ELECTION VIOLENCE IN KENYA: A CASE STUDY OF NAKURU 1992-2008. OSMAN OMAR MOHAMED REG. NO. C50/NKU/PT/24555/2010 A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS OF KENYATTA UNIVERSITY. JULY 2015 ii DECLARATION This thesis is my original work and has not been submitted for a degree in any other University. ____________________________Signature Date______________________________ Osman Omar Mohamed Department of History, Archaeology and Political Studies This thesis has been submitted for examination with our knowledge as university supervisors ___________________________Signature Date_______________________________ Dr. Felistus K. Kinyanjui Department of History, Archaeology and Politics Studies __________________________Signature Date_______________________________ Dr. Lazarus K. Ngari Department of History, Archaeology and Political Studies iii DEDICATION This thesis is dedicated to my beloved wife Fatuma Abdullahi Dima and daughters Sophia, Fatihiya, Nuzla, Lutfia, Tamima and son Kamaludin Osman who have been encouraging me to fight on in order to realize my success. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENT I appreciate and acknowledge all efforts and contributions rendered to me by the Department of History, Archaeology and Political Studies of Kenyatta University. My sincere appreciation to the Department’s chairman and the secretary Madam Carol for their prompt attention and response in clearance of my line of advance. Special appreciation to my supervisors, Dr. F. K. Kinyanjui and Dr. L. K. Ngari for their continued support, re-reading of my earlier drafts, guidance and direction in the realization of this final product. I also owe special thanks to staff in various libraries for their assistance. Special thanks go to the entire staff of Kenyatta University Nakuru campus for their tireless efforts in ensuring I succeeded in my dream of realizing this thesis. Special tribute to Mr. Otieno-the campus administrator for his honest and efficient service in ensuring the smooth running of the entire course. I wish to convey my sincere gratitude to all my colleagues in the Peace and Conflict Management programme with whom we discussed and shared ideas. My heartfelt appreciation goes to Mr. Geoffery Kimaru Korir who was my lead research assistant and tour guide as he was well versed with the locality of my research sites. May I, also recognize the expert advice from my Colleagues at Communications Authority of Kenya, Information Technology Department especially Mr. Francis Sitati who made sure that technical hitches with documentation is easily contained. May I register my earnest appreciation to my entire family who have understood and supported my work directly or indirectly. I would appreciate their efforts by telling them, ‘Galatomaa-Horaa- Bulla’. v TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION…………………………………………………………………………....ii DEDICATION……………………………………………………………………….....…..iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT………………………………………………………………….iv TABLE OF CONTENTS…………………………………………………… ………………v ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS …………………………………………………..ix TABLES……………………..……………………………………………………… ..……xi DEFINITION OF TERMS………………………………………………………………..xiii ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………….xv CHAPTER ONE 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background of the Study…………………………………………………….1 1.2 Statement of the Problem……………………………………………………6 1.3 Objectives of the Study……...……………………………………………….7 1.4 Research Questions………………….……………………………………….7 1.5 Assumptions of the Study……………………………………………………7 1.6 Justification and Significance ………………………………………………..8 1.7 Scope and Limitations ………………………………………………………..9 CHAPTER TWO 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW, THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK 2.1 Introduction ………………………………………………………………….10 2.2 Review of Related Literature ………………………………………………..10 2.3 Theoretical Framework………….......……………………………………….27 2.4 Conceptual Framework…….……………………………………..………….35 vi CHAPTER THREE 3.0 METHODOLOGY 3.1 Research Design………………………………………………………………36 3.2 Location of the Study…………………………………………………………36 3.3 Study Population…...………………………………… ……………………..37 3.4 Sampling Techniques and Sample size……………………………………...37 3.5 Research Instruments ………………………………………………………. 37 3.6 Pilot Study………….………………………………………………………..38 3.7 Validity and Reliability…….………………………………………………..38 3.8 Data Collection…….………………………………………………………...39 3.9 Data Analysis………………………………………………………………..39 3.10 Data Management and Ethical Considerations…….………………………..40 CHAPTER FOUR 4.0 AN ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AND TRENDS IN ELECTION VIOLENCE 1992- 2002 4.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………..41 4.2.1 Response Rate ………………………………………………………...……..41 4.3 Election Violence in 1992………….………………………………………..42 4.4 Election violence in 1997…………..………………………………………..48 4.5 Election Violence in 2002………….………………………………………..52 4.6 Political Parties and Political Processes in Kenya….……………………….57 4.7 Political Development and Electoral Reforms in Kenya (1992-2002)……...60 4.8 The Common Factors and Differences in the Elections……………...……..63 4.9 Conclusion..………………….………………………………………………65 vii CHAPTER FIVE 5.0 THE KENYAN CRISIS: POST ELECTION VIOLENCE 2007/2008 5.1 Introduction…………………………………………………………………..66 5.2 Causes and Patterns of Violence………….………………………………....66 5.2.1 Ethnicity……………………………………………………………………...66 5.2.2 Land and Boundary Disputes ..……………………………………………...69 5.2.3 Competition for Access to Scarce Vital Resources.………………………....70 5.2.6 Proliferation of Firearms………….……………...………………………….75 5.2.7 Historical Injustices………………………………………………………….77 5.2.11 “Stolen Election”……………………………………………………………87 5.2.12 The Media…………..……………………………………………………….91 5.3 Political Parties………………..…………………………………………….94 5.4 Mitigating future electoral violence…………………………………………96 5.7 Youth and Vigilante Groups………………………………………………100 5.8 Conclusion …………..………………………………………...…………..107 CHAPTER SIX 6.0 SUMMARY, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS…………………..109 6.1 Recommendations….……….……………………………………………..113 6.1.1 Incentives and dividends…………...……………………………………...113 6.1.2 Economic Reforms………………………………………………………....114 6.1.3 Accountability and Cooperation through Participation……………………116 6.1.4 Elections and Conflict Prevention…………………….……………………118 6.1.5 Voice, Education and the Media…………..……………………………….120 viii 6.1.6 Nationhood, National cohesion and Integration……………………….……121 6.1.7 Land, historical injustices and ethnicity………………...………………….122 6.2 Further Research……………………………………………………………123 REFERENCES …………………………… ………………………………………….…... 124 APPENDICES A1: Geographical Map of Kenya ………………………………………………135 A2: Nakuru Municipality………...……………………………………………..136 A3: Budget for the Study…………………………………………………… …137 A4: Research Instruments (Letter to Respondents)…..………………………...138 A5: List of Focus Group Discussion Team…………….….………………..…..139 A6: Questionnaires ……………...........................................................................140 A7: Interview Schedule for Administrators, Youth, Women and Business owners Within Nakuru Municipality………………………..146 A8: Nakuru Town Map for Langa langa, Kaptembwa, Ponda Mali and CBD…148 A9: Kenya, Land Inequity ……...…...………………………………………….149 A10 Research Proposal Approval.………………….……………………………150 A11 Research Approval…………………………………….……………………151 A12 NACOSTI Research Permit.………..………………………………………152 ix LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS BBC - British Broadcasting Corporation CBD – Central Business District CIPEV - Commission Investigating Post Election Violence DP - Democratic Party ECK - Electoral Commission of Kenya EU - European Union HRW - Human Rights Watch ICC - International Criminal Court IDPs - Internally Displaced Persons IEBC - Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission IFES - International Foundation for Election System IHL – International Humanitarian law IPPG - Inter-Party Parliamentary Group KADU - Kenya African Democratic Union KAMATUSA - Kalenjin, Maasai, Turkana, Samburu KANU - Kenya African National Union KBC - Kenya Broadcasting Corporation KEDOF - Kenya Elections Domestic Observation Forum KNBS - Kenya National Bureau of Statistics KNHRC - Kenya National Human Rights Commission x KPC - Kenya Population Census MoU - Memorandum of Understanding NARC - National Rainbow Coalition NCEC - National Convention Executive Council NCPC - National Convention Planning Committee NDDP - Nakuru District Development Plan NGO - Non-Governmental Organization ODM - Orange Democratic Movement OHCHR - Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights OSIEA - Open Society Initiative for Eastern Africa PEV - Post Election Violence PNU - Party of National Unity PPO - Provincial Police Officer SRIC – Security Research and Information Centre UNHCR - United Nations High Commission for Refugees USA – United States of America WWII - World War Two xi TABLES Table 1.4: Response Rate Table 2.4: Gender Distribution Table 3.4: Violence experienced by locals Table 1.5: Triggers of violence in Nakuru Municipality Table 2.5: Types of violence Table 3.5: Violence Types Distribution Table 4.5: Mitigating future electoral violence xii GRAPHS/FIGURES Graph 1.4 Violence experienced by locals Graph 1.5 Triggers of violence in Nakuru Municipality Graph 2.5 Causes of election Violence Distribution Graph 3.5 Types of violence Graph 4.5 Presidential popularity by province (2007/2008) Graph 5.5 Mitigating future electoral violence xiii OPERATIONAL DEFINITION OF TERMS arms – Weapons used by armed groups during election violence in Nakuru Town conflict – This refers to a serious disagreement between two communities or groups. For example, the people in Nakuru