Annual Research report 2018 Amsterdam School of Economics PREFACE The 2018 annual research report of the Amsterdam School of Economics (ASE) documents the organisation, activities and results of its research institute ASE-RI. The funding of the institute provides the financial means for its staff members to write scientific papers and dissertations, attend and organise international workshops and conferences and supervise PhD students. The ambition of the ASE-RI is for the Amsterdam School of Economics to become a European top 10 Economics department based on its research output in Micro-Economics, Macro-Economics and Quantitative Economics. The research time allocation of the members of ASE-RI is made in line with this ambition. It is therefore aligned with the Research Fellow criteria of the Tinbergen Institute. Newly recruited junior faculty start out as tenure-track assistant professors. The criteria for receiving tenure parallel those for becoming a Tinbergen Institute research fellow. The Amsterdam School of Economics and therefore also ASE-RI pride themselves with their large number of highly qualified successful researchers whose research is documented in this yearly report. Prof. dr. Frank Kleibergen Director of the Amsterdam School of Economics Research Institute 1 Table of Contents Part A. The Research Institute Chapter 1: Institutional review ......................................................................................................... 5 1.1 Mission statement ............................................................................................................................................. 5 1.2 Organisation ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.3 Strategy and policy ............................................................................................................................................ 5 1.4 Targets ................................................................................................................................................................ 6 Chapter 2: Input ............................................................................................................................... 8 2.1 Research staff .................................................................................................................................................... 8 2.2 Resources, funding and facilities .................................................................................................................. 10 Chapter 3: Results .......................................................................................................................... 11 3.1 Processes in research, internal and external collaboration ....................................................................... 11 3.2 PhD programme ............................................................................................................................................. 11 3.3 Research output .............................................................................................................................................. 14 3.4 Academic reputation ...................................................................................................................................... 15 3.5 Relevance to society ....................................................................................................................................... 15 Chapter 4: Research Priority Area: Behavioural Economics ......................................................... 17 4.1 Background...................................................................................................................................................... 17 4.2 Organisation .................................................................................................................................................... 17 Chapter 5: Research Focal Area: Risk and Macro Finance ........................................................... 18 5.1 Background...................................................................................................................................................... 18 5.2 Activities........................................................................................................................................................... 18 5.3 Publications (selection) .................................................................................................................................. 19 Part B. The Research Programmes Chapter 6: UvA-Econometrics ....................................................................................................... 22 6.1 Members of the research group and research in FTEs ............................................................................ 22 6.2 Programme Design......................................................................................................................................... 22 6.3 Programme evaluation ................................................................................................................................... 24 6.4 Resources and funding .................................................................................................................................. 25 6.5 Output .............................................................................................................................................................. 25 Chapter 7: Equilibrium, Expectations & Dynamics ..................................................................... 27 7.1 Members of the research group and research in FTEs ............................................................................ 27 7.2 Programme design .......................................................................................................................................... 28 7.3 Programme evaluation ................................................................................................................................... 29 7.4 Resources and Funding ................................................................................................................................. 30 7.5 Output .............................................................................................................................................................. 31 2 Chapter 8: Actuarial Science & Mathematical Finance ................................................................. 36 8.1 Members of the research group and research in FTEs ............................................................................ 36 8.2 Programme design .......................................................................................................................................... 37 8.3 Programme evaluation ................................................................................................................................... 37 8.4 Resources and funding .................................................................................................................................. 38 8.5 Output .............................................................................................................................................................. 38 Chapter 9: MInt - Macro and International Economics ................................................................ 42 9.1 Members of the research group and research in FTEs ............................................................................ 42 9.2 Programme design .......................................................................................................................................... 43 9.3 Programme evaluation ................................................................................................................................... 45 9.4 Resources and funding .................................................................................................................................. 46 9.5 Output .............................................................................................................................................................. 47 Chapter 10: Human Capital ........................................................................................................... 52 10.1 Members of the research group and research in FTEs .......................................................................... 52 10.2 Programme design ........................................................................................................................................ 53 10.3 Programme evaluation ................................................................................................................................. 54 10.4 Resources and funding ................................................................................................................................ 55 10.5 Output ............................................................................................................................................................ 55 Chapter 11: Experimental & Political Economics (CREED) ........................................................ 58 11.1 Members of the research group and research in FTEs .......................................................................... 58 11.2 Programme design .......................................................................................................................................