MA in Conflict Studies and Human Rights Utrecht University From a Policy of Non-Interference to Proactive Engagement How the Securitisation of Oil Supply Chains Has Challenged China’s Non- Intervention Principle in the Cases of Sudan and South Sudan Anton Witchell-Chibber 6802214 Utrecht University 17 August 2020 A Thesis submitted to the Board of Examiners in partial fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Arts in Conflict Studies & Human Rights Supervisor: Dr. Lauren Gould Date of submission: 17 August 2020 Programme trajectory: Research & Thesis Writing (30 ECTS) Word count: 26,995 Abstract For half a century, the ‘Five Principles of Coexistence’, which emphasise respect for territorial sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs of other nations, were treated as customary in the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) foreign policy. However, in recent years, China has engaged in actions inconsistent with its non-intervention standard. Such a shift is well observed in the PRC’s relationships with Sudan and South Sudan. Since 1989, Chinese National Oil Companies (NOCs) have played a pivotal role in developing the region’s oil infrastructure and refining capabilities. As China’s relations have developed – through the oil industry, trade, security, diplomatic cooperation, and infrastructure projects – the boundaries of Beijing’s national commitment to non-intervention has strained. Focusing on China’s oil interests in the region, this paper aims to understand how and why Chinese foreign policy has shifted from non-interference to pro-intervention in the case studies of Sudan and South Sudan using the analytical frameworks of securitisation theory and fragmented authoritarianism. Through document analysis, evidence was collated to answer the following research question: How has the securitisation of oil supply chains contributed to the PRC’s transition from a traditional policy of non-interference in domestic sovereign affairs to one of proactive engagement in the case studies of Sudan and South Sudan between 1989 and 2020? From a theoretical perspective, securitisation in authoritarian contexts has been underdeveloped conceptually, and greater emphasis needs to be put on the fragmentation of decision-making in the PRC. On an empirical level, this paper may provide valuable insights as to how the PRC might navigate its foreign policy in similar crisis diplomacy incidents in future. Keywords: Chinese foreign policy, energy security, securitisation, fragmented authoritarianism Contents List of Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................ 2 0.1 The Principle of Non-Intervention ................................................................................................ 2 0.2 Aims and Research Puzzle ............................................................................................................... 4 0.3 Significance ......................................................................................................................................... 5 0.4 Essay Structure .................................................................................................................................. 6 1. The Theoretical Framework: Securitisation in a ‘Fragmented Authoritarian’ Model ...... 7 1.1. The Securitisation Debate ............................................................................................................... 7 1.1. The Incompatibility of CS Securitisation to Authoritarian Societies ........................................ 9 1.2. Securitisation in a ‘Fragmented Authoritarian’ Model ............................................................. 11 1.3. Sub-Questions ................................................................................................................................ 15 2. Methodology ........................................................................................................................................ 16 2.1. Ontology and Epistemology ........................................................................................................ 16 2.2. Research Design ............................................................................................................................ 16 2.2.1. Sampling ............................................................................................................................. 17 2.2.2. Data Collection ................................................................................................................. 17 2.2.3. Analysis ............................................................................................................................... 19 2.3. Limitations ...................................................................................................................................... 20 3. The ‘Two Chinas’: Competing Interests in the Energy Sector and the Importance of Oil ................................................................................................................................................................ 21 3.1. An Introduction to Energy Security ........................................................................................... 21 Anton Witchell-Chibber 6802214 3.2. The PRC and its Oil Consumption ............................................................................................ 21 3.3. Historic Trauma and the Need for Self-Sufficiency ................................................................. 23 3.4. Import Dependence and the ‘Go Out’ Strategy ....................................................................... 23 3.5. The Role of Sudan ......................................................................................................................... 24 3.6. Corporate Interests and the NOCs............................................................................................. 25 3.7. The ‘Feedback Loop’ .................................................................................................................... 29 3.8. The ‘Board Over the Board’: Party Influence on NOC Decision-Making ........................... 33 3.9. Chapter Summary .......................................................................................................................... 36 4. By-Products and Parallel Securitisations: Investments, Trade and Chinese Citizens .. 38 4.1. Further Economic Interests ......................................................................................................... 38 4.1.1. Investments and Infrastructure ...................................................................................... 38 4.1.2. The Belt and Road Initiative ........................................................................................... 40 4.1.3. Private Business ................................................................................................................ 41 4.1.4. The Security-Development Nexus ................................................................................. 42 4.2. Overseas Citizens .......................................................................................................................... 43 4.3. The ‘Chinese Dream’ .................................................................................................................... 43 4.4. Chapter Summary .......................................................................................................................... 44 5. Extraordinary Measures and the End of Non-Intervention: Empirical Threats to Oil Supply Chains and Successful Securitisation in Sudan and South Sudan ............................. 46 5.1. Extraordinary Measures, Audience Acceptance and Successful Securitisation .................... 46 5.2. Sudan’s Civil Wars ......................................................................................................................... 47 5.3. China and the Second Sudanese Civil War ................................................................................ 48 Anton Witchell-Chibber 6802214 5.4. Darfur and the ‘Genocide Olympics’ ......................................................................................... 49 5.5. The CPA and the Courting of Juba ............................................................................................ 51 5.6. The Oil Shutdown of 2012 .......................................................................................................... 53 5.7. Oil and Patronage in South Sudan .............................................................................................. 55 5.8. China and the South Sudanese Civil War .................................................................................. 56 5.9. Chapter Summary .......................................................................................................................... 63 6. Extraordinary Measures & the End of Non-Intervention Part II: Successful Securitisation in National Security Policy, Regulations and Military Developments ....... 65 6.1. National Security Policy and Legislation .................................................................................... 65 6.2. Restructuring the PLA .................................................................................................................