4-2 4-3 Model of Requirement for MWB Interception at Initiation 4-4 4 Two Overlapping Stations 4-6 1 Relationship of Time Elements 5-1 5-2 Characteristic Response Time Model 5-3 8-1 NWS Coverage - Scenario Area 1 8-9 8-2 Coast Guard VHF Coverage - Scenario Area 1 8-10 8-3 NWS Coverage - Scenario Area 2 8-11 8-4 Coast Guard VHF Coverage - Scenario Area 2 8-12 8-5 NWS Coverage - Scenario Area 3 8-13 8-6 Coast Guard VHF Coverage - Scenario Area 3 8-14 8-7 NWS Coverage - Scenario Area 4 8-15 8-8 Coast Guard VHF Coverage - Scenario Area 4 8-16 8-9 Coast Guard VHF Coverage - Scenario Area 5 8-17 8-10 NWS Coverage - Scenario Area 6 8-18 8-11 Coast Guard VHF Coverage - Scenario Area 6 8-19 8-12 Commercial Direct Marine Broadcast Schedule Scenario Area 1 8-28 r 8-13 Commercial Direct Marine Broadcast Schedule Scenario Area 2 8-29 8-14 Commercial Direct Marine Broadcast Schedule Scenario Area 3 8-30 8-15 Commercial Direct Marine Broadcast Schedule Scenario Area 4 8-31 vii 695 LIST OF ILLUSTRATIONS (Continued) Figure Title Page 8-16 Commercial Direct Marine Broadcast Schedule Scenario Area 5 8-32 8-17 Commercial Direct Marine Broadcast Schedule Scenario Area 6 8-33 8-18 Scheduled Broadcasts of Marine Forecasts by Coast Guard and Public Coast Marine Radiotelephone.