New York ISO Independent System Operator 2021 Load & Capacity Data A report by The New York Independent System Operator, Inc. Gold Book 2021 Load & Capacity Data Report Disclaimer: The content of these materials are for information purposes and are provided “as is” without representation or warranty of any kind, including without limitation, accuracy, completeness or fitness for any particular purpose. The New York Independent System Operator, Inc. assumes no responsibility to the reader or any other party for the consequences of any errors or omissions. Released April 2021 2021 Load & Capacity Data Report | ii 2021 Load & Capacity Data Report Table of Contents OVERVIEW .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Historical and Forecast Energy Usage and Seasonal Peak Demand ................................................................................................... 1 Generation and Other Capacity Resources ............................................................................................................................................ 3 Transmission Facilities ........................................................................................................................................................................... 5 SECTION I ANNUAL ENERGY & PEAK DEMAND – HISTORICAL & FORECAST ......................................................................... 7 COVID-19 Impacts ................................................................................................................................................................................... 9 Forecast Tables ..................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Load Scenario Summary ....................................................................................................................................................................... 15 Table I-1a: NYCA Baseline Energy and Demand Forecasts................................................................................................................. 17 Figure I-1: NYCA Energy Forecasts – Annual Energy, GWh ................................................................................................................. 18 Figure I-2: NYCA Summer Peak Forecasts – Coincident Peak, MW ................................................................................................... 18 Figure I-3: NYCA Winter Peak Forecasts – Coincident Peak, MW ....................................................................................................... 19 Figure I-4: NYCA Baseline Peak Forecast Comparison – Coincident Peak, MW ................................................................................ 19 Table I-1b: Summary of NYCA Baseline Annual Energy Forecasts – GWh ......................................................................................... 20 Table I-1c: Summary of NYCA Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand Forecasts – MW.......................................................... 21 Table I-1d: Summary of NYCA Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand Forecasts – MW............................................................. 22 Table I-2: Baseline Annual Energy, Historical & Forecast ................................................................................................................... 23 Table I-3a: Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast ................................................................................ 24 Table I-3b: Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast ................................................................................... 25 Table I-4a: Baseline Summer Non-Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast ........................................................................ 26 Table I-4b: Baseline Winter Non-Coincident Peak Demand, Historical & Forecast ........................................................................... 27 Table I-5: Baseline Peak Demand in G-to-J Locality, Historical & Forecast ........................................................................................ 28 Table I-6a: 90th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Energy due to Weather........................................................................................... 29 Table I-6b: 10th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Energy due to Weather........................................................................................... 30 Table I-7a: 90th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ........................................... 31 Table I-7b: 10th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Summer Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ............................................ 32 Table I-7c: 90th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ................................................ 33 Table I-7d: 10th Percentile Forecast of Baseline Winter Coincident Peak Demand due to Weather ................................................ 34 Table I-8a: Energy Efficiency and Codes & Standards Energy Impacts .............................................................................................. 35 Table I-8b: Energy Efficiency and Codes & Standards Summer Peak Impacts .................................................................................. 36 Table I-8c: Energy Efficiency and Codes & Standards Winter Peak Impacts ..................................................................................... 37 Table I-9a: Solar PV Nameplate Capacity, Behind-the-Meter.............................................................................................................. 38 Table I-9b: Solar PV Annual Energy Reductions, Behind-the-Meter.................................................................................................... 39 Table I-9c: Solar PV Peak Reductions, Behind-the-Meter ................................................................................................................... 40 Table I-9d: Maximum Solar PV Generation, Behind-the-Meter ........................................................................................................... 41 Table I-10a: Non-Solar Distributed Generation Nameplate Capacity, Behind-the-Meter ................................................................. 42 Table I-10b: Non-Solar Distributed Generation Annual Energy Reductions ....................................................................................... 43 Table I-10c: Non-Solar Distributed Generation Peak Reductions, Behind-the-Meter ........................................................................ 44 Table I-11a: Electric Vehicle Stock Forecast ........................................................................................................................................ 45 Table I-11b: Electric Vehicle Annual Energy Usage ............................................................................................................................. 46 Table I-11c: Electric Vehicle Summer Coincident Peak Demand ....................................................................................................... 47 Table I-11d: Electric Vehicle Winter Coincident Peak Demand ......................................................................................................... 48 Table I-12a: Energy Storage Nameplate Capacity ............................................................................................................................... 49 Table I-12b: Energy Storage Energy Impacts ....................................................................................................................................... 50 Table I-12c: Energy Storage Summer Coincident Peak Reductions ................................................................................................... 51 Table I-12d: Energy Storage Winter Coincident Peak Reductions ...................................................................................................... 52 Table I-13b: Non-EV Electrification Summer Coincident Peak Demand ........................................................................................... 54 Table I-13c: Non-EV Electrification Winter Coincident Peak Demand ................................................................................................ 55 Table I-13d: Electrification Impacts by Scenario ................................................................................................................................ 56 Table I-14: Projection of SCR and EDRP Enrollment ........................................................................................................................... 57 Table I-15: Historical NYCA System Peak Demand ............................................................................................................................. 58 Table I-16a: Summary of NYCA Low Load Scenario Annual Energy Forecasts – GWh ...................................................................... 59 Table I-16b: Summary of NYCA Low Load Scenario Summer Coincident Peak Demand Forecasts – MW ...................................... 60 Table I-16c: Summary of NYCA Low Load Scenario Winter Coincident Peak Demand Forecasts – MW ........................................