OTTAWA NEXT BEYOND 2036 Draft Final Report Scenarios, Change Drivers, and Planning Considerations January 2019 Photo: Moriyama & Teshima Architects TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.0 Executive Summary .....................................................................................................................................1 2.0 Preface.........................................................................................................................................................2 3.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................3 3.1 CONTEXT .............................................................................................................................................................3 3.2 BACKGROUND .....................................................................................................................................................3 3.3 REPORT OUTLINE .................................................................................................................................................3 4.0 Planning for Liveability in the Future ..........................................................................................................4 4.1 WHY SCENARIO PLANNING? ...............................................................................................................................4 5.0 Methodology ...............................................................................................................................................7 5.1 OTTAWA NEXT: BEYOND 2036 STUDY – PROJECT TIMELINE ...............................................................................7 5.2 LITERATURE REVIEW ...........................................................................................................................................7 5.3 SOUNDING BOARD ..............................................................................................................................................7 5.4 IDENTIFYING DRIVERS OF CHANGE ....................................................................................................................7 5.5 DEVELOPING POTENTIAL FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR OTTAWA .............................................................................7 5.6 DEVELOPING PLANNING CONSIDERATIONS .......................................................................................................8 5.7 PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT STRATEGY .......................................................................................................................8 6.0 Scenarios, Drivers of Change, and Planning Considerations .......................................................................9 6.1 ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ...............................................................................................................................10 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................................................................11 Drivers of Change and Planning Considerations .................................................................................................................................14 6.2 SOCIAL/CULTURAL AND QUALITY OF LIFE .........................................................................................................20 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................................................................21 Drivers of Change and Planning Considerations .................................................................................................................................24 6.3 ENVIRONMENT ..................................................................................................................................................31 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................................................................32 Drivers of Change and Planning Considerations .................................................................................................................................35 6.4 URBAN FORM AND MOBILITY ...........................................................................................................................41 Scenarios ............................................................................................................................................................................................42 Drivers of Change and Planning Considerations .................................................................................................................................45 7.0 Conclusion .................................................................................................................................................54 References .......................................................................................................................................................55 Acknowledgements .........................................................................................................................................58 Annexes ...........................................................................................................................................................59 - ii - EXECUTIVE 1.0 SUMMARY In December 2016, Ottawa City Council directed staff The scenarios and planning considerations identified in to undertake a planning study to “…identify trends this report will help to inform the setting of priorities in housing, employment, and identify opportunities within the next Official Plan, and may also frame the to create complete communities which, together with updates of the City’s other supporting Growth Manage- current Official Plan policies create an affordable and ment documents including the: sustainable city beyond 2036…” • Transportation Master Plan; The goal of the Ottawa Next: Beyond 2036 study was to • Infrastructure Master Plan; identify the forces that will shape Ottawa over the next century to help position the City to build both resiliency • Greenspace Master Plan; and the and adaptability into the next Official Plan. In order to carry • Development Charges By-law. out this goal and to address the high level of uncertainty of the city’s long-term future, Ottawa Next: Beyond 2036 was undertaken as a scenario based planning study to: • identify trends and disruptors that will influence the city beyond the current 20-year planning horizon; • identify possible future scenarios, which extend beyond the normal planning time-frame and arise from the identified drivers and disrupters; and • identify planning considerations that will allow the City to create complete communities and be resilient and adaptable to future change. Photo: City of Ottawa Photo: - 1 - 2.0 PREFACE The City of Ottawa’s vision is to become the most liveable As part of the Ottawa Next: Beyond 2036 engagement mid-sized city in North America over the next century. strategy, the City reached out to Ottawa residents via There is no singular definition of liveability and what an online questionnaire to ask what liveability meant to one person finds important to liveability may not be them (Annex 1). Of the 302 respondents, the majority shared by others. However, despite the lack of a universal felt that liveability means: definition, liveability can be described as the many • vibrant, safe and inclusive neighbourhoods where elements that create a quality of life in a given place. everything you need is within walking distance A liveable city or place should be more than just habitable. and is accessible to people with reduced mobility, It should provide safety, quality education, choices in including jobs, services, shopping, schools, greenspace, mobility, opportunities to financially support oneself, and recreational opportunities; access to health care, shops, services, public space and • a diversity of housing options that meet the needs natural areas as well as recreational and cultural oppor- of residents; tunities. Liveability supports physical and emotional health by creating environments where people can thrive. It • affordable, accessible and convenient public should give its citizens the sense of freedom that comes transit, safe cycling and walking infrastructure from knowing that each person can pursue their own including reduced reliance on the car; fulfilment within a supportive, equitable and enriching • good-quality job opportunities; and social environment. Liveability also extends to the security and resiliency of the aforementioned elements to ensure • a healthy natural environment and lots of greenspace. stable and adaptive access that meets shared public need. Ottawa is well placed to address ongoing and future A key component to Ottawa’s progress towards being changes to maintain and expand its current liveability. the most liveable mid-sized city in North America is Ottawa boasts an existing high quality of life supported the establishment of complete communities. Complete by its culturally rich and diverse social and built envi- communities are defined as: ronments, its remarkable natural environment, positive growth patterns, its stable yet increasingly diverse economy, “Places such as mixed-use neighbourhoods