PEAK ENERGY, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THE COLLAPSE OF GLOBAL CIVILIZATION _______________________________________________________ The Current Peak Oil Crisis TARIEL MÓRRÍGAN PEAK E NERGY, C LIMATE C HANGE, AND THE COLLAPSE OF G LOBAL C IVILIZATION The Current Peak Oil Crisis TARIEL MÓRRÍGAN Global Climate Change, Human Security & Democracy Orfalea Center for Global & International Studies University of California, Santa Barbara www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject ~ October 2010 Contact the author and editor of this publication at the following address: Tariel Mórrígan Global Climate Change, Human Security & Democracy Orfalea Center for Global & International Studies Department of Global & International Studies University of California, Santa Barbara Social Sciences & Media Studies Building, Room 2006 Mail Code 7068 Santa Barbara, CA 93106-7065 USA http://www.global.ucsb.edu/climateproject/ Suggested Citation: Mórrígan, Tariel (2010). Peak Energy, Climate Change, and the Collapse of Global Civilization: The Current Peak Oil Crisis . Global Climate Change, Human Security & Democracy, Orfalea Center for Global & International Studies, University of California, Santa Barbara. Tariel Mórrígan, October 2010 version 1.3 This publication is protected under the Creative Commons (CC) "Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported" copyright. People are free to share (i.e, to copy, distribute and transmit this work) and to build upon and adapt this work – under the following conditions of attribution, non-commercial use, and share alike: Attribution (BY) : You must attribute the work in the manner specified by the author or licensor (but not in any way that suggests that they endorse you or your use of the work). Non-Commercial (NC) : You may not use this work for commercial purposes. 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Executive Editor, Design Editor: Tariel Mórrígan Cover design by: Tariel Mórrígan Cover photograph by: Dawn M. Armfield (front) tired (2008). An abandoned car in the Arizona desert http://www.flickr.com/photos/girl-inchoate/2396836783/ Cover photograph by: Duane Smith (back) On the Highway of Death (1991). A destroyed Iraqi tank on "Highway of http://www.flickr.com/photos/airborneshodan/4083071774/ Death" in Kuwait with oil well fires and smoke in background. TABLE OF CONTENTS Glossary Preface 1 Acknowledgements 2 KEY POINTS 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 7 PART I PEAK OIL 1. What Is Peak Oil? 15 2. The Importance of Oil 18 Source of Energy and Fuel 18 Feedstock for Materials 19 Food Production and Distribution 19 3. Defining and Measuring Conventional and Non-Conventional Hydrocarbon Reserves 21 4. Oil Data Is Inaccurate 23 Misreporting, Falsifying Data, Uncertainty, and Lack of Standards and Transparency 23 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 25 Information and Reporting Organizations 29 The International Energy Agency (IEA) 29 The US Department of Energy (DoE) 32 Private Industry 36 5. Oil Discoveries 39 6. Energy Return On Investment (EROI) 42 7. Conventional Oil Reserves 44 8. Unconventional Oil and Increasing Production Costs 46 Increasing Oil Production Costs 46 Oil Sands 50 Extra-Heavy Oil 51 Oil Shale 51 Gas-to-Liquids 52 Coal-to-Liquids 53 9. Supply and Demand 54 Oil Production and Demand 56 Global 56 OPEC 60 Saudi Arabia 61 Iraq 61 Undiscovered Oil 63 Oil Production Decline Rates 64 Decline Curve Assumption 65 Oil Prices and Demand Destruction 68 Strategic Petroleum Reserves 69 10. When Will Peak Oil Occur? 71 Peak Oil Production 71 Insufficient Capacity 73 11. Why No Warning? 75 12. Mitigating Peak Oil 78 Mitigating Peak Oil 79 Alternative Energy Sources 80 Biofuels 81 Algae Biofuel 82 13. The Consequences of Peak Oil 87 Systemic Collapse and the Decline of Global Civilization 88 Governance Responses 91 14. Future of Climate Policy and Negotiations 93 PART II HUMAN CARRYING CAPACITY 15. Food 97 16. Arable Land 101 17. Irrigated Land 107 18. Water Resources 109 19. Peak Phosphorus 115 Phosphorus : Its Role in Nature and Agriculture 115 Peak Phosphorus 116 Responses to Peak Phosphorus 118 20. Food Waste 121 21. Human Health 122 22. Mass Extinction and Biodiversity Loss 124 23. Climate Change 128 Impacts of Climate Change 129 Worldwide 135 Africa 137 Asia 139 Australia and New Zealand 143 Coastal Areas 145 Europe 148 Middle East 151 North America 151 Small Island States 153 South America 154 Abrupt Non-Linear Climate Change and Tipping Points 156 24. Peak Oil 167 25. Food Prices 172 26. Peak Energy Resources 175 Peak Coal 176 Peak Gas 180 Peak Uranium 185 27. Peak Energy and Carrying Capacity 189 PART III CONCLUSIONS 28. Solutions 197 Crisis and Opportunity 199 Transitions 200 Adaptation 202 Examples of Governance Responses 205 Looking Forward 208 29. Conclusions 210 Appendix 1: Defining Reserve Estimates 218 Appendix 2: The Uppsala Protocol 219 Appendix 3: Resources 221 References 228 FIGURES Figure 1: Ultimate crude-oil production based upon initial reserves of 1,250 billion barrels 16 Figure 2: A theoretical production curve, describing the various stages of oil production maturity 16 Figure 3: OPEC official proved oil reserves 25 Figure 4: OPEC 11 oil reserves 26 Figure 5: Comparison claimed OPEC 10 crude oil capacity versus actual production in 2008 27 Figure 6: Comparison of IEA OPEC 10 crude oil capacity estimates versus actual production 28 Figure 7: Saudi Arabia crude oil production to 2080 29 Figure 8a: World's liquid fuels supply and possible peak around 2010 by Glen Sweetnam 33 Figure 8b: Oil and gas liquids 2004 scenario and possible peak around 2010 by Steven Chu 34 Figure 9a: Graph showing a possible peak in oil production around 2010 by the CEO of Petrobras 36 Figure 9b: Graph showing a cumulative decline in existing fields over time by the CEO of Petrobras 37 Figure 10: Annual 2P conventional oil discovery, consumption, and production 40 Figure 11: Energy return on investment (EROI) 43 Figure 12: Increasing costs and challenges of extracting unconventional oil resources 47 Figure 13: Long-term oil-supply cost curve 48 Figure 14: Production of oil shale in millions of metric tons from 1880 – 2000 52 Figure 15: World oil production by source in the IEA's WEO 2008 Reference Scenario 57 Figure 16: Future world oil production in the U.S. Joint Forces Command's JOE 2010 58 Figure 17: The expanding group of post-peak oil producing countries 59 Figure 18: Historical production of oil in the USA from 1900 – 2009 62 Figure 19: Petroleum overview of the United States 63 Figure 20a: World oil supply according to the EIA 66 Figure 20b: EIA data for global conventional oil production 67 Figure 21: Unconstrained demand started exceeding oil supply in 2006 68 Figure 22: Average monthly West Texas Intermediate (WTI) spot prices from 1986 – 2010 69 Figure 23: Oil Prices from 1861 – 2007 70 Figure 24: World population over time 99 Figure 25: A comparison of anthropogenic biomes (anthromes) for years 1700 and 2000 104 Figure 26: Distribution of Earth's water 110 Figure 27: Water withdrawal as percent of total available water by country between 1995 – 2025 112 Figure 28: Annual and cumulative phosphorus production predicted by Cordell et al. 117 Figure 29: Annual and cumulative phosphorus production predicted by Ward 118 Figure 30: Historical sources of phosphorus (1800 – 2000) 119 Figure 31: Megafauna species that went extinct through time compared to human population growth 125 Figure 32: Biomass of humans plotted against the estimated biomass of non-human megafauna 126 Figure 33: Recent monthly mean carbon dioxide measured at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii 130 Figure 34: Global average temperature relative to 1800 – 1900 and projected to 2100 131 Figure 35: Mean global temperatures during 1999 – 2008 133 Figure 36: Global warming predictions for 2070 – 2100 versus 1960 – 1990 average temperatures 134 Figure 37: Change in water availability compared with average 1961 – 1990 in percentage 136 Figure 38: The world population density, 2000 137 Figure 39: Population density within and outside of a 10 m LECZ for The Gambia 138 Figure 40: Map of the HKHT with major river basins 141 Figure 41: Map of the HKHT with major river basins 142 Figure 42: Population density within and outside of a 10 m LECZ for Vietnam 144 Figure 43: Sea level change during 1970 – 2010 145 Figure 44: Population density within and outside of a 10 m LECZ for eastern China 146 Figure 45: Population density within and outside of a 10 m LECZ for Japan 147 Figure 46: Population density within and outside of a 10 m LECZ for Great Britian 149 Figure 47: Population density within and outside of a 10 m LECZ for northern Egypt 150 Figure 48: Population density within and outside of a 10