A PIPS Research Journal Conflict and Peace Studies VOLUME 3 OCT-DEC 2010 NUMBER 4 Editor Muhammad Amir Rana Associate Editor Najam U Din Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS) 1 2 Contents Report Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan: Assessing Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security Safdar Sial and Abdul Basit 00 Abstracts Papers A Progressive Understanding of Pashtun Social Structures amidst Current Conflict in FATA Brian R. Kerr 00 Understanding FATA Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi 00 Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan: A Global Threat Khuram Iqbal 00 Analysis Analyzing Suicide Attacks in Pakistan Akbar Nasir Khan 00 Notes on Contributors 000 Guidelines for Contributors 000 3 4 Editor’s Note The current issue of Conflict and Peace Studies is divided into two parts. The first part carries the outcome of a recently concluded study on Balochistan by Pak Institute for Peace Studies (PIPS), whereas the second part explores the dynamics of the conflict in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The PIPS report on Balochistan presents a strategic analysis of the conflict in the province, the first in-depth study of its kind, which intends to advance an understanding of the causal factors, key players and dynamics of the conflict in Balochistan, which have a direct bearing on national and regional security. The PIPS report endeavors to explore the strategies and options of programmatic and policy interventions which may be feasible and effective in reducing the risk of violence and insecurity in the province. The second part is an attempt by PIPS to develop a better understanding of FATA. Brian R. Kerr has tried to unfold the Pashtun social structures in the context of the ongoing militancy in FATA. Syed Manzar Abbas Zaidi has endeavored to provide insight into the tribal socio-economic and socio- political dynamics and argues that comprehending them is as important as understanding the religious indoctrination that has prompted the tribal lashkars (raiding parties) to take on the form of a formidable army. Khuram Iqbal has looked into the potential and capabilities of the Pakistani Taliban expanding their operations beyond the tribal region. Akbar Nasir Khan argues that Pape’s thesis about the genesis of suicide terrorism, which he developed through analysis of an extensive database of suicide attacks in many countries, is not valid in the case of Pakistan and there is a need to look for other explanations for suicide attacks in the country. It is hoped that these studies will help promote a better understanding of the context and contours of the conflict in Balochistan and FATA. Muhammad Amir Rana 5 Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan 6 Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan Report Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan: Assessing Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security Safdar Sial and Abdul Basit Acknowledgements We owe our gratitude to a great many people whose help, insightful reviews, comments and continuous support during the fieldwork and analysis helped us complete this report successfully. Our deepest thanks go to Muhammad Amir Rana whose invaluable inputs assisted us in articulating the arguments precisely and make necessary corrections as and when needed. Special thanks to Najam U Din for editing and reviewing the report. We greatly appreciate the efforts of field researchers, Shahzada Zulfiqar and Mufti Sanaullah in Balochistan, Ali Abbas in Islamabad, and Zahid Hassan in Lahore, who conducted interviews with a range of people successfully despite the time constraints and security risks, particularly in Balochistan. We would also like to express our gratitude to PIPS’ researchers Khuram Iqbal, Nida Naz and Shagufta Hayat for their continuous help and assistance in collection of related research literature, provision of necessary data, documents, and searching the archives with attention and care. Finally, the field and desk research for the study would not have been possible without remarkable coordination by Mujtaba Muhammad Rathore. 7 Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan Contents 1. Introduction and Methodology 2. Conflict Analysis 2.1 Structures: An Account of Factors 2.1.1 Geographical 2.1.2 Political i. Relations with the Centre ii. Governance 2.1.3 Economic i. Development ii. Control and Distribution of Resources 2.1.4 Social i. Ethnicity and Culture ii. Religion iii. Security: Physical and Sociocultural 2.2 Actors: Agendas, Capacities and Locations 2.2.1 Nationalist Insurgents 2.2.2 Religious/Sectarian Extremists 2.2.3 Smugglers and Criminal Syndicates 2.2.4 Relations and Nexuses 2.2.5 Political Parties 2.2.6 The State and its Security Apparatus 2.2.7 Civil Society and Development Agencies 2.3 Dynamics of Conflict 2.3.1 Long-term Trends or Historical Context 2.3.2 Triggers of Violence i. Nawab Akbar Bugti’s Murder ii. Enforced Disappearances iii. Conflict Induced Internal Displacements iv. Target Killings v. Floods 2.3.3 Regional Context and External Factors 2.3.4 An Analysis of Future Scenarios 3. State Responses and Capacities 4. Strategic Policy Options for Peace and Security 8 Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan 1. Introduction and Methodology A federation made up of many units, Pakistan has faced the challenge of nationalist tendencies based in ethnic identities in the provinces of Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa amid issues of political autonomy, resource allocation and economic disparities. With regard to state- society relations, governance issues, political instability, discriminations in the economic system, and uneven social development have also been among the key challenges. Mounting economic pressures, growing economic inequalities and a sense of deprivation in less developed regions, particularly Balochistan, have indeed remained potential threats to Pakistan’s internal security and stability. Infested with a number of insurgent, religious extremist and sectarian groups, the security landscape of Balochistan has become exceedingly complex over the last few years. The death of Nawab Akbar Bugti on August 26, 2006 in a military operation had instigated the current phase of the Baloch insurgency, the fourth one since the creation of Pakistan. Baloch insurgents have launched attacks on state institutions, security forces, gas and power installations and on non-Baloch individuals in the province since Nawab Bugti’s death. The role of Baloch insurgents in compounding Balochistan’s law and order woes notwithstanding, a number of religiously motivated militant and sectarian groups have also grown in strength and expanded their areas of operation across Balochistan. Quetta, the provincial capital, is becoming a hub of local and foreign religious militant groups and sectarian outfits. There have been numerous media reports of attacks on barbershops, music shops and on other “un-Islamic” businesses by religious extremists including the Taliban in Quetta in the recent past. Meanwhile, the Shia Hazara community in Balochistan, with a population of around 300,000 people, is currently facing unprecedented attacks and violence, mainly from sectarian militants groups. Terrorist attacks and targeted killings, mainly perpetrated by Baloch insurgents and religious extremists, have gradually increased in the province, particularly after 2006. Around 2,400 such attacks have killed 1,186 people and injured another 3,117 in Balochistan in four years, from January 2006 until December 2009. 1 The incumbent government has taken a number of steps including formulation of the Aghaz-e-Huqooq-e-Balochistan package (2009), the 7 th 9 Conflict and Insecurity in Balochistan National Finance Commission Award (2009) and the 18th Constitutional Amendment (2010), which include some concessions and benefits for the Baloch people. However, Baloch nationalists and insurgents continue to dismiss the government’s reconciliatory overtures, calling them nothing more than deception and a continuation of policies of former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. The Balochistan chief minister and other political leaders who are part of the government have also remained cautious in issuing any statement or taking any initiative on aforementioned measures. However, all are still advocating the need for confidence-building measures to persuade the Baloch towards reconciliation. In addition to its direct human cost, the poor law and order in Balochistan has a negative impact on development and stability in the province, in Pakistan and in the wider region. Although the nature of political grievances felt by many Baloch towards Islamabad are reasonably well described in the available literature, and the Government of Pakistan seems to have made unprecedented efforts since the 2008 elections to address these grievances, many aspects of the conflict and the insecurity in the province are not as well understood. While most of the research work on Balochistan has focused on one aspect of the Baloch insurgency or the other, accounts of lack of security in Balochistan come mainly from the media, which is just a day-to-day coverage or analysis of incidents of violence and terrorism in the province. Serious questions exist, for example, about the extent, causes and trends of insecurity; the sub-conflicts contributing to that insecurity; the nature of Baloch insurgent groups (including their capacity, organization, leadership, objectives, funding, recruitment and locations); the extent of criminal violence, smuggling and drug trafficking; the degree to which the Afghan Taliban or religious extremist groups are now active and entrenched