Spring/Summer 2006 Vol. 5, No. 2 Newsletter of the European Politics & Society Section of the American Political Science Association EPS Forum: Path Dependence, Feedback Effects, and Sources of Change in the Welfare State The comparative study of welfare states path stability to path departure and finally to represents one of the most dynamic research path switching. Ellen Immergut follows with an areas in the study of Europe. But it also one of exploration of the dynamic relationships be- the key areas in which members of the Euro- tween endogenous and exogenous sources of pean Politics and Society Section have come to institutional change, provocatively suggesting shape debates far beyond their primary empiri- that welfare-state scholars need to return to cal domain. Through its close attention to the studying the effects of politics on policies, as study of institutions, the sources of policy varia- well as the converse. Julia Lynch focuses in her tions, and institutional effects on economic per- contribution on the question of to what extent formance, work on the European welfare state “constituency feedback” effects – i.e., narrow has come to occupy a central place in many Po- self-interests of voters as beneficiaries – drives litical Science debates. welfare state policy reform. Finally, Kimberly In this issue, we asked four leading schol- Morgan points to further avenues for research ars of the welfare state to examine critically a into how the design of social programs gener- specific set of concepts that have framed much ates different types of feedback effects, as well of the recent debate on the welfare state, includ- as the gendered political consequences of wel- ing policy feedback, path dependence, and the fare states. Taken together, these authors’ ex- exogenous or endogenous sources of cellent contributions mark yet another important change. In his contribution Bernhard Ebbing- step toward a fuller understanding of the haus explores three concepts reflecting varied sources of both continuity and change in the degrees of institutional change, moving from modern welfare state. —The Editors From Path Dependence to Path Departure in Welfare Reform Analysis By Bernhard Ebbinghaus Rarely are actors in situations in which they can ignore the past and decide de novo; In this Issue their decisions are bound by past and current institutions. In welfare state research, the con- EPS Forum: Path Dependence, Feedback Effects, cept of path dependence has gained much and Sources of Change in the Welfare State popularity in explaining current reform proc- featuring essays by Bernhard Ebbinghaus, Ellen esses. However, the path dependence concept Immergut, Julia Lynch and Kimberly J. Morgan 1 borrowed from economics is rather narrow, even deterministic (cf. critique in Ebbinghaus 2005). It Letter from the Chairs by Mark Franklin and Paulette Kurzer 2 assumes the lasting impact of chance events that occur at the beginning, but not later in the The Italian General Elections of 2006 process (Pierson 2004), leading necessarily to By Piero Ignazi 13 claims of institutional inflexibility. But such “lock- in” of a path seems to be a rather unrealistic as- APSA 2005 Conference Program of EPS and sumption since it rules out even gradual adapta- Related Group Panels 16 tions to environmental changes that may be APSA/EPS News and Announcements 22 ...cont. on page 3 EPS Newsletter 1 Spring/Summer 2006 Letter from the Chairs Dear Colleagues: listing of all panels sponsored by the European This issue of the EPS Newsletter fea- Politics and Society Section, and by related tures an exciting forum on policy feedback and country groups as well as the European Consor- welfare reform with a focus on the state of af- tium for Political Research. In addition to these fairs in Europe. The contributions are by a stel- panels, please make a note of our annual busi- lar group of scholars, namely Bernhard Ebbing- ness meeting, which is scheduled for Friday at haus, Ellen Immergut, Julia Lynch, and Kimberly 6:00 p.m. At the meeting we will announce the J. Morgan. In addition, Piero Ignazi is giving us winners of the Best 2005 Conference Paper a detailed and in-depth analysis of the Italian Prize, Best Book Prize, and the Ernst Haas Dis- election. We thank our esteemed group of edi- sertation Prize. At the last business meeting, we tors at Temple University – Mark Pollack, Rich- decided to nominate Chris Anderson (Cornell ard Deeg, and Orfeo Fioretos – for organizing University) Division Chair and the Steering this issue. Committee approached Paulette Kurzer to be We are expecting another great confer- Program Chair for the 2007 APSA Conference. ence in Philadelphia. We have 17 EPS- Immediately after the business meeting, more- sponsored panels scheduled and we urge you over, the EPS Section will host a lavish recep- to attend them as our future panel tion (open bar) co-sponsored by Blackwell Pub- allocations depend on panel attendance. The lishers and ECPR. EPS section has the unfortunate record of re- We are looking forward to seeing you in jecting more panels and paper proposals than Philadelphia! just about any other APSA section. Partly, this is due to the fact that we often fail to attend our Best wishes to all, own panels. As you may know, the allocation of Paulette and Mark panels to each of APSA’s organized interest section is determined in large part by atten- Paulette Kurzer, Professor of Political Science, dance at panels. Needless to say that it is in University of Arizona our collective interest to go to panels sponsored Email: [email protected] by EPS and aim to fill up those meeting rooms, so that European Politics and Society can con- Mark Franklin, Reitemeyer Professor of Interna- tinue to be well represented at future Annual tional Politics, Trinity College, Connecticut Meetings! Email: [email protected] In this issue, you will also find a detailed 2006 Program Chairs Judith Goldstein Meeting will feature compelling discussions of and Rick Valelly have invited participants to this theme as well as current issues in political address the fundamental question of whether science and the public sphere. and how the concept of power informs political science. The 2006 APSA Annual Meeting will A preliminary listing of EPS and related convene in Philadelphia, PA on August 31 - group panels can be found in this issue. For the Sept 3, 2006. The birthplace of our nation is an full program and additional information about apt setting to discuss this 2006 theme, "Power registration, hotels and more, visit the APSA Reconsidered." Hosted by the Philadelphia website at: http://www.apsanet.org. Marriott, the Loews Philadelphia and the Penn- sylvania Convention Center, the 2006 Annual EPS Newsletter 2 Spring/Summer 2006 Bernhard Ebbinghaus ...continued from page 1 necessary for an institution’s long-term survival. gradual adaptation. Here, the most relevant idea Indeed, the economic path dependence model is that earlier decisions narrow the choice set is a closed system based on an internal feed- but do not determine the next adaptive step. back mechanism of increasing returns. Accord- Path departure lies between locked-in inertia, ing to the deterministic model, an end to such when nothing effectively changes the basic “lock-in” would only be possible through exoge- foundation, and radical system change, when nous intervening factors. everything is built de novo. Yet between these By contrast, in institutionalist studies, the extremes, path departure also entails various concept of path dependence has often been forms and often occurs through a variety of si- used in a broader, non-deterministic sense to multaneous processes (cf. Pierson 2004; Thelen refer to the long-term developmental pathway of 2003): (i) long-term gradual changes that sum complex institutional arrangements shaped by up over time to important reorientations; (ii) a and then further adapted by collective actors. functional transformation through which the The emphasis here is on the timing and se- same institution serves a different purpose than quence of events. Three features stand out in initially intended; (iii) institutional layering occurs historical analyses of pathways. First, an institu- through the addition of (new) institutional ar- tion emerges at a critical juncture at which col- rangements with divergent orientation. lective actors establish new rules. The selection The third and least likely possibility is of a pathway is the result of political conflicts radical transformation – path switching. As in and power relations during a window of opportu- the case of the emergence of institutions, here nity for action. A second element is the subse- we would examine the critical juncture at which quent process of institutionalization through a change in the opportunity structure led to a positive feedback that allows for the societal ac- freeing-up of societal resources and allowed a ceptance of a newly established institution, pro- switch of paths, not least through the actions of viding legitimacy. The third feature is a wider political entrepreneurs. In such cases, it be- understanding of path dependence in the sense comes necessary to explain why the self- of the sequence of contingent decisions. Earlier reinforcing processes have ended and how a decisions, once institutionalized, “structure the new institution could be established in its stead. alternatives” of later ones. Three scenarios of In addition, we need a theoretical underpinning institutional transformation can be analytically and empirical tests of the social mechanisms distinguished and applied to welfare reform. that lead to self-reinforcement or may even lead First, if an institution is severely en- to deinstitutionalization (cf. Ebbinghaus 2005). trenched, we can expect path stability through To take a well-known example from wel- marginal adaptation to changing environmental fare research: Esping-Andersen (1990) as- conditions to be the most likely scenario.