Post Office Networks – Running to stand still Felix Gottschalk* Dublin, May 2019 27th Conference on Postal an Delivery Economics This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the presentation belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author's employer. Swiss Post, Regulation Economist, [email protected] Running to stand still Alice and the red queen - Commonwealth stamp, ca. 1998. «Now, here, you see, it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place. If you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast as that! Dr Felix Gottschalk -LewisDublin May Carroll, 2019 «Alice’s adventures in wonderland» (1865)2 100 years of stability, 20 years of change Historical development of the post office network in Switzerland Data: Swiss Post, Federal Statistical Office of Switzerland Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 3 An international phenomenon Data: UPU Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 4 What has changed? The post office in the postal value chain Collection Processing Delivery 1960 Post office Post office No bypassing the Post office post office Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 5 What has changed? The post office in the postal value chain Collection Processing Delivery 1960 Post office Post office No bypassing the Post office post office Online/business solutions Automated centers Post office/ agency / 2019 Post office / agency Often no need for parcel lockers the post office Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 6 What has changed? Post office network lost absolute and relative importance Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 7 3 economic dimensions of the post office network 1. Pure retail business dimension 2. Indirect business value (positive internal externalities) 3. General-economic value (positive societal externalities) Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 8 3 economic dimensions of the post office network 2017: postal retail units only business segment with negative revenue growth 1. Pure retail business dimension 2. Indirect business value (positive internal externalities) 3. General-economic value (positive societal externalities) Data: IPC Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 9 3 economic dimensions of the post office network 1. Pure retail business dimension $ costs without network development deficit 1. Pure retail business dimension revenues time Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 10 3 economic dimensions of the post office network $ costs with network development deficit costs after the end of network development 1. Pure retail business dimension cost development necessary for constant deficit «running to stand still» revenues → time start network end of network development development Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 11 3 economic dimensions of the post office network 1. Pure retail business dimension 2. Indirect business value (positive internal externalities) 3. General-economic value (positive societal externalities) − Image effects, consumer advising − Problem: indirect value is hard to measure! Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 12 3 economic dimensions of the post office network $ Hypothesis: indirect value + 2. indirect internal value is shrinking with time (?) deficit 1. Pure retail business dimension still «running to stand still»? revenues time Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 13 3 economic dimensions of the post office network 1. Pure retail business dimension 2. Indirect business value (positive internal externalities) 3. General-economic value (positive societal externalities) Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 14 3 economic dimensions of the post office network $ + 3. general economic value + 2. indirect internal value deficit 1. Pure retail business dimension revenues time network not attractive network not attractive for USP anymore for population anymore Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 15 Conclusion − Traditionally, developments of post office networks were not associated with business developments − Post office networks have evolved and lost absolute and relative significance; they are now often developed parallel to business develoments − Yet still today, post office networks can be viewed as incorporating three economic dimensions − But measurement problems occur w.r.t. indirect business value and the general economic value − Conflicts between USP and society inevitable as long as financing of the general economic value is not clear Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 16 Thank you. Felix Gottschalk Regulation Economist Swiss Post [email protected] This disclaimer informs readers that the views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in the presentation belong solely to the author, and not necessarily to the author's employer. Dr Felix Gottschalk - Dublin May 2019 17.