From fish biodiversity indicators to spatial risk assessments - Towards the integration of Blue Growth and conservation objectives in the German Bight Dissertation with the aim of achieving a doctoral degree at the Faculty of Mathematics, Informatics and Natural Sciences Department of Biology of University of Hamburg submitted by Henrike Rambo 2017 in Hamburg The following evaluators recommend the admission of the dissertation: Prof. Dr. Christian Möllmann Dr. Vanessa Stelzenmüller Day of the disputation: 30. June 2017 Für Papa Content Executive summary ............................................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 1 ............................................................................................................................................... 1 General introduction ............................................................................................................................ 1 1. The challenge ahead: integrating Blue Growth with conservation objectives ................................ 1 2. The solution? EU policies to achieve Ecosystem-Based Marine Spatial Management .................. 2 3. The case study: Setting the spatial management context in the German Bight .............................. 6 4. Evaluating effects of EB-MSM in the German Bight..................................................................... 9 4.1 Spatial management measures likely to affect the achievement of high level objectives ...... 11 4.2 Operationalisation of spatially explicit biodiversity indicators .............................................. 13 4.3 Bayesian Belief Networks to support spatial environmental risk evaluation ......................... 16 5. Thesis objectives........................................................................................................................... 18 6. References .................................................................................................................................... 20 Chapter 2 ............................................................................................................................................. 26 Mapping fish community biodiversity for European marine policy requirements ...................... 26 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................. 27 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 28 2. Material & methods ...................................................................................................................... 31 2.1 Data source and preparatory analysis ..................................................................................... 31 2.2 Biodiversity indicators and the community sensitivity index ................................................ 32 2.3 Spatial modelling.................................................................................................................... 34 2.4 Direct and indirect mapping ................................................................................................... 35 2.5 Indicator assessment ............................................................................................................... 39 3. Results .......................................................................................................................................... 39 3.1 Structural analysis of spatial models ...................................................................................... 39 3.2 Comparison of mapping approaches ...................................................................................... 40 3.3 Comparison of biodiversity indicators ................................................................................... 44 4. Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 46 5. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................... 52 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... 54 Supplementary data .......................................................................................................................... 54 References ........................................................................................................................................ 57 Chapter 3 ............................................................................................................................................. 61 Disentangling fishing from habitat effects to explain spatial patterns in fish community sensitivity to fisheries .......................................................................................................................... 61 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................. 62 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 63 2. Material & methods ...................................................................................................................... 65 2.1 Study site and the CSI ............................................................................................................ 65 2.2 Mapping of fishing pressure ................................................................................................... 67 2.3 Spatially resolved pressure-state relationships ....................................................................... 70 3. Results .......................................................................................................................................... 72 3.1 Species-habitat relationship and fishing effort ....................................................................... 72 3.2 Correlative analysis ................................................................................................................ 73 3.3 Regression-based analysis ...................................................................................................... 76 4. Discussion ..................................................................................................................................... 79 5. Conclusions .................................................................................................................................. 81 Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................................... 82 Supplementary information .............................................................................................................. 83 References ........................................................................................................................................ 85 Chapter 4 ............................................................................................................................................. 89 Quantitative environmental risk assessments in the context of marine spatial management: Current approaches and some perspectives ..................................................................................... 89 Abstract ............................................................................................................................................. 90 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 91 2. Material and methods ................................................................................................................... 93 2.1 Risk assessment framework and review of current approaches .............................................. 93 2.2 Case study area and context .................................................................................................... 95 3. Results ........................................................................................................................................ 103 3.1 Review of current approaches ............................................................................................... 103 3.2 Case study ............................................................................................................................. 110 4. Discussion ................................................................................................................................... 116 4.1 Current ERA approaches and gaps in a spatial management context ................................... 116 4.2 Perspectives for assessing the trade-offs of MSP measures in the German EEZ of the North Sea ............................................................................................................................................... 118 5. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 120 Acknowledgements ........................................................................................................................ 121 References .....................................................................................................................................