Emerging Issues Report Unmet needs and opportunities for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the G5 Sahel region Rachel Cooper University of Birmingham Roz Price Institute of Development Studies July 2019 About this report The K4D Emerging Issues report series highlights research and emerging evidence to policymakers to help inform policies that are more resilient to the future. K4D staff researchers work with thematic experts and DFID to identify where new or emerging research can inform and influence policy. This report is based on 30 days of desk-based research. The majority of this research was undertaken in May and June 2019, with a small section added in July 2019. K4D services are provided by a consortium of leading organisations working in international development, led by the Institute of Development Studies (IDS), with the Education Development Trust, Itad, University of Leeds Nuffield Centre for International Health and Development, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM), University of Birmingham International Development Department (IDD), and the University of Manchester Humanitarian and Conflict Response Institute (HCRI). For any enquiries, please contact [email protected]. Acknowledgements We would like to thank Lars Otto Naess, Institute of Development Studies, who provided advice and guidance on the development of this report. We also thank the following experts who voluntarily provided suggestions for relevant literature or other advice to the authors to support the preparation of this report. The content of the report does not necessarily reflect the opinions of any of the experts consulted. David Ockwell, University of Sussex Professor Jan Selby, University of Sussex Janani Vivekananda, Adelphi Jeremy Allouche, Institute of Development Studies Jeremy Lind, Institute of Development Studies Peter Little, Emory University Dr Rob Byrne, University of Sussex Suggested citation Cooper, R. & Price, R.A. (2019). Unmet needs and opportunities for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the G5 Sahel region. K4D Emerging Issues Report. Brighton, UK: Institute of Development Studies. Copyright This report was prepared for the UK Government’s Department for International Development (DFID) and its partners in support of pro-poor programmes. It is licensed for non-commercial purposes only. K4D cannot be held responsible for errors or any consequences arising from the use of information contained in this report. Any views and opinions expressed do not necessarily reflect those of DFID, K4D, or any other contributing organisation. © DFID – Crown copyright 2019. Contents 1. Overview .................................................................................................................................. 1 2. Climate change in the Sahel .................................................................................................. 6 3. National policies related to climate change ........................................................................ 8 4. Low-carbon development trajectories and strategies ........................................................ 9 Burkina Faso and Mauritania.................................................................................................. 10 Chad ....................................................................................................................................... 10 Mali ......................................................................................................................................... 14 Niger ....................................................................................................................................... 16 Opportunities for engagement ................................................................................................ 18 5. Adaptation and management .............................................................................................. 20 Key sectors ............................................................................................................................. 20 Opportunities for engagement ................................................................................................ 22 Barriers ................................................................................................................................... 27 6. Climate change and migration ............................................................................................ 29 Traditional and recent migration patterns ............................................................................... 29 Drivers and influences on migration patterns ......................................................................... 32 Legislation and international support ...................................................................................... 36 7. Climate change and conflict ................................................................................................ 38 Recent conflict dynamics in the Sahel.................................................................................... 38 Linking conflict, scarcity, and climate change in the Sahel .................................................... 39 Farmer–pastoralist conflicts in the Sahel ............................................................................... 43 Climate change-conflict risks in the Lake Chad basin ........................................................... 48 Regional support and gaps ..................................................................................................... 49 8. References ............................................................................................................................. 52 Boxes Box 1 Mali’s policy context ......................................................................................................... 9 Box 2 Migrant movements in Burkina Faso ............................................................................. 32 Box 3 Marginalisation and land rights in Niger ......................................................................... 46 Box 4 Lack of clarity over land use laws in Burkina Faso ....................................................... 47 Box 5 Land tenure in central Mali and conflict ......................................................................... 47 1. Overview This report provides an overview of potential opportunities and gaps in the G5 Sahel countries (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) in relation to the impacts of climate change. The report focuses on four main areas of interest, with additional sections giving a brief outline of the expected impacts of climate change in the Sahel and national policies related to climate change. The main sections are: ‘Low-carbon development trajectories and strategies’; ‘Adaptation and management’; ‘Climate change and migration’; and ‘Climate change and conflict’. The review is not exhaustive, but provides a summary of key literature, findings, and where appropriate, opportunities for engagement. Low-carbon development trajectories and adaptation The G5 Sahel countries are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change due to a combination of biophysical factors including aridity, and socioeconomic characteristics including the reliance on natural resources for livelihoods, the importance of agriculture and pastoralism for national economies, and weak governance. Despite the existence of a wide range of national climate change commitments across the G5 Sahel countries, integration of climate change into sectoral policies, ministries, and local development plans is limited, although varies by country. Technical capacity to implement climate change policies, plans, and programming is also limited at both the national and local government levels. Economic growth and development are key concerns of the G5 Sahel countries particularly in the context of climate change, which is likely to impact yields of key crops as well as other economic sectors. Chad, Mali, and Niger are interested in pursuing low-carbon growth strategies and their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) and economic development plans identify agriculture and energy as key sectors. Across the G5 Sahel, the agricultural sector is highly underdeveloped (Sartori & Fattibene, 2019). There is also a huge potential for developing renewable energy sources including solar and wind, with some evidence suggesting that micro grids and a focus on decentralised provision could be effective in addition to work at the national level. Investments in the two sectors could also be complementary: increasing rural access to electricity could strengthen agricultural value chains, increasing productivity and rural incomes. Adapting to and managing the impacts of climate change is also a challenge at the local, community, and household levels. Key sectors include agriculture, pastoralism, and water. Climate-smart agriculture, including drought-resistant seeds, extension services, and weather information are widely suggested as appropriate intervention strategies in the Sahel. Livelihoods, coping strategies, and natural resources use and management are inherently linked. Negative coping strategies, such as cutting trees to sell as fuelwood in times of drought, can increase deforestation and affect soil fertility, which in turn can negatively impact agricultural yields. Changing rainfall patterns due to climate change will interact with these dynamics, and are predicted to decrease