The Future of Police Missions Franca van der Laan Luc van de Goor Rob Hendriks Jaïr van der Lijn Clingendael Report Minke Meijnders Dick Zandee The Future of Police Missions Franca van der Laan Luc van de Goor Rob Hendriks Jaïr van der Lijn Minke Meijnders Dick Zandee Clingendael Report February 2016 February 2016 © Netherlands Institute of International Relations ‘Clingendael’. Cover photo: KMar (Koninklijke Marechaussee) Unauthorized use of any materials violates copyright, trademark and / or other laws. Should a user reproduce, distribute or display material from Clingendael publications or any other source for personal or non-commercial use, the user must retain all copyright, trademark or other similar notices contained in the original material on or any copies of the material. Material may be reproduced or publicly displayed, distributed or used for any public and non-commercial purposes, but only by mentioning the Clingendael Institute as its source. Permission is required to use the logo of the Clingendael Institute. This can be obtained by contacting the Communication desk of the Clingendael Institute ([email protected]). The following web link activities are prohibited by the Clingendael Institute and may present trademark and copyright infringement issues: links that involve unauthorized use of our logo, framing, inline links, or metatags, as well as hyperlinks or a form of link disguising the URL. About the authors Franca van der Laan is a Senior Research Fellow, seconded by the Dutch Police at Clingendael. She focuses on international police cooperation issues, transnational organised crime and terrorism. Luc van de Goor is Director Research at the Clingendael Institute. He has a background in history and conflict studies and has researched issues concerning fragile states, in particular reform of the security sector, DDR (disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration), conflict prevention and early warning, and peacebuilding (including issues of governance and democracy assistance). He is currently working on Security and Justice for the United Nations. LtCol Robert J. Hendriks EMSD is a Research and Training Fellow at Clingendael, on secondment from the Netherlands’ Armed Forces. His work encompasses the wide spectrum of security & defence topics, from the political/military strategic level down to the tactical level. Jaïr van der Lijn is Head of the Peace Operations and Conflict Management Team at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Before joining SIPRI, he was a Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute. He focuses his research on the different aspects of conflict resolution, such as peace operations, peace agreements, and the role of the United Nations. Minke Meijnders is Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute. Her research is focusing on international security and defence. She is involved in scenario/futurebuilding studies, including the Clingendael Strategic Monitor, and projects on maritime security and peacekeeping missions. Dick Zandee is Senior Research Fellow at the Clingendael Institute. His research focuses on security and defence issues, including policies, defence capability development, research and technology, armaments cooperation and defence industrial aspects. The Clingendael Institute P.O. Box 93080 2509 AB The Hague The Netherlands Email: [email protected] Website: http://www.clingendael.nl/ Contents Abstract 6 Executive Summary 7 Introduction 12 1 Future demand for police deployment in crisis situations 18 1.1 Evolving security issues and crisis regions 20 1.2 EU 24 1.3 UN 38 1.4 OSCE 56 1.5 NATO 66 1.6 Sub-conclusion 73 2 Dutch toolkit for police missions 76 2.1 Royal Marechaussee (KMar) 76 2.2 Netherlands Police (NP) 85 2.3 Lessons learned from earlier KMar and NP deployment 90 2.4 Sub-conclusion 92 3 Police missions as a national security instrument 94 3.1 The EU’s nexus CSDP-border security 95 3.2 Dutch policy goals and security issues 97 3.3 Contribution of police deployment abroad to Dutch security policy goals 105 3.4 Sub-conclusion 113 Conclusion 115 Literature 118 Appendix A Overviews of completed and ongoing EU civilian missions with police staff 124 Appendix B Overviews of completed and ongoing UN peace operations with police staff 127 4 The Future of Police Missions | Clingendael Report, February 2016 Appendix C Overview of completed and ongoing OSCE Field operations with police staff 131 Appendix D Overview of completed and ongoing NATO missions employing police capabilities 134 Appendix E Overview of deployment of KMar-personnel in policing roles in EU, UN, NATO and OSCE operations, running from 2000 onwards 136 Appendix F Overview of deployment of Police personnel in policing roles in EU, UN, NATO and OSCE operations, running from 2000 onwards 138 Abbreviations 140 5 Abstract The current security situation in the world, and specifically the zones of instability that surround and affect Europe, provide the Netherlands with many good reasons to contribute police capabilities to international crisis management missions. The EU, UN and OSCE struggle with both quantitative and qualitative personnel shortages when it comes to deploying police in missions. In qualitative terms, the increasing complexity of police mandates in missions, the multi-dimensional approach to security sector reform and other forms of crisis management and the shift of attention from observation and monitoring missions to mentoring, training, and capacity-building missions asks for high quality experts and senior leaders. NATO will continue to need police capabilities that can operate under a military command structure for the performance of its executive police duties, and, in exceptional cases, for urgent SSR tasks, in conflict situations where no other actors are present that can take up these tasks. Providing that the efforts in creating stability are successful, police deployment in multilateral operations abroad can prevent or reduce future spill-over effects from the crises these operations address. With both the Royal Marechaussee and the Netherlands’ Police as donor organisations, the Netherlands has a broad and well developed policing toolkit that can in many ways meet, or adapt to, the demand of the IOs. In order to match the increasing demand for police contributions, increasing the contribution of NP and/ or KMar staff to multilateral operations should be taken into consideration. The study argues to focus these contributions on a set of niches that fits both the IOs’ demand and national (security) policy objectives. More specialisation can enhance the quality of deployed staff or teams, it can streamline the relative competency discussion between the KMar and NP and it would sharpen the profile of the Netherlands as a supplier of policing capabilities. 6 Executive Summary The central objective of this study is to assess how the Netherlands can optimally adapt the police tools which it can make available for deployment in crisis situations abroad to the expected future demand from international organisations, and, secondly, to its own (security) policy goals. This summary adopts a three-step approach: Firstly, the future demand for police deployment of the EU, UN, OSCE and NATO is assessed. Secondly, the relevant Dutch policy goals are analysed, followed by an exploration of the question to what extent deployment in multilateral missions can serve these goals. The third step is to assess the policing capabilities which the Royal Netherlands Marechaussee (KMar) and the Netherlands Police (NP) can make available for deployment in these organisations’ missions and operations. The demand for police capabilities of the IOs is increasing and outpaces supply. The future demand for police capabilities is to a large extent determined by the number, geographical distribution and the nature of crises and conflicts. The security environment of Europe is volatile and is likely to remain this way. In the Eastern neighbourhood, there will remain the major challenge of hybrid warfare, tactics which Russia will most likely continue to use in future conflicts. On the Southern flank of Europe, the (wider-) MENA region is and will most probably remain characterised by instability and a complex pattern of intra- and interstate conflicts. These zones of instability produce spill-over effects that affect, inter alia, the EU, such as increasing migration, transnational crime and the spread of terrorism. For the EU, border security has become a major issue in the course of 2014 and 2015 due to the enormous increase in migration flows from the MENA region. Most likely, security problems related to migration to Europe will grow in importance and have an impact on the need to deploy more police personnel to guard Europe’s borders. The EU, UN and OSCE struggle with both quantitative and qualitative personnel shortages when it comes to deploying police in missions. In qualitative terms, the increasing complexity of police mandates in missions, the multi-dimensional approach to security sector reform and other forms of crisis management and the shift of attention from observation and monitoring missions to mentoring, training, and capacity-building missions asks for high quality experts and senior leaders. From countries like the Netherlands these IOs especially desire the deployment of senior staff to perform leading roles in their missions. In the case of the UN and the EU, a shift to more volatile operating conditions has increased training needs for staff in order to cope with physical hardship and violence. NATO will continue to need police capabilities that can operate under a military command structure for the performance of executive 7 The Future of Police Missions | Clingendael Report, February 2016 police duties and, in exceptional cases for urgent SSR tasks, in conflict situations when no other actors are present that can take up these tasks. For the optimal effectiveness of mentoring and reforming activities in EU, UN or OSCE operations, rotation cycles of police deployment should be extended to at least 12 months. Next to technical competencies, pedagogical and cultural adaptation skills, and political and conflict sensitivity are of the utmost importance.