Monthly Food Security Report FEWS NET Issued 9 June 2001 Food Security Analysis Unit This report is a joint publication of FSAU/FAO and FEWS NET EDITORIAL Food Security Highlights Gu season crop assessment is  RAINFALL AND CROP ESTABLISHMENT : The Gu 2001 cropping season started ongoing. Concern has been late, (like last year) in the second half of April, when rainfall was reported almost expressed from many quarters over everywhere in S.Somalia. However, May rainfall this year, has not been as good poor crop condition especially in the as in 2000. Well distributed rains were received in the Shabelle valley with the northern production areas of Hiran, exception of Hiran. In the Juba valley, weather conditions have been favorable to Gedo, Bay and Bakool. Further FSAU agriculture from Lower Juba to south Gedo. Conversely, May has been abnormally analysis will need to consider dry in most parts of northern Gedo, Bakool and Bay seriously inhibiting crop normal coping strategies within establishment. Adequate rainfall in June will be essential to allow partial crop different Food Economy Zones and recovery in those areas. Further information on rainfall estimates through the varying vulnerability of a range satellite imagery are available at Fews Net. (E-Mail : [email protected].) of Wealth Groups. Flexibility will be found in access  LIFTING OF LIVESTOCK BAN BY UAE : A slight recovery of the Somali currency to food and income sources and occurred, after the UAE announced the lifting of the ban. It is however expected changes in consumption and that this will only have limited impact on the food security situation in northern expenditure. Examples may include, Somalia. In normal circumstances, the Emirate market accommodates only 2% increased income from petty trade of the total livestock exported from Somalia to Arab countries. and employment, and some additional livestock sales. The  SEASONAL SEA-PORT CLOSURE: As well as the impact of the UAE lifting the ban change in market prices of staples, (see above) the slight recovery of the Somali currency in May can also be ex- currency fluctuations and general plained by seasonal sea-port closure due to the monsoon, which will reduce the terms of trade will also need to be demand for foreign currency. considered. One of the key issues will be household (Hh) stocks.  BORDER CLOSURE BETWEEN DJIBOUTI AND SOMALILAND : The border closure This season follows overall good remains in place. In Awdal region, the poor urban food economy group who rely on production last year. Relief food aid petty trade have already felt the impact (all locally produced cereal and from Ethiopia and Kenya has also vegetables are usually marketed in Djibouti). had an influence on earlier, low de- mand for local surpluses. June/July  PRICE OF FUEL AND OTHER IMPORTED COMMODITIES INCREASE : Over the last rains will determine recovery of the six months the price of fuel has increased dramatically, especially diesel, used in Gu crop. Conditions indicate a poor mechanized agriculture, water pumping and transport. Riverine and pump irri- harvest but it is important to note gated food economy groups are facing difficulties irrigating their farms in some that the Relief Food pipeline situa- areas. Imported food commodity prices are expected to increase further in the tion is reported to be close to 5000 coming months due to the sea-port closure (monsoon). MT. Nutrition Update Immediately after the Gu harvest access to grains should be ade- Surveys. UNICEF has undertaken a nutrition support to organisations during nutrition quate. If a disappointing harvest survey in Bossasso in April and the results are surveys and food security assessments. results, poorer households may feel expected soon. During June, a nutrition survey A review of the nutrition situation in Bulla the greatest pressure towards the is planned in Hargeisa, led by UNICEF with Hawa in January 2001 showed that a end of the year. Early contingency technical support from FSAU. The ACF substantial number of children were attending planning would be required to en- nutrition survey planned for Luuq in June has the MSF-Spain supplementary feeding able a timely response. For poorer been postponed. programme in Mandera, Kenya. By April groups access to income sources Following the recommendations of the 2001, 45% of the project beneficiaries were would be the crucial issue if normal nutrition survey in Jamame, targeted from Somalia. MSF-Spain closed the feeding coping mechanisms are to be sup- distribution of food-aid has commenced programme in April and the therapeutic feeding programme has been established in ported and this could result in through Muslim-Aid UK. the Kenya Government Hospital in Mandera. increased population movements to The Nutrition Working Group once again reminded organisations undertaking nutrition The consequences of this at a time when urban centers. The FSAU Nutrition thousands of displaced people from Bulla team have highlighted concern for surveys of the importance of considering information from varied sources during Hawa have settled in Mandera have yet to be IDPs and Urban Poor as it is the nutrition surveys. Surveys that produce determined. socially marginalized who become results on nutritional status in isolation of The separate FSAU monthly publication most exposed and are less able to other contextual information on the population ‘Nutrition Update for Somalia’ is available benefit from kin-support including are of very limited use. FSAU nutritionists and from [email protected] or remittances. food security experts are available to provide [email protected] The FSAU is funded by the EC and implemented by FAO. Further information is avail- FEWS NET is funded by USAID and implemented by Chemonics, Inc. Further able through PO Box 30470, Nairobi, Tel: (254-2) 741299, 745734, 748297, Fax: information is available through PO Box 66613, Nairobi, Tel: 350523, Fax: 750839, 740598, e-mail: [email protected], www:unsomalia.org under ‘Food Security” e-mail: [email protected] The FSAU Nutrition component receives additional funding from USAID. FSAU acknowledges the contribution from UNCU to the health information. FSAU key partners include CARE, FEWS, WFP, FAO, SCF(UK), UNCU, UNDP/DIMU and UNICEF. While all efforts have been made to utilize the most accurate data and information available, neither FSAU, FEWS, nor any of their supporters or partners endorse any figure or political boundary as definitive. FSAU Monthly Food Security Report for May 2001 LOCAL CEREAL PRICES EXCHANGE RATE Maize and sorghum prices have Comparative Retail Maize Prices, substantially increased since the Somali Shilling per US Dollar, between May 99, May 2000 and May 2001 Mogadishu Market, Nov-98 to May-2001 3,000 May-99 May-2000 May-2001 beginning of the year in S.Somalia. 2,500 Implications differ depending if the 30,000 2,000 household is buying or selling cere- 20,000 1,500 als. Maize prices, which were very 10,000 1,000 Ssh per Kg per Ssh low since the last Gu 2000, only 500 per US$ Ssh - started to increase in February. Up 0 Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Jul Nov Mar Mogadishu Beletweyne Jowhar Merca to March, prices were still below or close to last year’s level. Prices con- 1998 1999 2000 2001 tinued to increase gradually in April. In May, in M./L. Shabelle, it increased further by an average of 10% over last month’s level. In Mogadishu, it reached 2,700 Ssh/kg at the Somaliland Shiling per US Dollar, end of May 2001 (compared to 1,700 Ssh in May 2000). At the same time, the lowest Hargeisa Market, Nov-98 to May-2001 7,000 prices were found in Baidoa (1,600 Ssh/kg), Belet-Weyne and Bardera (about 2,000 6,000 Ssh/kg) and the highest in L.Juba (well above 3,000 Ssh/kg). In Somali currency, maize 5,000 prices are now significantly higher compared to last year at the same period (see 4,000 graph). However, due to the devaluation, the trend is totally different when we consider 3,000 SlSh per US$ the prices in dollars: 0.14 USD/kg, 0.17 USD and 0.27 USD/kg respectively in May 2,000 2001, 2000, 1999 in Mogadishu. Since the last Gu 2000 harvest and up to January Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May Aug Nov Feb May 2001, sorghum prices have been very low in the sorghum belt (400-600 Ssh/kg). The 1998 1999 2000 2001 value of sorghum drastically increased in February/March. In Baidoa, the retail price reached 1,000 Ssh end of March. After having dropped moderately in April, it started The value of Somali currency slightly recov- again to increase up to 1,100 Ssh by the end of May. As opposed to maize, sorghum ered in May. In Mogadishu main Bakara mar- prices are still much lower than last year at the same period (2,000 Ssh/kg in Baidoa in ket, the Somali shilling appreciated from Ssh May 2000). Taking the devaluation into consideration, the market situation is obviously 20,000 per dollar in April to Ssh 19,000 per less favourable this year compared to last year from the point of view of the cereal dollar in May (+5%). In Hargeisa market, the seller: 0.06 USD/kg in late May 2001 (19,000 Ssh/USD) compared to 0.2 USD/kg in Somaliland shilling appreciated by 9 % with late May 2000 (10,000 Ssh/USD). Even though the situation was excellent in terms of respect to the previous month. This slight re- Gu 2000 crop production, the major source of income for most of the agro-pastoralist covery has been mainly due to two factors.