Equality and Human Rights Commission Research report 47 The equality impacts of the current recession Terence Hogarth, David Owen, Lynn Gambin, Chris Hasluck, Clare Lyonette and Bernard Casey Warwick Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick The equality impacts of the current recession Terence Hogarth, David Owen, Lynn Gambin, Chris Hasluck, Clare Lyonette and Bernard Casey Warwick Institute for Employment Research University of Warwick Equality and Human Rights Commission 2009 First published Autumn 2009 ISBN 978 1 84206 241 8 Equality and Human Rights Commission Research Report Series The Equality and Human Rights Commission Research Report Series publishes research carried out for the Commission by commissioned researchers. The views expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Commission. The Commission is publishing the report as a contribution to discussion and debate. Please contact the Research Team for further information about other Commission research reports, or visit our website: Research Team Equality and Human Rights Commission Arndale House The Arndale Centre Manchester M4 3AQ Email: [email protected] Telephone: 0161 829 8500 Website: www.equalityhumanrights.com You can download a copy of this report as a PDF from our website: www.equalityhumanrights.com If you require this publication in an alternative format, please contact the Communications Team to discuss your needs at: [email protected] Contents Page Tables and figures i Acknowledgements iv Executive summary v 1. Introduction 1 1.1 The current recession 1 1.2 The study 2 1.3 The analysis 3 1.4 Structure of the report 4 2. The consequences of the current recession for the UK labour market 5 2.1 Introduction 5 2.2 The origins of the current recession 5 2.2 Age 2.3 The current recession in historical context 6 2.4 The impact of the recession on employment and worklessness 9 2.5 The differential impact of recession on the labour market 17 2.6 Conclusion 22 3. Gender 23 3.1 Introduction 23 3.2 Measures used to examine the impact of the recession 23 2.2 Age 3.3 The impact of previous recessions on women's employment 26 3.4 Interactions between gender, age, disability and ethnicity 29 3.5 The current recession 31 3.6 Effects on vulnerable women 36 3.7 Regional differences 39 3.8 Other impacts of the recession on women and men 39 3.9 The future of women's and men's employment post-recession 41 3.10 Conclusion 42 4. Age 43 4.1 Introduction 43 4.2 Older workers and employment 44 2.2 Age 4.3 The impact of the current recession on older people‟s employment 48 4.4 The impact of the current recession on young people‟s employment 54 4.5 Conclusion 60 5. Disability 62 5.1 Introduction 62 5.2 Defining disability 63 2.2 Age 5.3 The labour market performance of disabled people 64 5.4 The labour market position of disabled people aged 25-49 68 5.5 Previous recessions and evidence of the impact on disabled people 74 5.6 The impact of the current recession on disabled people 78 5.7 Conclusion 80 6. Ethnicity 82 6.1 Introduction 82 Page 6.2 The labour market performance of people from ethnic minority groups 83 2.2 Age 6.3 Previous recessions and evidence of the impact on ethnic minority groups 90 6.4 The impact of the current recession on ethnic minority groups 92 6.5 Conclusion 96 7. Projections of employment 98 7.1 Introduction 98 7.2 Caveats to the projections 98 2.2 Age 7.3 The economy and employment over the medium term 99 7.4 Projections of employment 102 7.5 Projections of employment by gender 110 7.6 Projections of employment by age group 121 7.7 Projections of employment by disability status 133 7.8 Projections of employment by ethnic group 146 7.9 The impact on employment and unemployment rates for particular groups 161 7.10 Conclusion 162 8. Projections of employment by nation 164 8.1 Introduction 164 8.2 Overall trends 164 2.2 Age 8.3 Gender 166 8.4 Age 170 8.5 Disability 175 8.6 Ethnicity 177 8.7 Conclusion 182 9. Conclusion 184 9.1 The economy and employment 184 9.2 The recession and equality 185 2.2 Age 9.3 The evidence from previous recessions 185 9.4 The economic recovery 187 9.5 Future implications of the recession 188 9.6 The equality agenda and the recession 190 Annex A Sectoral and occupational change 193 Annex B Additional tables for national projections 195 References 203 Tables and figures Page Tables 2.1 Four recent periods of recession in the UK 7 2.2 Unemployment in the last three UK recessions 15 2.3 JSA claimants February 2009, by usual occupation, Great Britain 18 4.1 Relative responsiveness of labour force participation to economic performance 50 4.2 Coefficient on output gap for older men 52 4.3 Comparisons of past and projected economic downturns 52 4.4 Coefficient on output gap for 65-69 year old people, 1984-2005 54 4.5 Applications to university by UK residents 58 5.1 Employment position of disabled people 67 5.2 Economic activity by disability status for men aged 25-49 69 5.3 Economic activity by disability status for women aged 25-49 69 5.4 Occupational distribution of employment by disability status for men aged 25-49 72 5.5 Occupational distribution of employment by disability status for women aged 25-49 74 6.1 Median earnings per hour by ethnic group for employees aged 18 and over, 1998-2004, UK 90 6.2 Working age labour market rates by ethnic group, 2008 95 6.3 Working age labour market rates by ethnic group and gender 96 7.1 Macroeconomic indicators 102 7.2 Employment outlook to 2020 103 7.3 Male and female employment 112 7.4 Employment outlook by age 122 7.5 Employment outlook for disabled people 135 7.6 Employment outlook for ethnic minorities 148 7.7 Projected unemployment rates, 2008-20 161 8.1 Sub-national employment totals, 1993-2020 165 8.2 Sub-national annual rates of employment change, 1993-2020 166 8.3 Sub-national gender shares of employment, 1993-2020 167 8.4 Sub-national employment totals by age group, 1993-2020 171 8.5 Sub-national annual rates of employment change by age group, 1993-2020 172 8.6 Sub-national employment shares by age group, 1993-2020 173 8.7 Sub-national employment by type of disability, 1993-2020 175 8.8 Annual rate of change in sub-national employment by type of disability, 1993-2020 176 8.9 Sub-national employment shares by type of disability, 1993-2020 177 8.10 Sub-national employment by ethnic group, 1993-2020 178 8.11 Annual rate of change in employment by ethnic group, 1993-2020 180 8.12 Sub-national employment shares by ethnic group, 1993-2020 181 i Page B1 England: employment by age group and occupation, 1993-2020 195 B2 Scotland: employment by age group and occupation, 1993-2020 197 B3 Wales: employment by age group and occupation, 1993-2020 199 B4 London: employment by age group and occupation, 1993-2020 201 Figures 2.1 Gross Value Added, quarterly 1970-2008 8 2.2 Quarterly change in Gross Value Added, 1970-2008 9 2.3 UK output and employment, 1970-2008 11 2.4 UK output and employment, 1990-95 12 2.5 UK output and unemployment, 2006-08 12 2.6 UK employment and unemployment, 1970-2008 13 2.7 UK output and unemployment, 1974-90 14 2.8 UK output and unemployment, 1988-2002 14 2.9 UK output and unemployment, 2006-08 15 2.10 Unemployment and earnings, 1990-2000, Great Britain 16 2.11 Earnings, 2005-09, Great Britain 17 3.1 Unemployment rate by gender, 1979-2009 23 3.2 Redundancy rate by gender per 1,000 employees 24 3.3 Workforce jobs by gender, percentage shares, December 2008 34 4.1 Relationship between age and unemployment 46 4.2 Claiming count stock by younger and older age groups 46 4.3 Output gap and older men's labour force participation 51 4.4 Index of older people‟s employment rates 54 4.5 NEET rate: 16-18 year olds in England 57 5.1 Percentage of the working age population reporting a disability, 1998-2008 64 5.2 Activity rates for disabled and non-disabled men and women, 1998-2008 66 5.3 Occupational distribution of employment for men, 2008 71 5.4 Occupational distribution of employment for women, 2008 73 5.5 Number of Incapacity Benefit claimants 78 6.1 Economic activity rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 84 6.2 Male economic activity rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 84 6.3 Female economic activity rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 85 6.4 Employment rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 86 6.5 Male employment rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 86 6.6 Female employment rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 87 6.7 Unemployment rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 88 6.8 Male unemployment rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 88 6.9 Female unemployment rates by ethnic group, 1992-2008 89 6.10 Claimant unemployment by ethnic group, 2006-09 94 7.1 Employment trends for men and women, 1992-2020 104 7.2 Employment trends for full-time and part-time employment, 1981-2020 105 7.3 Employment levels assuming different rates of recovery 106 7.4 Sectoral trends in employment 107 ii Page 7.5 Change in employment by sector 108 7.6 Occupational change to 2020 109 7.7 Changes in employment by occupation 110 7.8 Employment by gender, 1981-2020 113 7.9 Men‟s and women‟s employment under different scenarios 114 7.10 Male and female sectoral employment 116 7.11 Changes in male and female sectoral employment 117 7.12 Male and female occupational employment 118 7.13 Changes in male and female occupational employment 120 7.14 Employment by age group, 1992-2020 123 7.15 Employment by age group and gender, 1992-2020 124 7.16 Alternative medium-term trends: age 126 7.17 Sectoral employment by age 128 7.18 Changes in employment