Operational Environment & Threat Analysis Volume 11, Issue 1 July 2020 Iranian Space Capabilities and Support to Military Operations Retaliatory tactics of Iranian Missile Strike: the Iranian military Implications of Iran’s Response APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE; DISTRIBUTION IS UNLIMITED OEE Red Diamond published by TRADOC G-2 Operational INSIDE THIS ISSUE Environment & Threat Analysis Directorate, Fort Leavenworth, KS Iranian Missile Strike: Topic Inquiries: Implications of Iran’s Response ............................... 3 Kevin Freese (DAC), Editor in Chief Retaliatory Tactics of the Iranian Military ................. 7 OE&TA Staff: Penny Mellies (DAC) Director, OE&TA Iranian Space Capabilities and Support [email protected] 913-684-7920 to Military Operations .......................................... 14 LTC Bryce Frederickson [email protected] 913-684-7944 WO2 Rob Whalley UK LO Iranian ATP Preview ............................................. 18 [email protected] 913-684-7994 Paula Devers (DAC) Intelligence Specialist Past is Present: Continuity in Iranian Foreign [email protected] 913-684-7907 SME Policy and Why it Matters ..................................... 20 Laura Deatrick (CTR) Editor [email protected] 913-684-7925 SME Iran in Iraq .......................................................... 24 Angela Williams (DAC) Branch Chief, T&S [email protected] 913-684-7929 WEG Updates ...................................................... 27 John Dalbey (CTR) Military Analyst [email protected] 913-684-7939 Jerry England (DAC) Intelligence Specialist Cover image sources: [right] Foreign CyberShafarat; [lower left] Hosein Velayati / CC BY 4.0; [background] [email protected] 913-684-7934 Google Earth. Rick Garcia (CTR) Military Analyst [email protected] 913-684-7991 This issue of Red Diamond features a variety of articles focused on Jay Hunt (CTR) Military Analyst Iran. While our readers typically expect a tactical-level focus from [email protected] 913-684-7960 our articles, this issue expands that context to a more strategic level Kris Lechowicz (DAC) Intelligence Specialist as a result of real-time events at the time of production, and the [email protected] 913-684-7922 Steven Sallot (CTR) Military Analyst expertise of our featured guest authors. Understanding why Iran [email protected] 913-684-5963 behaves the way it does will facilitate faithful emulation of Iranian analogs in training scenario development and execution. JamieT&S Stevenson (CTR) Military Analyst [email protected] 913-684-7995 Walt Williams (DAC) Intelligence Specialist Of particular interest are feature articles by renowned Iranian [email protected] 913-684-7923 subject matter experts Joseph Fallon and Michael Rubin. Joseph Fallon, currently at the think tank UK Defence Forum, places Jennifer Dunn (DAC) Branch Chief, A&P Iranian foreign policy in historical context, arguing that the [email protected] 913-684-7962 present Iranian regime’s actions are consistent with the objectives Rick Burns (CTR) Military Analyst of its predecessors—preservation of the regime by protecting [email protected] 913-684-7987 independence and securing territorial integrity. Michael Rubin of the Kevin Freese (DAC) Intelligence Specialist American Enterprise Institute explores the complexities of Iran-Iraq [email protected] 913-684-7938 relations. He argues that Iranian interest in dominating its Western William Hardy (DAC) Intelligence Specialist neighbor will never disappear, for myriad cultural, economic, and [email protected] 913-684-7901 strategic reasons. Iran’s ability to exert influence is only thwarted by Brad Marvel (CTR) Military Analyst continued Western commitment to ensuring Iraqi independence. [email protected] 913-684-7914 Vincent Matteo (CTR) Military Analyst Jerry England explores how Iran’s historically competing armed [email protected] 913-684-7903 forces are becoming increasingly expeditionary and retaliatory, Matt Matthews (CTR) Military Analyst and improving their ability to coordinate their efforts. He highlights [email protected]&P913-684-7761 diverse Iranian capabilities and techniques, ranging from ballistic Dave Pendleton (CTR) Military Analyst missiles to cyber-attack. Kevin Freese provides an overview of [email protected] 913-684-7946 Iranian space programs, analyzing Iran’s ability to support military Wayne Sylvester (CTR) Military Analyst operations through space and counter-space endeavors. Brad [email protected] 913-684-7941 Marvel provides a sneak preview of TRADOC G2’s upcoming Army Techniques Publication (ATP) 7-100.4, Iranian Tactics, planned for release in 2021. Finally, this issue provides a status report on updated The Red Diamond newsletter presents professional information but the views expressed herein are those of the authors, not the Department entries within TRADOC G2’s Worldwide Equipment Guide. of Defense or its elements. The content does not necessarily reflect the official US Army position and does not change or supersede Regards, Editorial Staff any information in other official US Army publications. Authors are responsible for the accuracy and source documentation of the material that they reference. The Red Diamond staff reserves the right to edit Red Diamond access via: material. Appearance of external hyperlinks does not constitute https://community.apan.org/wg/tradoc-g2/ace-threats-integration/ endorsement by the US Army for information contained therein. Red Diamond 2 Jul 2020 Iranian Missile Strike: Implications of Iran’s Response Source: https://www.dvidshub.net/image/6024487/ballistic-missile-attack-brings-unprecedented-amount-media-al-asad-airbase by Colin Christopher , TRADOC G-2 ran’s national goals are to expand the reach and at Erbil in northern Iraq. Al Asad airbase serves as an relevance of its brand of Shi’a Islam across the operational center for US military operations in western IMiddle East and to assume a position of regional Iraq and Erbil is a staging site for special operations, hegemony in line with its long history. Tehran views including operations in northern Iraq and Syria. The US influence in the region as its foremost barrier to attack, code named Operation “Martyr Soleimani” by these goals, and to secure them relies on the global use Iran, was in retaliation for the US drone strike that of proxy groups, terrorism, coercion, and the threat killed Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods and employment of armed force to target the United Force (IRCG-QF) Commander, Major-General Qassem States and its partners and allies. One of Iran’s primary Soleimani.1 tools of coercion and force projection is its missile arsenal, which is characterized by increasing numbers of Iran launched sixteen SRBMs in two waves about an relatively sophisticated systems with improved accuracy, hour apart. Of the sixteen missiles launched, eleven hit Ayn Al Asad airbase, one hit Erbil’s airbase, and range, and lethality. Recently, Tehran employed its 2 ballistic missiles in a strike against US installations in four missiles malfunctioned. Iran claims to have Iraq. Though the operation was clearly symbolic, Iran’s conducted “electronic war” during and after the strike, likely indicating they were attempting to jam US response showcased advanced capabilities revealing a 3 more capable adversary with an ability to challenge the counter-strike assets. Diplomatic channels provided US Army. US forces warning prior to the strikes, which limited US casualties.4 Post-strike analysis revealed damage to Overview of the strike structures, equipment, cratered runways, and traumatic brain injuries to dozens of US service members.5 The On January 7, 2020, Iran launched multiple short range lack of US fatalities, combined with the early political ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from three locations within warning, led to relatively rapid de-escalation, and since Iran against US Forces in Iraq. The missiles struck two the attack both sides have continued tense diplomacy. airbases; Ayn Al Asad in western Iraq and an airbase Red Diamond 3 Jul 2020 similar technology and Tehran can use ISA towards creating ICBMs. Further ambitions include increasing medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) capacity and expanding cruise missile capabilities.10 Iran is quickly evolving missile capability and the latest missile strike validates they can challenge their enemies with more proficient longer range fires. Integrated Electronic Warfare Iran utilizes modern electronic warfare (EW) equipment to protect high-value military assets. Brigadier General Amir Ali Figure 1. Map of Missile Strike Locations Hajizadeh, commander of IRGC Source: TRADOC G2. Aerospace Force, claimed Iran employed jamming during and Implications of Iran’s Response after the strikes, likely a defensive protocol to protect Missile Precision & Scale Progression against a US counterstrike. The Iranian government has satellite communications and GPS jamming capabilities, The attack against US forces revealed Iran’s current which Tehran previously showcased by jamming ships capability to fire different types of SRBMs at targets traveling through the Strait of Hormuz, according with better precision. They launched a barrage of to analysis by the Defense Intelligence Agency.11 In SRBMs from three locations within