Illegal Immigration and Legalisation in Europe Dissertation zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades Dr. rer.pol. am Fachbereich IV der Uni- versität Trier vorgelegt von Frank Wehinger, M.A. Gutachter: Prof. Dr. Dr. h.c. Dieter Sadowski Prof. Dr. Ursula Dalinger Tag der mündlichen Prüfung: 15. April 2010 Diese Arbeit entstand am Institut für Arbeitsrecht und Arbeitsbeziehungen in der Europäishen Gemeinschaft (IAAEG), Universität Trier, während meiner Mitgliedschaft im Graduate Cent- re of Excellence: The Efficient Design of Labour Market Institutions. Allen Kolleginnen und Kollegen dort möchte ich danken für administrative Hilfeleistungen und wissenschaftliche Ratschläge, insbesondere Alexander Ahrens und Mihai Paunescu, mit denen ich immer wie- der einzelne Fragen diskutieren konnte. Frau Professor Dr. Ursula Dallinger und Herrn Pro- fessor Dr. Dieter Sadowski haben die Prüfung meiner Arbeit übernommen, auch Ihnen gilt mein herzlicher Dank. Meiner Frau bin ich für ihre bedingungslose Unterstützung während meiner Promotionsphase zutiefst zu Dank verpflichtet. Anteil am Gelingen meiner Laufbahn haben auch meine Eltern, die mir immer ihre Hilfe gewährt haben. Ihnen ist diese Arbeit zu- geeignet. 1 Contents A. Introduction .................................................................................................... 5 1. The empirical foundations of politics on illegal immigration ............................................ 5 1.1 Definition of illegal immigrants and their number ....................................................... 5 1.2 Illegal immigrants’ social structure............................................................................... 8 1.3 Economic consequences of illegal immigration ........................................................... 9 2. Theoretical aspects of politics on illegal immigration ...................................................... 12 2.1 The political economy approach ................................................................................. 12 2.2 Liberal norms .............................................................................................................. 15 2.3 Gathering legitimacy ................................................................................................... 16 3. Structure of the study ........................................................................................................ 18 B. Attitudes towards legalisation of illegal immigrants ................................. 20 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 20 2. Literature Overview .......................................................................................................... 22 3. Theory ............................................................................................................................... 29 3.1 Labour market hypothesis ........................................................................................... 29 3.2 Income and social spending hypothesis ...................................................................... 31 3.3 Social-psychological explanations .............................................................................. 32 3.4 National level characteristics ...................................................................................... 34 4. Operationalisation ............................................................................................................. 35 5. Data description ................................................................................................................ 38 6. Estimation model .............................................................................................................. 43 7. “Don’t know” and missings .............................................................................................. 49 8. Results .............................................................................................................................. 51 8.1 Null model .................................................................................................................. 52 8.2 Estimates with Random Intercepts .............................................................................. 52 8.3 Estimations with Random Slopes ............................................................................... 56 9. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................ 59 C. Debates on Legalisation of Illegal Immigrants: An analysis of parliamentary discussions in Germany and France ...................................... 69 1. Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 69 2. French and German policies towards illegal immigration ................................................ 72 2.1 France .......................................................................................................................... 72 2 2.2 Germany ...................................................................................................................... 75 3. Literature Overview .......................................................................................................... 78 4. Methodology ..................................................................................................................... 84 5. Data description ................................................................................................................ 86 6. Quantitative Analysis: Legitimating advocacy or rejection of legalisation...................... 88 7. Preliminary conclusion ..................................................................................................... 94 8. Qualitative Analysis ......................................................................................................... 95 8.1 Defining legalisation ................................................................................................... 95 8.2 (De-)Legitimising legalisation: patterns of interpretation .......................................... 99 8.2.1 The practical negative consequence of legalisation: the pull effect ..................... 99 8.2.2 The normative negative consequence of legalisation: rewarding an illegal act . 101 8.2.3 Practical and normative consequences for the legal system: endangered coherence of the law ..................................................................................................................... 105 8.2.4 The practical negative consequences for the society: social conflicts ............... 109 8.2.5 The pragmatic positive attitude towards legalisation: inevitable solutions for muddled situations and for promoting integration ...................................................... 111 8.2.6 The normative (and practical) positive stance towards legalisation: humanitarian and legal considerations .............................................................................................. 116 9. Results: The German and French discourses in comparison .......................................... 119 D. Do amnesties increase illegal immigration? ............................................. 133 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 133 2. State of research .............................................................................................................. 136 3. Theory and hypothesis generating .................................................................................. 140 3.1 Aspects leading to a decrease of illegal immigration ............................................... 140 3.2 Aspects leading to an increase in illegal immigration .............................................. 140 3.3 Other factors leading to illegal immigration ............................................................. 142 4. Hypothesis and operationalisation .................................................................................. 146 5. Descriptive results .......................................................................................................... 151 6. Multivariate model ......................................................................................................... 155 7. Results of multivariate models ....................................................................................... 160 8. Sensibility tests ............................................................................................................... 163 9. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 165 E. Conclusion ................................................................................................... 174 F. References .................................................................................................... 176 3 Figures Chapter A ................................................................................................................. Figure 1: Ways into illegality ................................................................................................. 6 Figure 2: Cost-benefit-distribution in immigration politics ................................................. 13 Chapter B ................................................................................................................