DISPLAYS AND OPTICS FOR AR & VR 2020 Market & Technology Report - April 2020 Optics are getting ready - now MicroLED displays are the next roadblock for the implementation of augmented reality. WHAT’S NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS BRING A BRIGHTER FUTURE • Technology status and trends Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) with most likely either MEMS or OLED-on-Silicon • Bill of materials approach to have been hot topics for decades. VR has been display solutions. However, for the market to really consumer trends; how to trade around for the consumer for some years now, be enabled, a complete technological paradigm off on technology to enable a built upon off-the-shelf components. Apart from shift is required. In terms of optics, everything compelling headset general improvements, the form factor is being revolves around waveguiding technology. For • Shipment volumes and values for worked upon and we see many developments in a long time they have been improving and were displays and optics in headsets microdisplays, including OLED-on-Silicon and fighting against the poor optical efficiency they • Use cases: What is there for the microLEDs, alongside pancake optics to be able could deliver. From less than 1% efficiency consumer and what should be to deliver a proper pixel density, field of view we can now see results that go an order of there? What is the role of OEMs? and form factor. magnitude beyond that. So much so that, while • Supply chain and industry AR was and continues to be the dream consumer uniformity needs to be improved, they meet the establishment electronics companies want to make real to minimum requirements for Original Equipment KEY FEATURES deliver the long-awaited revolution of replacing Manufacturers (OEMs). Yole Développement • Analysis of key challenges related to smartphones. But as children of the flat panel (Yole) expects a second milestone around 2023 AR & VR systems display industry, we are used to having very when the big consumer electronics brands come • Technical analysis of displays and high-quality displays all around us. And the image in with a product that respects the consumer optics for AR & VR, and associated quality that AR has been able to provide so far requirement trio of performance, cost and form roadmaps is not at this level yet. But technology has been factor. But one element is still missing at the • Analysis of related industrial and improving on all fronts and we are seeing some moment: the display engine. Though efforts are technological ecosystems progress in waveguiding optics and microLEDs continuing, we have not seen a microLED product • Market analysis/forecast for displays that will bring new functionality. yet. MicroLED microdisplays can provide what the and optics Yole Développement’s analysts expect a first other solutions cannot, including brightness, form • Analysis of future trends and generation of headsets to come in soon with a factor, color and contrast. And all the OEMs are evolution of AR & VR market 2021 milestone for reaching a significant volume waiting for this opportunity to materialize, as we landscapes sold. These will be based on conventional optics anticipate its penetration to reach 30% by 2027. REPORT OBJECTIVES Augmented Reality market trend – Scenario expectations for consumers Understand the status of displays and Professional optics technologies in AR & VR: dominates Use case reakthrough Acceptale form factor, • Recent progress etter performance • What are the remaining pinch points? Waveguide like early pilot line Expansion in products with customers • What are the trade-offs that will consumer market drive adoption? Status, trends and ... roadmaps for consumer adoption Inhouse ulky headsets ... Competitive landscape and supply 2023 Smaller form factor headsets Consumer market takeoff chain: ... aor OEs getting into • Identify the key players in 2021 the game technology development and 2019 Small form factor Increased consumer awareness manufacturing. Who is taking the Professional markets dominate ~1M units lead? Key partnerships <1M units • Scenarios and impacts for the supply chain (Yole Développement, April 2020) Market insights: AN EMERGING SUPPLY CHAIN WITH KEY MANUFACTURING CHALLENGES • AR & VR numbers of headsets • Subsequent volume and value for As it is complex to manufacture a microLED and hybrid bonding. In late March 2020, the displays and optics microdisplay at an acceptable cost with a proper Plessey and Vuzix partnership for microLEDs • Focus on waveguides and level of performance, we can monitor the in AR came to an end when Facebook signed microdisplays, enabling the industry’s progress. Many prototypes have been an exclusivity deal for Plessey to supply them transition towards consumers shown over the past 24 months, with different with microLEDs. This illustrates the interest manufacturing paths including red/green/ in the technology and how the supply chain is blue (RGB) native colors, color conversion establishing itself. DISPLAYS AND OPTICS FOR AR & VR 2020 Ref. YDR20080 In the meantime, we have seen lots of movement a complex manufacturing process based on nano- from the waveguiding optics perspective. In imprint lithography led to high costs. This has the past few years, we have seen investments been improved and now WaveOptics or Dispelix and partnerships including Lumus with Quanta, can likely provide waveguides to any OEM, moving Digilens with Foxconn, WaveOptics with Goertek from a captive technology towards becoming and Apple with Akonia. Between reflective, openly available. diffractive and holographic waveguides, comes the Among Apple, Facebook, Huawei and Samsung, question of who is going to get the lion’s share. who shall be the first to deliver a sleek design, It will all come down to performance and cost. good performance and decent cost consumer And cost is very much linked to the manufacturing headset? There is little to no doubt that though paths taken by the different technologies. Surface- Apple has everything in-house, all major brands relief grating-based waveguides have been are close and establishing partnerships and deals well-known for years now, being the choice of with all the waveguide and microLED players to Microsoft or Magic Leap. But poor yields linked to reach the consumer. Augmented Reality industry – Birth, players and relationships Reuests, financing, partnerships Hidden players with as many efforts to push for the market Technology development MicroLEDs and waveguides being the potential and push enablers for the consumer market, a worldwide microcosm is building up around the OEMs. ote non-exhaustive lists of companies. (Yole Développement, April 2020) THE NUMBERS OF THE CONSUMER MARKET DREAM The AR market has been mostly a professional- the interest of many in the supply chain, some still based market, as the performance, cost and form in stealth mode. factor trio is hard to balance. But thanks to all the Waveguides have improved a lot thanks to technological advancements, we can expect a 105% design efforts but also thanks to the push from Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) through equipment makers intensifying their efforts such as to 2027 in volume for AR headsets. And this EV Group and Oxford Instruments and substrate promise of a strongly growing market has sparked manufacturers. 2 000 Augmented Reality market – Value of high refractive index glass wafers for DOEs and HOEs 1 800 1 600 1 400 1 200 1 000 800 600 400 Value of high refractive index glass wafers in M 200 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 HOE $2,02 $2,63 $4,48 $49,82 $169,60 $315,47 $514,08 $,696,68 DOE $12,60 $16,16 $21,38 $59,87 $171,11 $400,00 $745,54 $1,038,32 DOE Diffractive Optical Element - OE olographic Optical Element (Yole Développement, April 2020) MARKET & TECHNOLOGY REPORT The glass industry has been working at disruption in the use case. That is why we expect providing high refractive index wafers to allow the OEMs to come in with a proper proposition for waveguide manufacturing, trying to push and to really kickstart the market. As the history of enable the market. Given the projected wafer the smartwatch shows, we think the adoption numbers and associated revenues, were the curve for AR will follow the same path, with first consumer market to thrive, it would represent early products maybe not providing compelling a non-negligible part of even the enormous performance and use case, until a big gun jumps in. As an example, Apple seems like a good glass business. candidate for that: they have the microLED But for the consumer market to thrive, it is effort, the waveguide effort, the application about more than just the hardware and providing effort with ARKit and also the 3D sensing a high-quality image in something that looks effort. As they progressively integrate some like a regular pair of glasses. If the end-result of these technologies in their newer products, AUTHORS simply consists of putting a smartwatch screen in they can raise awareness about AR, preparing As a Technology & Market Analyst, Displays, front of the eye, this is probably not compelling the consumer for when everything is ready for Zine Bouhamri, PhD is a member of the enough. Much like VR, there is a need for a real a headset. And perhaps we’ll see that by 2023. Photonics, Sensing & Display division at Yole Développement (Yole). Zine manages the day COMPANIES CITED IN THE REPORT (non exhaustive list) to day production of technology & market 4th Dimension Displays, AGC, Akonia Holographics, Aledia, Apple, AUO, Avegant, Bayer, BOE, reports, as well as custom consulting projects. Bosch, Canon, CastAR, Ceres Holographics, Colour Holographic, Compound Photonics, He is also deeply involved in the business Corning, Daqri, Dell, Digilens, Dispelix, eMagin, Etri, EVG, Eyefluence, Facebook, Finisar, Fove, development of the Displays unit activities Fraunhofer, Glo, Google, Hamamatsu, Himax, Holoeye, Hoya, HP, HTC, Idealens, Inkron, at Yole.