2|2012 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 69 ElEctions in WarsaW, nEgotiations in BrussEls Polish ParliamEntary ElEctions and thE PrEsidEncy of thE council of thE EuroPEan union Christian Schmitz / Agnieszka Łada For Germany’s eastern neighbour, Poland, 2011 was a year of challenges and tests. The government in Warsaw had to cope with holding the Presidency of the EU for the first time since joining the Union. This new experience came at a time when the European sovereign debt crisis had suddenly reached unprecedented proportions. Despite this, Poland proposed an ambitious agenda for the period of its EU Presidency, which it would have to implement at Dr. Christian Schmitz the same time as holding its own national elections and the is Resident Represen- tative of the Konrad- ensuing period of forming a government. The end result Adenauer-Stiftung was success for the Polish government: it not only won the office in Poland. elections but also served a positive and professional term as Presidency of the Council. Perhaps both challenges were met so successfully because the Polish officials managed to strictly separate the Presidency from the election turmoil back home. Background Dr. Agnieszka Łada Right from the outset, the main protagonists in Warsaw is a political scientist were in a good position to successfully handle the difficult and Head of the Euro- challenges they faced. The previous four years had been pean Programme of the Institute of Public a relatively stable period for Poland in terms of domestic Affairs in Warsaw. politics. The government of the liberal conservative Civic Platform (Platforma Obywatelska, PO) and the Polish People’s Party (Polskie Stronnictwo Ludowe, PSL), led by Donald Tusk, had, admittedly, shelved many planned reforms, but they had still guided the country successfully through the financial and economic crisis. By the end of 70 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 2|2012 2009, Poland was the only country in the EU that was enjoying any economic growth. Skilful use of money from the EU Structural Funds was one of the key factors behind this success. Another important reason was that the Smolensk disaster on 10 April 2010, in which the President Lech Kaczyński and many representatives of the Polish elite were killed in a plane crash, had not seriously affected the functioning of the Polish state. The country’s stability was also helped by the fact that, in Donald Tusk, Poland had a head of government who, for the first time since 1989, actually had a realistic chance of being re-elected. in april 2011, 7 years after joining the Prior to Poland taking over the Presidency Eu, 63 per cent of those asked in Poland of the EU Council, the government had also felt that integration into the European union offered the country more advan- enjoyed the consistent support of the people tages than disadvantages. for its European policies. In April 2011, 7 years after joining the EU, 63 per cent of those asked in Poland felt that integration into the Euro- pean Union offered the country more advantages than dis- advantages. This figure had remained unchanged since 2004. The number of people who believed that integration into the EU offered more advantages than disadvantages to people as individuals also remained constant (42 per cent). In total, 83 per cent of Poles saw themselves as supporters of European integration, another figure that had remained unchanged over the years.1 Planning for thE PrEsidEncy of thE Eu council The Polish government was, therefore, in good shape to take over the Presidency of the Council of the European Union on 1 June 2011. However, the Polish debut was neither made any easier by the worsening global sovereign debt crisis and the associated discussions about the single currency that were raging when it took over the Presidency, nor by the EU reform process that had been going on since the Treaty of Lisbon had come into force, nor by the uprisings by the people against their regimes in countries south of the EU, nor by the obvious lack of true democratic principles amongst their neighbours to the east. However, the government in Warsaw wanted to show that it could be 1 | CBOS: BS/52/2011, Siedem lat obecności Polski w Unii Europejskiej (Seven years of Poland in the European Union), Warsaw, 05/2011, http://cbos.pl (accessed 17 Jan 2012). 2|2012 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 71 a successful player on the European stage, a country with good ideas for the future of Europe and with the ability to bring new impetus to the EU machine in Brussels. Therefore, to coincide with assu- Poland launched a carefully targeted ming the Presidency, the Poles launched a image campaign to spread a message of optimism and present Poland as a carefully targeted image campaign in Brus- reliable, well-prepared and responsible sels, in the EU Member States and especially member of the Eu. in Germany to spread a message of optimism and present Poland as a reliable, well-prepared and respon- sible member of the EU. The expectations this created were very high. The government’s obvious preparedness and strong commitment to Europe had an impact back home on the parliamentary elections set for October. Normally, when planning who will take over the Presidency of the EU Council, efforts are made to ensure that the Presidency does not clash with elections in the country in question. This was also the case with Poland, but the early elections in 2007 put a spanner in the works. However, it was decided to stick to the timetable, because changing the order in which countries took on the Presidency of the EU Council seemed just as impractical as holding the elections in Poland early. Also the Sejm, the Polish Parliament, would have had to be dissolved, which would have needed the agreement of the ruling coalition and the opposition – and in light of the notoriously destructive attitude of the opposition PiS party, there was no guarantee that they would agree. Polish planning strategists also believed that it would be better if the Presidency of the EU Council was taken over by a experienced government team and not a team that would be completely changed, or, in the event of an election victory by the Civic Platform, a government team that would have at least some new members. For this reason, it was assumed that the elections for the new Sejm would be held on the latest possible date, so that the old cabinet could continue to take responsibility for the Presidency of the EU Council almost until the end of their term. At first glance, the decision by the Polish President Bronisław Komorowski to choose October 9 as the date for the elections could have been an awkward one. If there were to be a change of government in the middle of the Council Presidency, this could well have a negative impact both on the credibility of Poland’s presidency and on its ability 72 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 2|2012 to perform on the EU stage. Having an election campaign during the Presidency of the EU Council also seemed hard to justify, as it would tie up the politicians involved and have a negative effect on the Presidency. It was also clear that the incumbent government would naturally want to use the Council Presidency to present itself in the best possible light to its pro-European electorate. So it was its declared intention to achieve excellent results during its Presidential term, and this would be in its best interests when it came to contesting the elections. Would Poland continue the pro-Euro- For Brussels and the EU member states, pean policies or would the country re- especially Germany, the potential clash of the vert to slowing down integration, which would be the likely outcome if kaczyń- elections with the Council Presidency raised ski was to win the election? another serious question. Would Poland con- tinue the pro-European policies of the Tusk government or would the country revert to slowing down integration, which would be the likely outcome if the opposition PiS party under Jarosław Kaczyński was to win the election? ElEctions and camPaigning On 9 October 2011 around 30.6 million Poles at home and abroad were called upon to vote for 460 members of the Sejm parliament and 100 senators. Four years earlier, on 21 October 2007, the Civic Platform PO under the leadership of Donald Tusk was clear winner over the then ruling party Law and Justice PiS under Jarosław Kaczyński. Since then, the PO (41.1 per cent of the votes) has formed the country’s government in a coalition with the Polish People’s Party PSL (8.91 per cent of the votes). Both parties are members of the European People’s Party. The PiS was the largest opposition party in the Sejm. Poland’s successful economic development during the previous years, the fact that they had come out of the inter- national financial and economic crisis relatively unscathed and the pro-European policies of the Tusk government led many to believe that another election victory for the Civic Platform was on the cards. And yet a few weeks before the elections themselves, there were signs that the ruling PO was starting to become increasingly nervous. Polls were starting to show a steady decline in the PO’s comfortable 2|2012 KAS INTERNATIONAL REPORTS 73 lead over the opposition PiS. Shortly before the elections, one of the polling and market research institutes, Homo Homini, had the PO on 33.1 per cent and the PiS on 28.1 per cent. Even though polls from other polling organisa- tions put the PO in a better position, there still seemed to be an obvious trend that favoured the PiS and that was taking the wind out of the PO’s sails.