TRACECA Traffic and Feasibility Studies, Module B New Caspian Shipping Services Final Report December 2001 TRACECA Traffic and Feasibility Studies Module B: New Caspian Shipping Services REPORT COVER PAGE Project Title : Traffic and Feasibility Studies Module B Title: New Caspian Sea Shipping Services Project Number: TNREG 9803 Module B Countries: Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan (Georgia, Ukraine) Local Beneficiaries EC Consultant Azerbaijan BCEOM (Sub-contractor UNICONSULT) Contact person: Mr. Ikram Sadikov Address: Place des Frères Montgolfier 78286 Guyancourt Cedex, France Tel: +33 1 30 12 48 00 Fax: +33 1 30 12 10 95 E-mail: [email protected] Signature ___________________ Contact: Mr. Philippe Delaporte Kazakhstan Ministry of Transport and Communication Contact person Mr. Zhenis Kasymbek, Director Water Transportation Department Signature ___________________ Turkmenistan Contact person Mr. Bekmurat Gurbanmuradov Signature ___________________ Date of report : 28 December 2001 Reporting period : Final Report Authors of report : Project Team Module B EC Monitoring team _______________ _______________ ______________ [name] [signature] [date] EC Delegation ______________ _______________ ______________ [name] [signature] [date] EC TACIS Programme _______________ _______________ ______________ [task manager] [name] [signature] [date] BCEOM (Sub-contractor UNICONSULT Universal Transport Consulting) December 2001 2 TRACECA Traffic and Feasibility Studies Module B: New Caspian Shipping Services Contents 1 Project Synopsis for Module B............................................................................10 2 Summary ...............................................................................................................14 2.1 Potential Regional Markets ................................................................................................14 2.2 Existing Facilities and Market Players................................................................................17 2.3 Regulatory and Political Aspects........................................................................................19 2.4 Traffic Forecast ..................................................................................................................20 2.5 Future Facility Requirements .............................................................................................22 2.6 General Principles of Running a Shipping Company.........................................................23 2.7 Financial Analysis...............................................................................................................25 2.8 Lessons Learnt and Recommendations ............................................................................26 2.8.1 Lessons Learnt...................................................................................................................26 2.8.2 Recommendations .............................................................................................................27 3 Introduction ..........................................................................................................28 4 Potential Regional Markets..................................................................................29 4.1 Regional Economic, Political and Social Development and Markets.................................29 4.1.1 Azerbaijan ..........................................................................................................................29 4.1.2 Kazakhstan ........................................................................................................................30 4.1.3 Turkmenistan .....................................................................................................................30 4.1.4 Iran .....................................................................................................................................31 4.1.5 Russia ................................................................................................................................32 4.1.6 Conclusion and Outlook .....................................................................................................33 4.2 Commodities ......................................................................................................................35 4.2.1 Oil.......................................................................................................................................35 4.2.2 Dry Cargo...........................................................................................................................36 4.3 Competitive Traffic Links....................................................................................................37 4.3.1 Via Iran and Turkey............................................................................................................37 4.3.2 Via Turkmenistan ...............................................................................................................37 4.3.3 Via Russia ..........................................................................................................................38 4.3.3.1 Northern Route of the Trans-Asian Rail Corridor: China-Kazakhstan-Russia-Europe ......38 4.3.3.2 New Alternative Projects ....................................................................................................39 5 Existing Facilities and Market Players................................................................42 5.1 Port Facilities......................................................................................................................42 5.1.1 Azerbaijan ..........................................................................................................................42 5.1.1.1 Baku ...................................................................................................................................42 5.1.1.2 Dubendi..............................................................................................................................44 5.1.2 Kazakhstan ........................................................................................................................45 5.1.2.1 Aktau Commercial Sea Port...............................................................................................45 5.1.2.2 Atyrau and Bautino.............................................................................................................46 BCEOM (Sub-contractor UNICONSULT Universal Transport Consulting) December 2001 3 TRACECA Traffic and Feasibility Studies Module B: New Caspian Shipping Services 5.1.3 Turkmenistan .....................................................................................................................47 5.1.3.1 Turkmenbashi and Ufra .....................................................................................................47 5.1.3.2 Okarem and Cheleken .......................................................................................................49 5.1.4 Russia ................................................................................................................................50 5.1.5 Iran .....................................................................................................................................51 5.2 Vessels operating in the Caspian Sea ...............................................................................53 5.2.1 Tankers ..............................................................................................................................56 5.2.2 Dry cargo............................................................................................................................60 5.2.2.1 Multi-Purpose .....................................................................................................................60 5.2.2.2 Railway/Multi-purpose Ferries and Ro/Ro Vessels............................................................63 6 Regulatory and Political Aspects ........................................................................66 6.1 The Legal Status of the Caspian Sea in International Law ................................................66 6.2 Maritime Codes..................................................................................................................66 6.3 International Codes and Conventions ................................................................................66 6.4 Non-Discriminatory Practices.............................................................................................67 6.5 Conclusions........................................................................................................................67 7 Traffic Forecast.....................................................................................................68 7.1 Forecasting Methodology and Parameters ........................................................................69 7.1.1 Methodology.......................................................................................................................69 7.2 Results ...............................................................................................................................69 7.2.1 Aktau – Baku v.v. ...............................................................................................................69 7.2.2 Baku – Amirabad v.v..........................................................................................................72 7.2.3 Amirabad