Travel Forecasting Results Report August 2014 Prepared by Travel Forecasting Results Report August 2014 Prepared by: The San Diego Association of Governments (SANDAG) THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK Travel Forecasting Results Report Table of Contents Table of Contents PREFACE ............................................................................................................................... P-1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Purpose of the Report ...................................................................................... 1-1 1.2 Description of the Mid-Coast Corridor .............................................................. 1-2 1.3 Alternatives under Consideration ..................................................................... 1-2 1.3.1 No-Build Alternative .............................................................................. 1-2 1.3.2 Build Alternative ................................................................................. 1-12 2.0 TRAVEL DEMAND MODEL AND TRAVEL DEMAND................................................ 2-1 2.1 Travel Demand Model ...................................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Travel Analysis Districts ................................................................................... 2-2 2.3 Travel Demand Forecasts ................................................................................ 2-4 2.4 Major Transit Markets ...................................................................................... 2-6 3.0 ALTERNATIVES FROM A TRAVEL FORECASTING PERSPECTIVE ....................... 3-1 3.1 No-Build Alternative ......................................................................................... 3-1 3.2 Build Alternative ............................................................................................... 3-2 3.2.1 Operating Plan ..................................................................................... 3-2 3.2.2 Station Parking ..................................................................................... 3-3 3.2.3 Background Transit System.................................................................. 3-3 3.2.4 Travel Times ........................................................................................ 3-3 4.0 TRAVEL FORECASTING RESULTS .......................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Transit Results ................................................................................................. 4-1 4.1.1 Daily Trips by Mode .............................................................................. 4-1 4.1.2 Daily Transit Boardings ........................................................................ 4-4 4.1.3 Passenger Miles ................................................................................. 4-25 4.1.4 Transfer Rate between Major Transit Markets .................................... 4-26 4.1.5 Parking Demand................................................................................. 4-27 4.2 Highway Results ............................................................................................ 4-27 4.2.1 Vehicle Miles Traveled ....................................................................... 4-28 4.2.2 Vehicle Hours of Travel ...................................................................... 4-28 4.2.3 Average Speed................................................................................... 4-28 4.3 Highway and Transit Travel Times ................................................................. 4-31 5.0 TRANSIT USER BENEFITS ....................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 The Concept of User Benefits .......................................................................... 5-1 5.2 New Starts Baseline Alternative ....................................................................... 5-2 5.3 New Transit Trips and User Benefits by Trip Purpose and Time Period ........... 5-4 5.3.1 Build Alternative Compared to No-Build Alternative .............................. 5-4 5.3.2 Build Alternatives Compared to New Starts Baseline Alternative .......... 5-6 5.4 New Transit Trips and User Benefits by Major Transit Market .......................... 5-7 5.4.1 Build Alternatives Compared to No-Build Alternative ............................ 5-7 5.4.2 Build Alternatives Compared to New Starts Baseline Alternative .......... 5-9 5.5 Thematic Maps .............................................................................................. 5-11 5.5.1 Development of Thematic Maps ......................................................... 5-11 MID-COAST CORRIDOR TRANSIT PROJECT August 2014 i Travel Forecasting Results Report Table of Contents 5.5.2 Build Alternative Compared to New Starts Baseline Alternative for all Income Levels Combined............................................................... 5-12 5.5.3 Build Alternative Compared to New Starts Baseline Alternative for Low-Income Travelers Only ................................................................ 5-21 5.5.4 Summary ............................................................................................ 5-30 6.0 RESULTS FOR ANALYSIS OF EXISTING CONDITIONS WITH THE PROJECT ...... 6-1 6.1 Transit Results ................................................................................................. 6-1 6.1.1 Daily Trips by Mode .............................................................................. 6-1 6.1.2 Daily Transit Boardings ........................................................................ 6-4 6.1.3 Passenger Miles ................................................................................... 6-8 6.1.4 Transfer Rate between Major Transit Markets .................................... 6-15 6.1.5 Parking Demand................................................................................. 6-17 6.2 Highway Summary ......................................................................................... 6-17 6.2.1 Vehicle Miles Traveled ....................................................................... 6-20 6.2.2 Vehicle Hours of Travel ...................................................................... 6-20 6.2.3 Average Speed................................................................................... 6-20 7.0 REFERENCES ............................................................................................................ 7-1 MID-COAST CORRIDOR TRANSIT PROJECT ii August 2014 Travel Forecasting Results Report Table of Contents List of Appendices APPENDIX A MODE OF ACCESS AND EGRESS TABLES ................................................. A-1 Table A-1. Station Boardings by Access Mode under Existing Conditions (in PA Format) ................................................................................................... A-1 Table A-2. Station Alightings by Egress Mode under Existing Conditions (in PA Format) ................................................................................................... A-4 Table A-3. Station Boardings by Access Mode for Existing Conditions with the Project Alternative (in PA Format) ........................................................... A-7 Table A-4. Station Alightings by Egress Mode for Existing Conditions with the Project (in PA Format) ............................................................................. A-9 Table A-5. Station Boardings by Access Mode for Existing Conditions with the Project with VA Medical Center Station Option (in PA Format) .............. A-11 Table A-6. Station Alightings by Egress Mode for Existing Conditions with the Project with VA Medical Center Station Option (in PA Format) .............. A-13 Table A-7. No-Build Alternative Station Boardings by Access Mode (in PA Format) ................................................................................................. A-15 Table A-8. No Build Alternative Station Alightings by Egress Mode (in PA Format) ................................................................................................. A-17 Table A-9. Build Alternative Station Boardings by Access Mode (in PA Format) ..... A-19 Table A-10. Build Alternative Station Alightings by Egress Mode (in PA Format) ...... A-21 Table A-11. Build Alternative with VA Station Option Station Boardings by Access Mode (in PA Format) ................................................................. A-23 Table A-12. Build Alternative with VA Station Option Station Alightings by Egress Mode (in PA Format) ............................................................................. A-25 APPENDIX B USER BENEFITS BY TRAVEL ANALYSIS DISTRICT ................................ B-1 Table B-1. User Benefits by Travel Analysis District ................................................. B-1 MID-COAST CORRIDOR TRANSIT PROJECT August 2014 iii Travel Forecasting Results Report Table of Contents List of Figures Figure 1-1. Mid-Coast Corridor........................................................................................... 1-3 Figure 1-2. No-Build Alternative Transportation Improvements .......................................... 1-5 Figure 1-3. No-Build Alternative Major Bus Routes ............................................................ 1-7 Figure 1-4. No-Build Alternative Bus Route 150 ................................................................. 1-8