The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2000 by: Mitchell A. Seligson Department of Political Science University of Pittsburgh Pittsburgh, PA 15260 (412) 648-7268 [email protected] Prepared for U.S. Agency for International Development La Paz, Bolivia Version: September 3, 2005 The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2000 1 Contents Contents Introduction and Executive Summary..................................... 10 Chapter I. Methodology and Sample Characteristics . 29 Introduction ................................................... 29 Sample Design................................................. 29 Sample Weights................................................ 35 Sample Distribution ............................................. 36 Sample Characteristics .......................................... 38 Comparisons with Census Data .............................. 38 Key Demographic Characteristics . 40 Key Socio-Economic Characteristics . 43 Ethnicity................................................. 46 Employment ............................................. 51 Analysis Plan .................................................. 51 Chapter II. Support for Democracy ...................................... 53 Conclusions ................................................... 80 Chapter III. System Support and Tolerance . 81 System Support: 1998-2000 ...................................... 81 Tolerance: 1998-2000 ........................................... 86 System Support and Tolerance .................................... 92 Empirical Relationship Between Tolerance and System Support in Bolivia .................................................. 94 Conclusions ................................................... 97 Chapter IV. Corruption and System Support . 98 Why the Interest in Corruption? .................................... 98 Corruption as Economic Evil ...................................... 99 Corruption as Political Good ................................ 101 Corruption as Political Evil.................................. 103 Correcting for Limitations of Prior Work . 106 Prior Efforts at Measuring Corruption . 106 The Missing Evidence for the Corruption/Legitimacy Linkage . 109 Testing the Impact of Corruption on Legitimacy . 110 Variable Measurement .................................... 112 Findings................................................ 115 Bolivia 2000: Levels and Location of Corruption . 123 Predictors of Corruption in Bolivia ................................. 134 Demographic Predictors of Corruption . 136 Corruption and Belief in Democracy . 143 Conclusions .................................................. 146 The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2000 2 Contents Chapter V. Ethnicity and Democracy.................................... 148 An Estimate of Ethnic Classification in Bolivia . 148 Demographic and Socioeconomic Characteristics of Ethnic Groups . 153 Ethnicity and System Support .................................... 159 Ethnicity and Support for Democracy . 162 Possible Explanations ..................................... 163 Conclusions .................................................. 164 Chapter VI. Opposition to Anti-Democratic Measures . 165 Support for Coups ............................................. 165 Support for Civil Disobedience.................................... 173 Conclusions .................................................. 176 Chapter VII. The Rule of Law and Democracy . 177 Respect for Legal Rights ........................................ 177 Feelings of Security ............................................ 179 Predictors of Support for the Rule of Law . 184 Knowledge of the New Criminal Code .............................. 185 Opinion of the New Legal Code................................... 193 Evaluation of the Police: Comparisons 1998-2000 . 197 Conclusions .................................................. 204 Chapter VIII. Local Government ....................................... 205 Level of Participation ........................................... 205 Demand-Making ......................................... 207 Participation in the Budgets and the Municipal Annual Operating Plan (POA) ................................................. 208 Lodging Complaints with the Vigilance Committee . 210 Satisfaction with Local Government . 211 Responsiveness ......................................... 213 The USAID Democratic Development and Citizen Participation Project (DDPC) ...................................................... 218 Participation in Municipal Meetings: DDPC vs. the Nation . 219 Demand-Making on Municipal Government . 222 Complaints to the Vigilance Committee . 224 Participation in Planning Meetings . 226 Satisfaction with Services .................................. 227 Treatment by Municipal Government . 229 Solving Community Problems ............................... 230 More Responsibility and More Funding . 231 Willingness to Pay More Taxes.............................. 232 Responsiveness of the Municipality . 233 Evaluation of the Uninominal Deputy System . 234 Conclusions .................................................. 236 The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2000 3 Contents Chapter IX. Gender and Democracy .................................... 237 Perception of Discrimination Against Women . 237 Empirical Evidence of Discrimination . 246 Behavioral Implications of the Gender Gap . 252 Voting Behavior.......................................... 252 Participation in Civil Society ................................ 258 Conclusions .................................................. 261 Appendix: Questionnaire Used in 2000: Spanish Version . 262 The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2000 4 Contents List of Figures Figure I.1 Map of Bolivia: Distribution of Sample by Department . 37 Figure I.2 Income and Residence....................................... 45 Figure I.3 Indicators of Wealth: 1998 vs. 2000 . 46 Figure I.4 Ethnic Self-Identification: 1998 vs. 2000 . 47 Figure I.5 Language(s) Spoken While Growing Up . 48 Figure I.6 Dress and Gender ........................................... 49 Figure I.7 Dress and Wealth ........................................... 50 Figure I.8 Dress and Education ......................................... 50 Figure II.1 Preference for Democracy: Bolivia in Comparative Perspective ................................. 54 Figure II.2 Preference for Democracy: Bolivia, 2000 . 57 Figure II.3 Preference for Democracy by Department . 58 Figure II.4 Preference for Democracy: by Urbanization . 60 Figure II.5 Distribution of Sample by Population Size . 61 Figure II.6 Distribution of Sample by Ethnic Self-Identification . 62 Figure II.7 Preference for Democracy and Age . 66 Figure II.8 Preference for Democracy by Income . 67 Figure II.9 Impact of Attendance at Municipal Meetings and Preference for Democracy .................................... 68 Figure II.10 Preference for Democracy and Perception of Government Anti-Corruption Efforts ........................................... 69 Figure II.11 Preference for Authoritarianism and Evaluation of the Banzer Government . 70 Figure II.12 Trust in the Public Defenders and Preference for Authoritarianism . 71 Figure II.13 Preference for Democracy and Support for Coup in April 2000..................................... 72 Figure II.14 Preference for Democracy and Support for Organizations to Bring Back the Military . 74 Figure II.15 Preference for Strong-Fisted Government . 75 Figure II.16 Preference for Democracy and Preference for Participation ....................................... 76 Figure II.17 Preference for Democracy and Approval of Legal Demonstration................................... 77 Figure II.18 Do Police Need a Warrant When Serious Criminal Activity Is Suspected? . 78 Figure II.19 Preference for Democracy and Need for Warrant for Suspected Criminal Activity . 79 Figure II.20 Is it Preferable to Limit Liberties to Have Order or to Have Full Liberty at the Cost of Some Disorder? . 80 Figure III.1 System Support, Core Items: 1998 vs. 2000 . 84 Figure III.2 System Support in Comparative Perspective . 85 Figure III.3 System Support, by Department: 1998 vs. 2000 . 86 Figure III.4 Political Tolerance in Bolivia: 1998-2000 . 89 The Political Culture of Democracy in Bolivia: 2000 5 Contents Figure III.5 Political Tolerance: Bolivia in Comparative Perspective . 90 Figure III.6 Tolerance by Department: 1998 vs. 2000 . 91 Figure III.7 Attitudes Favoring Stable Democracy: Bolivia in Comparative Perspective ................................. 97 Figure IV.1 International Corruption Rank and Corruption Victimization . 114 Figure IV.2 Corruption in Bolivia: 1998 vs. 2000 . 124 Figure IV.3 Police Unfairly Accuse Respondent of Violation: Confidence Intervals by Department . 127 Figure IV.4 Police Ask for Bribe: Confidence Intervals by Department . 128 Figure IV.5 Saw Bribe Being Paid to Police: Confident Intervals by Department ................................ 129 Figure IV.6 Saw Bribe Being Paid to Public Employee: Confidence Intervals by Department . 130 Figure IV.7 Public Employee Solicited Bribe: Confidence Intervals by Department . 131 Figure IV.8 Bribe Solicited in Municipality: Confidence Intervals by Department . 132 Figure IV.9 Bribery at Work: Confidence Intervals by Department . 133 Figure IV.10 Know Someone Who Has Paid Bribe in Courts: Confidence Intervals by Department . 134 Figure IV.11 Corruption Victimization and Urbanization . 137 Figure IV.12 Corruption Victimization by