FISCAL YEAR 2021 A BUDGET FOR AMERICA’S FUTURE ANALYTICAL PERSPECTIVES BUDGET OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET | OMB.GOV THE BUDGET DOCUMENTS Budget of the United States Government, provisions applicable to the appropriations of entire Fiscal Year 2021 contains the Budget Message of agencies or group of agencies. Information is also the President, information on the President’s priori- provided on certain activities whose transactions ties, and summary tables. are not part of the budget totals. Analytical Perspectives, Budget of the United Major Savings and Reforms, Fiscal Year States Government, Fiscal Year 2021 contains 2021, which accompanies the President’s Budget, analyses that are designed to highlight specified contains detailed information on major savings and subject areas or provide other significant presenta- reform proposals. The volume describes both major tions of budget data that place the budget in perspec- discretionary program eliminations and reductions tive. This volume includes economic and accounting and mandatory savings proposals. analyses, information on Federal receipts and collec- tions, analyses of Federal spending, information on BUDGET INFORMATION AVAILABLE ONLINE Federal borrowing and debt, baseline or current ser- vices estimates, and other technical presentations. The President’s Budget and supporting materi- als are available online at https://www.whitehouse. Supplemental tables and other materials that gov/omb/budget/. This link includes electronic ver- are part of the Analytical Perspectives volume sions of all the budget volumes, supplemental ma- are available at https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/ terials that are part of the Analytical Perspectives analytical-perspectives/. volume, spreadsheets of many of the budget tables, Appendix, Budget of the United States and a public use budget database. This link also in- Government, Fiscal Year 2021 contains detailed cludes Historical Tables that provide data on budget information on the various appropriations and funds receipts, outlays, surpluses or deficits, Federal debt, that constitute the budget and is designed primarily and Federal employment over an extended time pe- for the use of the Appropriations Committees. The riod, generally from 1940 or earlier to 2021 or 2025. Appendix contains more detailed financial informa- Also available are links to documents and materials tion on individual programs and appropriation ac- from budgets of prior years. counts than any of the other budget documents. It For more information on access to electronic ver- includes for each agency: the proposed text of ap- sions of the budget documents, call (202) 512-1530 propriations language; budget schedules for each in the D.C. area or toll-free (888) 293-6498. To pur- account; legislative proposals; narrative explana- chase the printed documents call (202) 512-1800. tions of each budget account; and proposed general GENERAL NOTES 1. All years referenced for budget data are fiscal years unless oth- erwise noted. All years referenced for economic data are calendar years unless otherwise noted. 2. At the time the Budget was prepared, the United States-Mexico- Canada Agreement Implementation Act (Public Law 116-113) had not yet been signed into law. As a result, the Budget includes a Government-wide allowance to represent the discretionary ap- propriations included in this proposal, which the Administration transmitted to the Congress on December 13, 2019, the House passed on December 19, 2019, and the Senate passed on January 16, 2020. 3. Detail in this document may not add to the totals due to rounding. U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE, WASHINGTON 2020 ISBN 978-0-16-095404-7 F ro as el t yb eh S epu ir tn e edn tn fo D co mu e tn .U s S G , . evo r emn tn P ublishing O eciff I tn re en :t skoob t ro e . opg . vog enohP : lot l f eer ( 668 ) 215 - 0081 ; D C a er ( a 202 ) 215 - 0081 90000 aF :x ( 202 ) 215 - 4012 aM :li S t I po CCD W , ihsa gn t no D , C 20402 - 1000 ISBN 978-0-16-095404-7 9 780160 954047 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page List of Charts and Tables �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������v Introduction 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................3 Economic and Budget Analyses 2. Economic Assumptions and Overview ..........................................................................................9 3. Long-Term Budget Outlook.........................................................................................................21 4. Federal Borrowing and Debt .......................................................................................................29 Management 5. Strengthening the Federal Workforce ........................................................................................47 6. Payment Integrity .......................................................................................................................59 7. Federal Real Property ................................................................................................................73 Budget Concepts and Budget Process 8. Budget Concepts ..........................................................................................................................79 9. Coverage of the Budget .............................................................................................................101 10. Budget Process ...........................................................................................................................107 Federal Receipts 11. Governmental Receipts .............................................................................................................125 12. Offsetting Collections and Offsetting Receipts ........................................................................135 13. Tax Expenditures .......................................................................................................................147 Special Topics 14. Aid to State and Local Governments ........................................................................................201 15. Information Technology .............................................................................................................219 16. Federal Investment ...................................................................................................................227 17. Research and Development .......................................................................................................233 18. Credit and Insurance.................................................................................................................241 19. Cybersecurity Funding ..............................................................................................................265 iii Page 20. Federal Drug Control Funding .................................................................................................271 Technical Budget Analyses 21. Current Services Estimates ......................................................................................................275 22. Trust Funds and Federal Funds ...............................................................................................287 23. Comparison of Actual to Estimated Totals ...............................................................................303 *Available on the internet at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/analytical-perspectives/ iv LIST OF CHARTS AND TABLES v LIST OF CHARTS AND TABLES LIST OF CHARTS Page 2–1. Forecast of Q4 over Q4 Growth Rate ..........................................................................................14 2–2. Range of Uncertainty for the Budget Deficit .............................................................................19 3–1. Comparison of Publicly Held Debt ..............................................................................................21 3–2. Comparison of Annual Surplus/Deficit .......................................................................................23 3–3. Alternative Productivity and Interest Assumptions ..................................................................24 3–4. Alternative Health Care Costs ....................................................................................................24 3–5. Alternative Discretionary Assumptions .....................................................................................25 3–6. Alternative Revenue Assumptions .............................................................................................25 3–7. Long Term Uncertainties ............................................................................................................26 5–1. Masters Degree or Above by Year for Federal and Private Sectors ..........................................48 5–2. High School Graduate or Less by Year for Federal and Private Sectors ..................................48 5–3. Average Age by Year for Federal and Private Sectors ...............................................................49 5–4. Government-Wide On-Board U.S. Distribution 10–1–1978 ......................................................49 5–5. Government-Wide On-Board U.S. Distribution 2–28–2019 ........................................................50 5–6. Potential Retirees to Younger than 30 Employees: Federal IT Workforce Vs. Federal Workforce ............................................................................................51