V21, 33 Tuesday, April 26, 2016 WTHR/HPI Poll: A polarized gov race Pence remains sideways with voters with a 49-45% lead, John Gregg ‘a blank slate’ By BRIAN A. HOWEY NASHVILLE, Ind. – Gov. Mike Pence has become one of the most, if not the most, polariz- ing governor in modern times. The WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll shows that Pence will be in a dog fight with Democrat John Gregg, leading him in a general elec- tion head-to-head 49-45% with a mere 5% undecided. It is a virtual mirror im- age of the final 2012 results. The poll by Pub- lic Opinion Strategies (April 18-21, 500 likely voters, with two sets of Gov. Mike Pence introduces Sen. Ted Cruz at the Indiana Republican Spring Din- over samples of Democrats (479) and Republi- ner last week. (HPI Photo by Mark Curry) cans (507), with a 4.3 +/-% error rate) was taken Rupert Boneham polled 3.9% in 2012 while Andy Horn- prior to Indiana Libertarian Party selecting Rex Bell as its ing had 2.1% in 2008. Bell will probably shave at least a nominee on Saturday. In recent elections, the Libertarian Continued on page 3 Gauging ‘The Deal’ By BRIAN A. HOWEY FRANKLIN – In the width and breadth of Indiana political history, through Bobby Kennedy’s whistle stops across our state in 1968, through the Bulen era power struggle between President Ford and The Gipper in the spirit of ’76, after all the Bud- “Leave Tom Brady alone. Enough weisers and bourbon shots were gulleted by Barack Obama and is enough.” Hillary Clinton eight years ago, - Republican presidential we’ve never seen anything quite like “the deal.” candidate Donald Trump, This devil’s pact between Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. campaigning in Rhode John Kasich to “steer resources” Island, on the reinstated out of each other’s way in order to deny Donald Trump a first- suspension of the Patriots ballot nomination in Cleveland QB for ‘deflategate’ wasn’t cut in Indiana, though it Page 2 came over the weekend where Cruz areas where I can spend my resources stumped in Plainfield and Lebanon on most effectively, and the same is true Saturday when talks began, and was for Sen. Cruz. What’s the big deal?” sealed after he rallied in Terre Haute Well, governor, the big deal and Evansville on Sunday. But it will is that you and Ted are trying to cut a play out in vivid fashion here over the huuuuuuge deal against the most epic next week. dealmaker. The New York Times reported Trump immediately framed today that it was “already fraying the deal into his populist complaint, almost to the point of irrelevance on that the system is rigged, the partici- Howey Politics Indiana Monday, only hours after it was an- pants are crooked, something he will WWHowey Media, LLC 405 nounced to great fanfare.” impress when he appears with Bobby Massachusetts Ave., Suite There was a flood of national Knight at the Indiana Fairgrounds 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 calls coming into Howey Politics In- at 6 p.m. Wednesday. “It is sad that diana throughout the day www.howeypolitics.com with pretty much the same question: What will the Brian A. Howey, Publisher impact be? Will Kasich sup- Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington porters gravitate toward Jack E. Howey, Editor Cruz in enough numbers for him to win the primary? Mary Lou Howey, Editor And my answer? Maureen Hayden, Statehouse I have no idea. No one Mark Curry, photography does. We likely won’t know whether this was an 11th- hour desperation shot or Subscriptions a stroke of political genius HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 until sometime late in the HPI Weekly, $350 evening May 3. My initial U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz campaigns at the Johnson Counthy Fair- Ray Volpe, Account Manager gut reaction was this came grounds in Franklin on Monday. (HPI Photo by Mark Curry) 317.602.3620 a week or two too late. The only telltale clue came two grown politicians have to collude email: [email protected] in the Fox News Poll which asked the against one person who has only been Contact HPI “second choice” question. Kasich re- a politician for 10 months in order to [email protected] ceived 27% while Cruz received 24%, try and stop that person from getting Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 with 25% potentially changing their the Republican nomination,” Trump minds. said. In his view, Cruz is in “free fall” Washington: 202.256.5822 The candidates had predict- and Kasich is a slob at the dinner Business Office: 317.602.3620 able responses on Monday. “This is table. about winning the votes of the Hoo- Cruz reacted to that by say- © 2016, Howey Politics sier State, giving Indiana the opportu- ing, “Listen, I don’t doubt that Donald Indiana. All rights reserved. nity to choose, and we’re at a fork in Trump is going to scream and yell and the road. We’re at a fundamental fork curse and insult and probably cry and Photocopying, Internet forward- in the road,” Cruz said in Borden, Ind., whine some as well. That has been ing, faxing or reproducing in Monday morning. “And I’ll tell you, Donald’s pattern.” any form, whole or part, is a here in the state of Indiana, Donald So will it work? violation of federal law without Trump at the top of the ticket, losing Until we see more tracking permission from the publisher. in a landslide, would cost Republicans polls later this week, everything is seats all throughout the state. We’re going to be gut feeling, anecdote and not gonna let that happen.” conjecture. But as a lifelong Hoosier, Sitting in a Philadelphia diner, from someone who lives in both urban Kasich, wolfing a sandwich said, and rural Indiana, here are some “Now, you know the fact is we don’t thoughts: have all of the resources in the world, n Hoosiers are independent but we’re still going. And we have to folk. They don’t like to be told what to husband our resources, and I feel that do. It’s why I have a rusted DNR sign it’s very fair for me to be able to go to declaring “No hunting” pierced by a Page 3 very large round, hanging on my back porch down at the Who will win the Indiana primary? cabin, just as a reminder. I wouldn’t be a bit surprised to Donald Trump has the verbal bombers (and Bobby see a decent number of Republicans voting for Trump, just Knight) and lots of money to spend. Cruz has built a grass- because. So there! roots organization, has made 10 stops in the past three n The Mitch Daniels wing days, most coming in the doughnut of the party found a reasonable op- counties where he trailed Trump by tion in Kasich because poll after poll 5%. Cruz is an excellent retail politi- showed him doing the best against cian and gives great speeches. Hillary next fall. The only reason they Trump is expected to win five would vote for Cruz now is to deny states tonight in the mid-Atlantic, and Trump that first ballot victory, poten- then there is just a week before Hoo- tially sending the convention toward siers vote. As MSNBC’s Joe Scarbor- a multi-ballot dark horse. ough said this morning, “Little Indiana n Speaking of Daniels, is the center of the universe!” Cruz who is the ultimate poker player, we U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz poses for photos in Franklin faces a critical test Wednesday and gave him a chance to give a “General on Monday, one of four Indiana stops after “the Thursday in resetting the narrative. Sherman” when the convention dark deal” was announced with Sen. John Kasich. Speaking at the Johnson County horse chatter picked up. Instead he (HPI Photo by Mark Curry) Fairgrounds on Monday, Cruz defined gave us a hybrid with Sherman that “politics” as “‘poli’ means many. And included Sgt. Schultz from “Hogan’s Heroes,” whose famed ‘ticks’ are blood sucking parasites, which is a fairly accu- line is “I. Know. Noth-ing!” Which leads me to believe that rate description of Washington, D.C.’” The crowd of about Our Man Mitch actually knows quite a bit. Remember, as 1,200 roared with laughter. George Will put it, Our Man has the greatest brain mass Perhaps, just maybe, this deal could produce a ratio to body weight of anyone in politics. huuuuuuuge upset. v Gregg leads Pence among independent voters Pence-Gregg, from page 1 by 4%. Among moderate voters, Pence is sideways at 28%/58%. couple of percentage points away from Pence. Gregg leads in only two DMAs in the state, India- Mining down below the top lines, Pence is upside napolis 49-47%, and the west (which includes The Region) down with Hoosier voters. His approval stands at 44% 47-43%. Pence leads in the Fort Wayne market 62-32%. with 41% disapproving, terrible numbers for an incumbent Of the undecided voters, Pence’s fav/unfavs stand governor. With female voters, Pence trails Gregg 52-41%, at 9/21%. “They are not going to go his way,” Ulm said. and independent women voters 54-40, following a trend The right track/wrong track numbers for Indi- from September 2012 when he led Gregg among women ana are also troubling for Pence, standing at 44% right, by 13% in a Howey DePauw Poll, before losing the gen- 45% wrong track, including 29% of Republicans.