A publication of the Behavioral Science & bsp Policy Association spring 2015 vol. 1, no. 1 spotlight Challenging assumptions topic about behavioral policy I. Logo Design Application Laboratory Logo Application Options (Color) ) 1 BSPA Graphic Lock-Up ) 1 BSPA Acronym Graphic Lock-Up ) 1 BSP Journal Graphic Lock-up ) 1 BSP Journal Acronym Graphic Lock-Up The BSPA Graphic Lock-up The BSPA Acronym Graphic Lock-up The BSP Journal Graphic Lock-up The BSP Journal Acronym Graphic Lock-up 2015 Behavioral Science & Policy Association — CONFIDENTIAL A publication of the Behavioral Science & Policy Association founding co-editors disciplinary editors Craig R. Fox (UCLA) Sim B. Sitkin (Duke University) Behavioral Economics Senior Disciplinary Editor Dean S. Karlan (Yale University) advisory board Associate Disciplinary Editors Oren Bar-Gill (NYU) Colin F. Camerer (California Institute of Technology) Paul Brest (Stanford University) M. Keith Chen (UCLA) David Brooks (New York Times) Julian Jamison (Consumer Financial Protection Bureau) John Seely Brown (Deloitte) Russell B. Korobkin (UCLA) Robert B. Cialdini (Arizona State University) Devin G. Pope (University of Chicago) Daniel Kahneman (Princeton University) Jonathan Zinman (Dartmouth College) James G. March (Stanford University) Jefrey Pfefer (Stanford University) Cognitive & Brain Science Denise M. Rousseau (Carnegie Mellon University) Senior Disciplinary Editor Henry L. Roediger III (Washington University) Paul Slovic (University of Oregon) Associate Disciplinary Editors Yadin Dudai (Weizmann Institute & NYU) Cass R. Sunstein (Harvard University) Roberta L. Klatzky (Carnegie Mellon University) Richard H. Thaler (University of Chicago) Hal Pashler (UC San Diego) Steven E. Petersen (Washington University) bspa executive committee Jeremy M. Wolfe (Harvard University) Katherine L. Milkman (University of Pennsylvania) Todd Rogers (Harvard University) Decision, Marketing, & Management Sciences David Schkade (UC San Diego) Senior Disciplinary Editor Eric J. Johnson (Columbia University) Daniel Oppenheimer (UCLA Anderson) Associate Disciplinary Editors Linda C. Babcock (Carnegie Mellon University) Max H. Bazerman (Harvard University) bspa team Baruch Fischhof (Carnegie Mellon University) Diana L. Ascher, Director of Information (UCLA) John G. Lynch (University of Colorado) Catherine Clabby, Editorial Director John W. Payne (Duke University) Kaye N. de Kruif, Managing Editor (Duke University) John D. Sterman (MIT) George Wu (University of Chicago) consulting editors Organizational Science Dan Ariely (Duke University) Senior Disciplinary Editors Adam M. Grant (University of Pennsylvania) Shlomo Benartzi (UCLA) Michael L. Tushman (Harvard University) Laura L. Carstensen (Stanford University) Associate Disciplinary Editors Stephen R. Barley (Stanford University) Susan T. Fiske (Princeton University) Rebecca M. Henderson (Harvard University) Chip Heath (Stanford University) Thomas A. Kochan (MIT) David I. Laibson (Harvard University) Ellen E. Kossek (Purdue University) George Loewenstein (Carnegie Mellon University) Elizabeth W. Morrison (NYU) Richard E. Nisbett (University of Michigan) William Ocasio (Northwestern University) M. Scott Poole (University of Illinois) Jone L. Pearce (UC Irvine) Eldar Shafir (Princeton University) Sara L. Rynes-Weller (University of Iowa) Andrew H. Van de Ven (University of Minnesota) senior policy editor Carol L. Graham (Brookings Institution) Social Psychology Senior Disciplinary Editor Wendy Wood (University of Southern California) policy editors Associate Disciplinary Editors Dolores Albarracín (University of Pennsylvania) Susan M. Andersen (NYU) Education & Culture Thomas N. Bradbury (UCLA) Brian Gill (Mathematica) John F. Dovidio (Yale University) Ron Haskins (Brookings Institution) David A. Dunning (Cornell University) Nicholas Epley (University of Chicago) Energy & Environment E. Tory Higgins (Columbia University) J.R. DeShazo (UCLA) John M. Levine (University of Pittsburgh) Roger E. Kasperson (Clark University) Harry T. Reis (University of Rochester) Mark Lubell (UC Davis) Tom R. Tyler (Yale University) Timothy H. Profeta (Duke University) Sociology Financial Decision Making Senior Disciplinary Editors Peter S. Bearman (Columbia University) Werner DeBondt (DePaul University) Karen S. Cook (Stanford University) Arie Kapteyn (University of Southern California) Associate Disciplinary Editors Paula England (NYU) Annamaria Lusardi (George Washington University) Peter Hedstrom (Oxford University) Arne L. Kalleberg (University of North Carolina) Health James Moody (Duke University) Henry J. Aaron (Brookings Institution) Robert J. Sampson (Harvard University) Ross A. Hammond (Brookings Institution) Bruce Western (Harvard University) John R. Kimberly (University of Pennsylvania) Donald A. Redelmeier (University of Toronto) Kathryn Zeiler (Georgetown University) Justice & Ethics Matthew D. Adler (Duke University) Eric L. Talley (UC Berkeley) Management & Labor Peter Cappelli (University of Pennsylvania) A publication of the Behavioral Science & Policy Association spring 2015 vol. 1, no. 1 Craig R. Fox Sim B. Sitkin Editors Copyright © 2015 Behavioral Science & Policy Association Brookings Institution ISSN: ISBN (pbk): 978-0-8157-2508-4 ISBN (epub): 978-0-8157-2259-5 Behavioral Science & Policy is a publication of the Behavioral Science & Policy Association, P.O. Box 51336, Durham, NC 27717-1336, and is published twice yearly with the Brookings Institution, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036, and through the Brookings Institution Press. 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Specific written permission for other copying must be obtained from the Permissions Department, Brookings Institution Press, 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036; e-mail: [email protected] table of contents spring 2015 vol. 1, no. 1 Editors’ note v Bridging the divide between behavioral science and policy 1 Craig R. Fox & Sim B. Sitkin Spotlight: Challenging assumptions about behavioral policy Intuition is not evidence: Prescriptions for behavioral interventions 13 Timothy D. Wilson & Lindsay P. Juarez Small behavioral science-informed changes can produce large policy-relevant efects 21 Robert B. Cialdini, Steve J. Martin, & Noah J. Goldstein Active choosing or default rules? The policymaker’s dilemma 29 Cass R. Sunstein Warning: You are about to be nudged 35 George Loewenstein, Cindy Bryce, David Hagmann, & Sachin Rajpal Workplace practices and health outcomes: Focusing health policy on the workplace 43 Joel Goh, Jefrey Pfefer, & Stefanos A. Zenios Time to retire: Why Americans claim benefits early and how to encourage delay 53 Melissa A. Z. Knoll, Kirstin C. Appelt, Eric J. Johnson, & Jonathan E. Westfall Designing better energy metrics for consumers 63 Richard P. Larrick, Jack B. Soll, & Ralph L. Keeney Unblocking the relationship between payer mix, financial health, and quality of health care: Implications for hospital value-based reimbursement 77 Matthew Manary, Richard Staelin, William Boulding, & Seth W. Glickman Editorial policy 85 a publication of the behavioral science & policy association iii Finding Time to retire: Why Americans claim benefits early & how to encourage delay Melissa A. Z. Knoll, Kirstin C. Appelt, Eric J. Johnson, & Jonathan E. Westfall Summary. Because they are retiring earlier, living longer, and not saving enough for retirement, many Americans would benefit financially if they delayed claiming Social Security retirement benefits. However, almost half of Americans claim benefits as soon as possible. Responding to the Simpson– Bowles Commission’s 2010 recommendation that behavioral economics approaches be used to encourage delayed claiming, we analyzed this decision using query theory, which describes how the order in which people consider their options influences their choices. After confirming that people consider early claiming before and more often than they consider later claiming, we designed interventions intended to encourage later claiming. Changing how information was presented did not produce significant shifts, but asking people to focus on the future first significantly delayed preferred claiming ages. Policymakers can apply these insights. om has worked hard since his teen years and has $500 a month in retirement income (using the standard Tcontributed to the Social Security program for more rates provided in reference 2). than 40 years. A week before he turns 62 years old, Tom logs on to the Social Security website and sees friends at work point out that he will finally be able to that if he claims his benefits now, he will get $1,098 each start collecting Social Security