ACCUMULATION MODEL PROCESSES OF HUMAN SUBORBITAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY EMERGENCE Thesis Presented for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY IN BUSINESS ADMINISTRATIONTown In the Graduate School of Business UNIVERSITY OF CAPECape TOWN of by Kenneth John Davidian University Supervisor: Professor Richard Chivaka 1 June 2018 The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgementTown of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or non- commercial research purposes only. Cape Published by the University ofof Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. University COPYRIGHT STATEMENT The copyright of this thesis vests in the author. No quotation from it or information derived from it is to be published without full acknowledgement of the source. The thesis is to be used for private study or noncommercial research purposes only. Published by the University of Cape Town (UCT) in terms of the non-exclusive license granted to UCT by the author. 1-Jun-18 ii PLAGIARISM DECLARATION I, Ken Davidian, hereby declare that this thesis/dissertation has been submitted to the Turnitin module (or equivalent similarity and originality checking software) and I confirm that my supervisor has seen my report and any concerns revealed by such have been resolved with my supervisor. Signature: Name: Ken Davidian Date: 1 June 2018 iii 1-Jun-18 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... 1 1. INTRODUCTION......................................................................................................... 2 1.1 PHENOMENON ...................................................................................................... 3 1.2 THEORY ................................................................................................................. 4 1.3 PROBLEM ............................................................................................................. 13 1.4 SETTING ............................................................................................................... 14 1.4.1 Industry Context ............................................................................................. 14 1.4.2 Industry Analogs ............................................................................................ 18 1.5 THESIS ROAD MAP ............................................................................................ 25 2. LITERATURE REVIEW .......................................................................................... 26 2.1 MAIN ACADEMIC THEMES .............................................................................. 26 2.1.1 Economics and Innovation ............................................................................. 27 2.1.2 Innovation Development Meta-Theory .......................................................... 30 2.1.3 Economic Sociology ...................................................................................... 42 2.1.4 Institution Theory - Legitimacy ..................................................................... 45 2.2 RESEARCH FIT WITHIN THE LITERATURE .................................................. 47 2.3 CONTEXT OF OTHER STUDIES ....................................................................... 49 3. METHODOLOGY & DATA ..................................................................................... 58 3.1 METHODOLOGY DESCRIPTION ...................................................................... 58 3.2 METHODOLOGY JUSTIFICATION................................................................... 66 3.3 DATA ..................................................................................................................... 70 4. RESULTS .................................................................................................................... 74 4.1 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS ............................................................... 74 4.1.1 Legitimation ................................................................................................... 74 4.1.2 Governance ..................................................................................................... 80 4.1.3 Technology Standards .................................................................................... 85 4.2 RESOURCE ENDOWMENTS ............................................................................. 86 4.2.1 Scientific and Technological Research .......................................................... 87 4.2.2 Financing and Insurance Arrangements ......................................................... 91 4.2.3 Human Competence Pool (Training and Accreditation) ................................ 96 4.3 PROPRIETARY FUNCTIONS ........................................................................... 102 4.3.1 Technological Development Functions ........................................................ 102 4.3.2 Innovation Network and Resource Channel Activities ................................ 107 4.3.3 Market Creation and Consumer Demand ..................................................... 111 4.4 IIE INTERACTIONS .......................................................................................... 118 4.4.1 Institutional Arrangements-Resource Endowments Interactions ................. 118 4.4.2 Institutional Arrangements-Proprietary Functions Interactions ................... 119 4.4.3 Resource Endowments-Proprietary Functions Interactions ......................... 122 1-Jun-18 iv 4.5 THE INFLUENCE OF PRIZES .......................................................................... 124 5. DISCUSSION ............................................................................................................ 127 5.1 INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS DISCUSSION ..................................... 127 5.2 RESOURCE ENDOWMENTS DISCUSSION ................................................... 131 5.3 PROPRIETARY FUNCTIONS DISCUSSION .................................................. 134 5.4 IIE INTERACTIONS DISCUSSION .................................................................. 137 5.5 INDUSTRY EMERGENCE PROCESS DIAGRAMS ....................................... 139 5.5.1 Industry Emergence Chart ............................................................................ 139 5.5.2 Process Flow Diagrams ................................................................................ 141 5.5.3 Process Flow Diagram with Prizes ............................................................... 159 5.6 GENERALIZABILITY OF HSSTI RESULTS ................................................... 168 6. CONCLUSIONS, LIMITATIONS, AND FURTHER RESEARCH ................... 175 6.1 IIE CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................ 175 6.2 IIE LIMITATIONS AND FURTHER RESEARCH ........................................... 181 6.3 COMPARISON WITH ORIGINAL ACCUMULATION MODEL ................... 188 6.4 GENERAL CONCLUSIONS .............................................................................. 191 6.4.1 Basic Tenets of Accumulation Model .......................................................... 191 6.4.2 Responses to Corollary Questions ................................................................ 197 6.4.3 Practical Implications ................................................................................... 200 REFERENCES .............................................................................................................. 206 APPENDIX A. LEGITIMACY TYPOLOGY TRANSLATION TABLE .............. 220 APPENDIX B. DETAILED HSSTI EMERGENCE CHART .................................. 222 APPENDIX C. INDUSTRY STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS QUESTIONS ............... 223 APPENDIX D. DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION ANALYSIS QUESTIONS ............ 234 APPENDIX E. HSSTI SAFETY APPROVALS ........................................................ 236 APPENDIX F. HSSTI EXPERIMENTAL PERMITS .............................................. 236 APPENDIX G. HSSTI LAUNCH OPERATORS’ LICENSES ................................ 237 APPENDIX H. HSSTI SPACEPORT OPERATORS’ LICENSES ......................... 238 APPENDIX I. HSSTI ENDORSEMENT AGREEMENTS ...................................... 239 APPENDIX J. HSSTI-RELATED KNOWLEDGE-SHARING EVENTS ............. 240 APPENDIX K. ACCUMULATION MODEL FRAMEWORK COMPARISON .. 242 APPENDIX L. COMPLETE SET OF PROCESS PROPOSITIONS...................... 243 PROPOSED GENERALIZED INDUSTRY EMERGENCE PROCESSES ............. 243 PROPOSED PRIZE EVENT INDUSTRY EMERGENCE PROCESSES ............... 245 v 1-Jun-18 TABLE OF TABLES TABLE 1. ORIGINAL ACCUMULATION MODEL TAXONOMY ........................ 12 TABLE 2. COMPARISON OF EMERGING INDUSTRY CHARACTERISTICS ... 24 TABLE 3. MODIFIED INSTITUTIONAL ARRANGEMENTS IIE SECOND- ORDER ELEMENTS ......................................................................................... 143 TABLE 4. MODIFIED RESOURCE ENDOWMENTS THIRD-ORDER ELEMENTS ............................................................................................................................. 147 TABLE 5. RELATIONSHIP OF PROPRIETARY FUNCTION 2ND- AND 3RD- ORDER ELEMENTS TO INDUSTRY PHASES .............................................. 153 TABLE A 1. LEGITIMACY TYPOLOGIES BY DIFFERENT AUTHORS, LISTED CHRONOLOGICALLY. ...................................................................................