Ecosystem Goods and Services in Production Landscapes in South-Eastern Australia By Himlal Baral MA, MSc Submitted in total fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy October 2013 Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science Melbourne School of Land and Environment The University of Melbourne ABSTRACT Ecosystem goods and services (EGS), the benefits that humans obtain from ecosystems, are vital for human well-being. As human populations increase so do demands for almost all EGS. Managing changing landscapes for multiple EGS is therefore a key challenge for resource planners and decision makers. However, in many cases the supply of different types of goods and services can conflict. For example, the enhancement of provisioning services can lead to declines in regulating and cultural services, but there are few tools available for analysing these trade-offs in a spatially-explicit way. This thesis developed approaches and tools for spatially explicit measurement and management of multiple EGS provided by production landscapes. These were used to assess the impacts of land-use change and to provide a basis for managing these trade-offs using case studies in two contrasting production landscapes in south-eastern Australia. Both landscapes have been subject to extensive clearing of native vegetation, which is now present in remnant patches. One study landscape had a concentration of commercially-valuable hardwood and softwood plantations, and the other was dominated by land traditionally focused on agricultural production that is currently being re- configured to provide for more sustainable farming practices and to increase provision of multiple ecosystem services. The study involved five components: (i) development of a novel, qualitative approach for rapid assessment of EGS in changing landscapes that was used to assess observed and potential changes in land use and land cover and their impact on the production of different EGS (Chapter 2); (ii) development and testing of an approach for assessing multiple EGS across space and time using a case study of six key EGS in a sub-catchment in Lower Glenelg Basin, south-western Victoria that demonstrated landscape-scale trade-offs between provisioning and many regulating services (Chapter 3); (iii) an economic valuation of EGS using market and non-market techniques to produce spatial economic value maps (Chapter 4); (iv) spatial assessment of the biodiversity values that underpin provision of many ecosystem services utilising a variety of readily available data and tools (Chapter 5); and (v) assessment of trade-offs and synergies among multiple EGS under current land use and realistic future land-use scenarios (Chapter 6). Results indicate that EGS can be assessed and mapped in a variety of ways depending on the availability of data, time, and funding as well as level of detail and accuracy required. A qualitative assessment can be useful for an initial investigation (Chapter 2) while quantitative and monetary assessments may be required for detailed landscape-scale planning (Chapters 3, 4). In addition, the provision of EGS by production landscapes can vary considerably depending on land use and land cover, and management choices. The study demonstrates that landscapes dedicated mostly to i agricultural production have limited capacity to produce the range of ecosystem services required for human health and well-being, while landscapes with a mosaic of land uses can produce a wide range of services, although these are often subject to trade-offs between multiple EGS (Chapters 2, 3). Furthermore, the study demonstrated that spatial assessment and mapping of biodiversity value plays a vital role in identifying key areas for conservation and establishing conservation priorities to allocate limited resources (Chapter 5). There is potential for an improved balance of the multiple EGS required for human health and well-being at the landscape scale, although the economic incentive to adopt more sustainable land use practices that produce a wide range of services are compromised due to the lack of economic valuation of public ecosystem services (Chapter 6). High hopes have been placed by researchers on spatial assessment, mapping and economic valuations of ecosystem goods and services to influence policy makers for coping with the accelerating degradation of natural capital. The approaches and tools used in this thesis can potentially enhance our collective choices regarding the management of landscapes for multiple values and can help policy makers and land managers to enhance the total benefits that landscapes provide to societies through the provision of an optimal mix of goods and services. ii DECLARATION This is to certify that: i. The thesis comprises only my original work. ii. Due acknowledgement has been made in the text to all other material used. iii. The thesis is less than 100,000 words in length, exclusive of tables, illustrations, bibliography, and appendices. ... ... ... ... ... ... Himlal Baral 1 October 2013 iii PREFACE This PhD thesis consists of seven chapters four of which have been published. I conducted the majority of research work for these publications while the co-authors contributed in the form of overall supervision from site selection, stakeholder consultation, resource supply and editorial support on manuscript writing. The citations for the published chapters and those in review are as follows: Chapter 2 Baral, H., Keenan, R.J., Stork, N.E., Kasel, S., 2013. Measuring and managing ecosystem goods and services in changing landscapes: a south-east Australian perspective. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management (in press) http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2013.824872 Chapter 3 Baral, H., Keenan, R.J., Fox, J.C., Stork, N.E., Kasel, S., 2013. Spatial assessment of ecosystem goods and services in complex production landscapes: A case study from south-eastern Australia. Ecological Complexity 13, 35–45. Chapter 4 Baral, H., Kasel, S., Keenan, R. J., Fox, J., Stork, N., 2009. GIS-based classification, mapping and valuation of ecosystem services in production landscapes: A case study of the Green Triangle region of south-eastern Australia. In: Thistlethwaite, R., Lamb, D., Haines, R. (Eds.), Forestry: a Climate of Change. Caloundra, pp. 64–71. Chapter 5 Baral, H., Keenan, R.J., Sharma, S.K., Stork, N.E., Kasel, S., (in press). Spatial assessment and mapping of biodiversity and conservation priorities in a heavily modified and fragmented production landscape in north-central Victoria, Australia. Ecological Indicators http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2013.09.022 Chapter 6 Baral, H., Keenan, R.J., Sharma, S.K., Stork, N.E., Kasel, S., (to be submitted). Economic evaluation of landscape management scenarios in north-central Victoria, Australia. Land Use Policy Bibliographic style of citations and reference lists within each chapter follow those set by the publications in which each chapter was published or submitted for publication. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This PhD was supported by a University of Melbourne Research Scholarship and a scholarship from The Cooperative Research Centre for Forestry. I would like to express my profound gratitude to my principal supervisor Dr. Sabine Kasel, and co- supervisor Prof. Rodney J. Keenan for their insights and substantial comments for shaping this work to completion. I am indebted to them for the generous allocation of time to read my numerous drafts and constant encouragement. I would like to thank too my other co-supervisors Prof. Nigel E. Stork, Dr. Sunil K. Sharma and Dr. Julian C. Fox for their valuable suggestions and guidance in this study. Thanks are also due to: • CRC for Forestry staff and officials especially Prof. Peter Kanowski and Prof. Brad Potts • Department of Sustainability and Environment, the South East Resource Information Centre and numerous forestry companies for supplying spatial and attribute data • Kilter Pty Ltd for data and support especially Malory Weston and David Heislers • Glenelg Hopkins and North Central Catchment Management Authority for supplying data • CSIRO and its officials for providing CaBALA forest growth model with associated parameter sets and particularly Dr. Michael Battaglia and Ms Jody Bruce • Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency for the CFI reforestation modelling tool • Private Forestry Tasmania for the Farm Forestry Toolbox and Adrian Goodwin for support • All academic and administrative staff in the Department of Forest and Ecosystem Science for their constant support • Fellow students from the Burnley Campus of the University of Melbourne for their friendship which has been good support during my study • My friends and colleagues studying in Australia and overseas for providing comments and sharing their knowledge and experience Above all, I am really indebted to my dearest wife Biddya, son Avinab and daughter Alaka for patiently sharing all my pressure during the course of study and also deeply thankful to my family in Nepal for their love, care and moral support for pursuing higher study. v TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract.................................................................................................................................................................... i Declaration ............................................................................................................................................................ iii Preface ..................................................................................................................................................................