Scenario E Status: A Flexible Path of Human and Robotic Exploration Presented to the Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee 7/22/2009 Denver, Colorado David Korsmeyer Intelligent Systems Division (Code TI) NASA Ames Research Center Phone: (650) 604-3114 [email protected] Scenario E) Flexible Path • Piloted missions to many places in the inner solar system • Orbit planets with deep gravity wells; Rendezvous with small bodies • Tele-robotically explore and sample planetary surfaces NEOs Sun - Earth L 2 L Moon 2 L4 L1 Mars L5 Earth Phobos L3 & Deimos Sun - Earth L1 Venus Sun1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 2 A Flexible Path of Human and Robotic Exploration ! A Flexible Path for Exploration • Frequent, measured, and visible human exploration of space beyond Earth orbit • Cross-leverage the human and robotics capabilities • Gain operational experience and system validation " For long duration missions (90 – 600 days) beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO) " In vicinity of low-gravity planetary bodies ! Key Scientific Return • Exploration while producing exciting new science each step of the way • Understanding human impacts of " long-term radiation environment in deep space " extended exposure to micro-gravity environment • Multi-kilogram sample return from solar system bodies. Some radically different from Moon/Mars • Telerobotic exploration and sampling of the surface of Mars ! Public Engagement and Inspiration • Cultivate and maintain public support by taking on demonstrably new, visible and different space missions • Unprecedented deep space missions with dramatic perspective of the Itokawa. Earth-Moon system and voyages to NEOs, Mars and Venus Courtesy JAXA 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 3 Ground Rules • Piloted missions to many different venues is a key metric • Planetary surfaces within a deep gravity well will be accessed telerobotically by the Crew • Robotic precursors to NEO missions, and for Mars surface sample collection • TransHab or equivalent habitat space is commercially / IP available • Using Constellation launch vehicle capabilities as baseline; Ares I & V • Orion capsule used for crew launch from Earth, Earth entry, descent and landing (EDL), and in-space piloted missions. No changes other than block upgrades Assumptions • 1 crewed flight, plus 1-2 cargo missions, per year • 3-5 person crew with closed-loop Environmental Control & Life Support System (ECLSS) mass which varies with mission duration • EELV upper stage with low boil-off available in 2015 • Cryogenic oxygen/hydrogen Earth Departure Stage (EDS) with low boil-off available initially and on- orbit “Topping-off” of EDS in LEO available (not necessarily a depot) • Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) propulsion available in late 2020’s • Mission maximum duration of approximately 2 years • Earth entry velocity not to exceed 12 km/s • Chemical Isp = 448 sec; NTR Isp = ~900 sec 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 4 Scenario E Analysis Process LV Architecture #2 Mission Analysis for crew various destinations Scenario E) LV Architecture #1 G & A Trajectory Analysis of Flexible Missions Develop Transportation Manifest of Flexible Missions Assess and Determine Enabling Technologies Robotic Precursors 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 5 Flexible Path: Evolving Sequence of Missions ! The Flexible Path Scenario is a sequence of missions with increasing capability into the inner solar system Minimum Near Earth Sun-Earth Limited Inner Inner Capability 21+ day duration Vicinity Solar System Solar System 7-14 day duration 30-90 day duration ~200 day duration >365 day duration Zero boil off & Refueling = = = = = 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 6 Flexible Path: Point Of Departure Architecture Unpiloted Lunar Flyby Piloted NEO1 Piloted Mars Flyby Piloted Phobos Piloted NEO3 or S-E Piloted Piloted Piloted Piloted (2007 UN12) Piloted NEO2 and Mars Mission and MSR (AO 10 or Lagrange Lunar Flyby EML1 SEL2 SEL1 /(2008 EA9) (2001GP2) Telerobotics Capture Other) NEO Science Telescope NEO Precursor 1 Deployment? Servicing Precursor 2 MSR Sample Lunar Capture Telerobotic Mars at Crater Phobos MSR Sampler Phobos Explorer Scout Rover Deep Deep Space Space Hab IOC Hab Deep Space Deep Deep Deep Deep Deep Airlock Space Space Space Space Space Hab Hab Hab Hab Hab Centaur US Human return to cislunar space Partial Partial Topped Topped Topped Centaur Centaur EDS EDS off EDS off EDS off EDS US US Centaur US Launch 1 Flexible Exploration Mission per year. Other Orion/Ares1 launches are assumed to support ISS utilization ZBO / Re-tanking tech. available tech. / Re-tanking ZBO Mars Manned Landing? Venus Orbit, Main Orbit, Venus Landing? Manned Mars Tour? Belt 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25 FY26 … ISS 0 ISS 4 ISS 4 ISS 4 ISS 4 ISS 3 5 5 0 3 3-5 3-5 7 or 400 10 21 30 90 190 210 700? 0 ~760 150 420(Venus) # - Crew Size # - Mission Duration # - Flexible Path Mission Number Page 7 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 7 Key Scenario E Trades & Sensitivities • Transportation Options • Habitation / Life Support / Human • Two Ares I (one crew, one cargo) Factors • EELV Options • Crew (3-5) Habitat size - Current EELV upper stage • ECLSS Closure - Evolve to Enhanced EELV • Logistics staging prior to TEI • Timing of Ares V • Sustainable food growth • Human-rated Ares V or Ares IV • Induced Gravity • Orion Service Module Delta-V modifications • Radiation protection method • In-space engine (J-2X, RL-10, NTR, etc.) - Long duration functionality • Cost - LOX/H2 Performance (Isp 448 – 470 sec) • Flight Rate - Safety and reliability • ISS commercial handover date - Chemical vs NTR • Phase Progression timing • On-orbit Propellant Transfer • Mission Planning • “Top-off” propulsive stages vs. depot(s) • Delta-V vs flight duration • Active vs. passive boil-off mitigation • Short-stay vs. long-stay • Staged partial full EDS vs top-off full EDS • Time between launches • Locale at destinations - Flyby - Halo orbit - Vicinity / highly elliptical orbit - Low circular orbit 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 8 Launch Vehicle LEO Payload Classes & Usage ! 25 t Class (for Orion or Centaur upper stage) • Ares I (or other Shuttle heritage vehicle) for Orion launch • Existing/Upgraded EELV (Delta IV-H, Atlas V-H) for Centaur upper stage • Falcon 9 Heavy? ! 70 t Class (for EDS, Hab, NTR, and/or Orion) • Ares V or IV • Shuttle Derived (side-mount and in-line payload options) • Evolved EELV ! 100 – 120 t Class (for EDS, Hab, NTR, and/or Orion) • Shuttle Derived (in-line payload option with upper stage) • New Design (Shuttle and/or EELV heritage, up to ET dia. Core) 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 9 In-space Propulsion and Propellant Resupply Trades With propellant resupply, an EDS could perform transfer mission injection for Flexible Path missions ! Trade EDS use/resupply vs NTR development costs/use ! Trade EDS staging vs EDS propellant resupply for missions Payload vs. DeltaV 160 Single Centaur Orion 606G SM 140 ARES I Upper Stage Full * EELV Centaur Upper Stage ARES V 51.00.48 EDS Full * 120 NTR Core (DRA 5.0) NTR with Saddle Truss and Drop Tank (DRA 5.0 Burn 1) 100 NTR with Saddle Truss (DRA 5.0 Burn 2) 80 Payload (t) Ares V Earth Departure Stage (EDS) 60 40 20 0 DRA 5 Nuclear Thermal Rocket (NTR) 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 11.00 Delta -V (km/s) 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 10 Flexible Path Transportation Elements Initial and then Modest Capability Full Capability or (NTR = 3.5 launch) (Chemical = 5.5 launch) • !"#$%&'#()&*++,"&-(./,&01,%(.2"&.%3&(),%&45-6 • 7."8&E".%8#(&F,)#G@,&07EF6&3,H%,3&D$"&IJJK&5LMN 7."8&M"G)#(,G(2",&-(23=&01),?#G.@&O8&>EL6 • 7#88#$%8&($&92%."&!":#(;&9./".%/,&<$#%(8&.%3 %,.":=&>4!8 • -2++$"(8&?#88#$%8&($&7."8&!":#(&0<)$:$86;&F,%28&!":#( • 1$?+@,(,@=&4A+,%3.:@, .%3&@,88&.GG,88#:@,&>4!8 • B%(,/".C$%&#%&4."()&!":#(;&#%3,+,%3,%(&$D&B-- • <$(,%C.@@=&",28.:@,&3,8#/%&0,AG,+(&D$"&!"#$%&,@,?,%(8 .%3&3"$+&(.%P86 • *++,"&8(./,&3,+@$=,3&#%&$":#( O#.&449F;&(),%&M",8&F&$"&),.O= @#Q&,R2#O.@,%( • 1",'&.%3&!"#$%&3,+@$=,3&O#. M",8&B&$"&,R2#O.@,%( • M@(,"%.(,&#8&)2?.%S".(,3&M",8&FS [email protected]&O,)#G@,&($&/.#%&8#%/@, Infrastructure required for Mission Propellant and Outfitting @.2%G)&D$"&?$3,8(&?#88#$%8 Infrastructure required for Scenarios 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 11 Flexible Path: Enabling Technology Needs ! Zero boil-off technology (~0.5% / month boil off at 0.1 kw/Mt) for EDS ! Zero-g cryogenic fluid transfer capability for filling EDS’s while in orbit ! In-space NTR transfer stage (Isp = 900 secs) •possibly not required depending on cryo-fluid transfer trades •definitely enhancing technology ! Closed-loop ECLSS technologies ! Human radiation and zero-g countermeasures robust enough to enable 2-year missions ! Proximity/contact operations technologies for !-gravity rendezvous with NEOs (Unique for Scenario E) 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 12 Robotic Precursors & Coupled Missions Precursor and concurrent robotic missions are integrated and enabling components of the Flexible Path Scenario ! NEO Precursors to validate physical characteristics and landing/anchoring methodology ! Robotic surface exploration of Mars, and Venus (lander / rover / aircraft / balloon) ! Mars surface sample return system: - to gather samples for piloted Phobos mission - to understand future human Mars landing site biology/toxicity/water These do not preclude other robotic missions to Moon and other destinations 1/25/10 Scenario E :: Pre-decisional NASA Analysis Page 13 NEO Precursor Mission Objectives ! Prior to sending a piloted mission to a NEO, additional characterization of the target is required ! Obtain basic reconnaissance to assess potential hazards to vehicle and crew ! NEOs could be binary systems, rapid rotators, potentially active surfaces, etc.