4 S E R I E macroeconomía del desarrollo G lobalization and Liberalization: The Impact on Developing Countries Barbara Stallings Economic Development Division Santiago, Chile, December 2001 This document was prepared by Barbara Stallings, Director of the Economic Development Division, Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC). The views expressed in this document, which has been reproduced without formal editing, are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Organization. United Nations Publication LC/L.1571-P ISBN:92-1-121313-4 ISSN:1680-8843 Copyright © United Nations, December 2001. All rights reserved Sales No.: E.01.II.G.114 Printed in United Nations, Santiago, Chile Applications for the right to reproduce this work are welcomed and should be sent to the Secretary of the Publications Board, United Nations Headquarters, New York, N.Y. 10017, U.S.A. Member States and their governmental institutions may reproduce this work without prior authorization, but are requested to mention the source and inform the United Nations of such reproduction. CEPAL - SERIE Macroeconomía del desarrollo No 4 Contents Summary ......................................................................................................5 Introduction ......................................................................................................7 I. Components and Mechanisms of Globalization.................9 II. Developing Countries in a World of Globalized Finance ...................................................................... 13 III. The Impact of the New Pattern of Financial Flows........... 19 A. Capital flows and growth ........................................................ 19 B. Capital flows and equity.......................................................... 23 C. Capital flows and government autonomy ............................... 26 IV Conclusions: Recommendations for Policy Change ....... 29 A. International policies ............................................................... 30 B. Domestic policies .................................................................... 30 C. Regional policies..................................................................... 31 References ............................................................................... 33 Serie Macroeconomía del desarrollo: Issues published........ 37 3 Globalization and Liberalization: The Impact on Developing Countries Tables Table 1. The role of developing countries in world trade and capital flows, 1980-98................. 10 Table 2. Net long-term resource flows and net transfers to developing countries, 1970-2000.... 14 Table 3. Short- versus long-term finance to developing countries, 1991-2000............................ 14 Table 4. Composition of long-term finance to developing countries, 1970-2000........................ 15 Table 5. Regional patterns of long-term capital flows to developing countries, 1970-2000 ....... 16 Table 6. Net short-term capital flows during recent financial crisis ............................................. 22 Table 7. Share of long-term capital flows to developing countries by region, 1970-2000 .......... 23 Table 8. Net concessional flows to developing countries, 1990-2000.......................................... 25 4 CEPAL - SERIE Macroeconomía del desarrollo No 4 Summary This paper analyzes the impact of globalization on developing countries over the last several decades. The first section examines the components and mechanisms of globalization. The second turns to financial globalization –considered to be the most important aspect of a multifaceted process– and looks in more detail at the changing trends in finance for developing countries. The third analyzes the impact of the new pattern of finance in terms of growth, equity, and government autonomy. The concluding section offers policy recommendations for making globalization a more positive force. Four basic arguments are developed in the paper with respect to the impact of financial globalization. First, globalization has increased the capital available to developing countries, which potentially increases their ability to grow faster than if they had to rely exclusively on their own resources. Not all capital flows contribute equally to growth, however; short-term flows and the purchase of existing assets are less valuable than investment in new facilities. At the same time, the increasing mobility of capital can also lead to greater volatility, which is very costly for growth. Second, capital flows are unequally distributed by region and country, thus skewing the patterns of growth. There is also an unequal distribution of capital within countries by geographic area, sector, type of firm, and social group, creating a division between winners and losers. Third, government attempts to extract the benefits from the globalization of capital, while limiting the costs, is more possible than usually thought. The source of many problems is local rather than global, and the experience of several countries indicates that “heterodox” policies can be followed. Finally, policy changes at the global, regional, and national levels could improve the picture just sketched out. 5 CEPAL - SERIE Macroeconomía del desarrollo No 4 Introduction Globalization is one of the most controversial topics of the early twenty-first century.1 Academic debates currently raging about globalization include whether it even exists (Unger, 1997), whether it is more important now than at some earlier date (Bordo, Eichengreen, and Irwin, 1999), whether it is displacing the nation state (Strange, 1996; Wade, 1996), and whether it is more important than regionalism (Fishlow and Haggard, 1992; Oman, 1994) or localism (Rosenau, 1997a). Also, of course, there are extensive analyses as well as polemics about whether the results are good or bad and for whom (see especially Rodrik, 1997 and 1999). Recently, such controversies have spilled over from academic journals to street demonstrations in locations as diverse as Seattle, Washington, Montreal and Genoa. This paper takes for granted that globalization exists and that it is a very important phenomenon without entering into the various comparisons with the past or other parallel processes.2 The main objective is to analyze the impact of globalization over the past several decades, particularly in terms of its effects on developing countries. To what extent has globalization constrained decision making in developing countries, and how has it affected the potential for growth and equity. While the focus is on the globalization of finance – arguably the most important aspect of the multifaceted process – we first take a broader look at the globalization phenomenon. This is followed by data on new trends in finance for developing countries, an 1 The author wishes to acknowledge helpful comments from the participants in a United Nations University seminar held in New York in December 1999 as well as those at the Secretary of State’s Roundtable, held at the Institute for Development Studies, University of Sussex, in July 2000, as part of the preparation for the U.K. White Paper on Globalization and Development. The assistance of Guillermo Mundt with the statistical data is also appreciated. 2 For an excellent analysis that does address comparative issues, see Held et al (1999). 7 Globalization and Liberalization: The Impact on Developing Countries analysis of the impact of the new pattern of financial flows, and some conclusions with respect to policy recommendations. Four basic arguments are developed in the paper with respect to the impact of financial globalization. First, globalization has increased the capital available to developing countries, which potentially increases their ability to grow faster than if they had to rely exclusively on their own resources. Not all capital flows contribute equally to growth, however; short-term flows and the purchase of existing assets are less valuable than investment in new facilities. At the same time, the increasing mobility of capital can also lead to greater volatility, which is very costly for growth. Second, capital flows are unequally distributed by region and country, thus skewing the patterns of growth. There is also an unequal distribution of capital within countries by geographic area, sector, type of firm, and social group, creating a division between winners and losers. Third, government attempts to extract the benefits from the globalization of capital, while limiting the costs, is more possible than usually thought. The source of many problems is local rather than global, and the experience of several countries indicates that “heterodox” policies can be followed. Finally, policy changes at the global, regional, and national levels could improve the picture just sketched out. 8 CEPAL - SERIE Macroeconomía del desarrollo No 4 I. Components and Mechanisms of Globalization There is no generally accepted definition of globalization; most attempts concentrate on the economic components. An exception is that of James Rosenau, who says: “Globalization [is] a label that is presently in vogue to account for peoples, activities, norms, ideas, goods, services, and currencies that are decreasingly confined to a particular geographic space and its local and established practices” (Rosenau, 1997b, p. 360). From this vast array, four separable, but interrelated, sets of issues are especially relevant: (a) macroeconomics (trade and finance), (b) microeconomics (the technological